Rocking the Red in Pittsburgh

Last-Minute Trade Deadline Thoughts

2012-02-26T09:19:00.000-05:00

The trade deadline, as of the time I am writing this, is roughly 30 hours away. Our boys in red are currently one point out of the playoffs with 20 games to go, and there is no timetable for number one center Nicklas Backstrom's return. With Jeff Carter and Antoine Vermette traded out of Columbus already, the pickings are slim for a top-notch second line center that could also fill in on the first line while Nicky gets healthy. Someone that has both size and offensive prowess, not to mention the ability to win faceoffs and get off some good passes. The big problem is that the Capitals have what amounts to no cap space. They cannot even afford the league minimum salary for a call-up at this point. Good centers that fit the mold above are going to cost somewhere in the range of $3.5-6 million per year.

Many people have floated the names of potential suitors with the implications that they could possibly play well along Alexander Semin, possibly being a "Sasha-whisperer" in the vein of Jason Arnott (who really should have just been kept on the team instead of...well, we'll get into that briefly). The problem with that line of thinking is that it assumes two things: 1) That Alex Semin will be with the team after this season, and 2) That Alex Semin will be with the team after Monday afternoon. Semin is the second-highest paid player on the team behind Ovechkin and tied with Backstrom, and is also the highest paid pending-UFA in the entire National Hockey League. In fact, the only soon-to-be free agent with a higher salary is pending-RFA Shea Weber out of Nashville. What this means is that in any trade involving a non-Weber RFA or UFA player, moving Alex Semin automatically frees up the necessary cap space.

Semin has been roughly a point-per-game player since Dale Hunter took over, and quite possibly the team's best player during that stretch as a result. With Semin, though, this is not unexpected. Neither was his lack of production in the waning days of the Boudreau Era. Like it or not, his future with the team is and always has been hazy at best. Signing a center to play alongside him for years to come could be a big mistake if Semin ends up not being in the teams plans after all. The first thing McPhee needs to do is decide how long he intends to keep the "other Alex," and then that should give him an idea of what his options at center are.

If he does decide to keep Semin, salary cap space has to be freed up via salary dumps, a.k.a trading for picks and prospects. To match Semin's salary, several players would have to move. Three players with a salary cap total of $7 million, just $300k more than Semin's hit, were scratched for both of the last two games: RW Mike Knuble and defensemen John Erskine and Roman Hamrlik. The writing on the wall suggests that these are the three that are most likely to move. Erskine being traded is not that surprising, as he has been knocked down to 8th on the depth chart on a good day. Knuble is approaching 40 and has been, for reasons that are unknown and would boggle the mind if they were, relegated primarily to 4th line duty this season and has seen a corresponding dip in offense. Boston and San Jose would love to have him, the former because of his history on the team and the latter to reunite him with Joe Thornton, but really, any team in the league would love to steal him from McPhee, as he immediately makes any team a better team, as long as they give him the top minutes he so clearly deserves and needs. Hamrlik was acquired just this past summer on a two-year deal, and has not lived up to expectations. Recently, he has shown frustration with Hunter, and appears ready to pack his bags at a moment's notice with a smile on his face. One thing all these guys have in common is that they want to play hockey, and they are not playing as much as expected in Washington.

If these players are all moved for picks/prospects, the Semin decision can once again be held off until the offseason, and just about any player can be picked up by 3:00 p.m. Monday, regardless of what GMGM gives back in return. But the Capitals best bet would be to pick up a player who can succeed without Semin as well as with him. What it really comes down to is this: for the next 30 hours or so, Alex Semin is the most important player on the Washington Capitals, and George McPhee needs a damn good crystal ball to figure out why.

Captaining the Caps

2012-02-24T14:09:00.000-05:00

Let me preface this by saying I have never played hockey. I've never played on a varsity team, but I have played on JV squads in other sports (wrestling and rugby). So while I can't say that I know exactly what the most desirable traits are in the captain of a hockey squad, I have at lease some exposure to team sports and captaincy.

It is my opinion that Ovechkin should relinquish the "C" to Brooks Laich this offseason. Doing so right now would merely add more turmoil and misplaced focus to an already fragile Caps squad, but I do think it would be for the best once the season is over.

I am not saying, by any means, that Ovechkin is not a leader on the Capitals, nor that he is an ineffective leader. I simply believe that he is not the best leader on the team. What I do believe is that Ovechkin is usually one of the best leaders on the ice in terms of passion for the game and skill. His numbers may be slumping as of late, and people have questioned his effort accordingly. But watch his reaction when anybody on the team scores. Watch his face when the team is down. Watch him absolutely blow someone up because they dared lay a heavy hit on him. This is a guy who cares about winning and about his team, regardless of how many coaches rotate in and how many talking heads say otherwise. You will never convince me otherwise.

What I am convinced of is that these alone are not the only qualifications for leading as team captain. Brooks Laich embodies those qualities a little better. There is a reason that his name comes up every single time someone questions who should be captain, just as talks of who should be captain come up every time he gives a presser. It is no secret that his voice is one of the loudest and most respected in the locker room, along with that of Mike Knuble. Unlike Laich, though, Knuble does not have a fresh six-year deal that clearly pays him as much for his leadership skills as his hockey skills.

On the ice, Laich is a leader as well. For all of Ovechkin's skills, you probably won't see him suiting up as a center one day, left wing the next, and then filling in on defense next week. Laich is an all-around player. As much as I love Ovi, he just doesn't fit that description. I think the Great 8 is the best player on the team, but that the best player on the team does not necessarily have to be the captain.

The L.A. Kings chose Dustin Brown, a 20-goal two-way forward as their captain. The Penguins chose Sidney Crosby, who (good lord I hate saying this) established himself as the best player in the league when he is healthy. The Kings have plenty of talent, plenty of players who have more offensive talent than Brown, especially now that they have Mike Richards and Jeff Carter on the team to join Anze Kopitar, but Brown is the guy who better exemplifies what they need in a captain. Part of me thinks that the Caps looked at the Penguins a little too much when they chose their best player as their captain. But who else would they have chosen? Nobody else remotely worthy of the role, aside from Evgeni Malkin, was really guaranteed to be there for a substantial period of time, and the Penguins were going through as much of a rebuild as the Caps.

When Chris Clark was injured for the better part of three seasons before ultimately being traded while still holding the captaincy, it made a lot of sense to make Ovi his replacement. He was on top of the world, a whirlwind force on the ice, and the face of the franchise. Laich wasn't guaranteed to be around, because the Caps were still forming their new identity. Whether Ovechkin was truly ready for the role is a whole different story, and one that none of us who are not close to him personally can ever truly attest to. What can be attested to now is that Laich is the guy that many fans and much of the media look to as the true leader and heart of the team off the ice, and as a more than capable player and leader on the ice. He is the guy who runs warm-ups, and has for five years.

Aside from Laich being the guy I think would be the best captain for the team right now, especially through turmoil and regime change, I think it could possibly be better for Ovechkin right now, too. Much has been made of Olie Kolzig's comments that Ovi needs to get back to his younger years and back off from his "rock star" image. I don't think those comments are meant to be nearly as negative as many have made them out to be. I think it is more a call for him to remove distractions and focus on his game, to not get quite so caught up in all the pressures of his life and being pulled in 100 different directions from the team, the league, the coaches, the media, the sponsors, the fans, and everyone else. Whether or not it is a phantom correlation (X and Y appear correlated, but only because Z is happening at the same time), Ovechkin's offensive production has plummeted since taking on the captain's role. Removing one more pressure from his life could arguably help him regain his focus, helping his production and by proxy, the team. Admittedly, that may be a bit of a stretch, but it is still a factor that should be considered.

If the Capitals could have co-captains, I would be 100% behind Ovechkin and Laich sharing the role. But since the NHL does not allow teams to have co-captains, I think that Laich should have a shot starting next season. Again, this is really nothing against Ovechkin, but is instead praise for Laich and recognition that the team is going through changes one way or another. A different captain may help facilitate that change.

A Different Look at the Trade Deadline

2012-02-13T16:02:00.002-05:00

Much has been written, if not too much, about the looming trade deadline and what it could mean for the Washington Capitals. We are all playing armchair GM, watching twitter and our websites of choice for rumors, reading way too much into healthy scratches, forecasting what could be the next big move, etc. I am just as guilty as the next, if not more so, of all this. I have been very hesitant to write much recently, because I am not the type who likes to say the same things over and over again, and I found that was the road I was heading down.

For what it's worth, and to get it out of the way, I think the main, if not only, move the Caps should make is to acquire Jeff Carter at nearly whatever price is necessary. If the only knock against him is his attitude while playing on the worst team in the league, that's fine with me. I'll take a 40 goal scoring center who can win faceoffs and play both sides of special teams and has a history of playing on a more physical team if his worst trait is that he is bitter about being moved from a Cup-contender to a loser team without so much as a heads up. I don't see him as the team cancer that Jagr was, and I do see his contract as a good thing, because it is increasingly difficult to get someone with his skill level for under $6 million, let alone locked in at a little over five.

With that out of the way, we move on to the point of this post. In law school, you're taught to try to take a slightly different look at things in order to find the best outcome for you and your client. So how about this: rather than figure out who McPhee should acquire, and who/what he should give up in order to do so, why not start even more basic and look at who needs to stay?

I will break it down into two groups. "Absolutely must stay" means that shy of being offered a combination Malkin, Datsyuk, a Sedin, and/or Weber, there is no way these guys should be moved now or in the next three years. "Too valuable" means these are the players who compliment the stars, have versatile roles, or otherwise have some serious value to the team that while it would not destroy the team to lose one of them, Slapshot would be walking around with a limp for a while - although some of them could walk in the summer and be replaced. If you don't see a player's name, then he can be considered for whatever fantastical trade you wish. Some of this will seem obvious, some you may vehemently disagree with, but I urge you to think about it.

Absolutely Must Stay

Alex Ovechkin (53GP, 23G, 21A, 138 hits) - Obviously. The Captain, the face of the franchise, one of the league's premier stars. Whatever the reason behind his nearly two year long slump, he is not going anywhere.
Nick Backstrom (38GP, 13G, 29A) - The other obvious choice. One of the top centers in the league, regardless of how low he is ranked on some analysts' top players lists, he is almost as important to the Capitals as Ovechkin.
John Carlson (55GP, 7G, 20A, RFA) - His sophomore season is looking a little rough at times, but that is partially because we have set the bar so high for our Real American Hero. His potential upside is so high for a player of his youth, and he could easily grow into one of the organization's greatest defensemen. Along with the next two guys on the list, you're looking at the foundation of what can and should be one of the best defensive squads in the league.
Karl Alzner (55GP, 1G, 12A, +15) - Ever-so-slightly more seasoned than his pal Carlson, Alzner is developing into one of the top shutdown defensemen in the league. The contract he signed should have gotten his agent fired, but it showed some loyalty to the team, and without him right now, our defense is probably done for.
Mike Green (10GP, 3G, 3A, RFA) - This is where people start arguing with me. I stand by the fact that he was nominated for the Norris Trophy in back-to-back years, and that was before he rounded out the defensive aspect of his game. Getting him back healthy is incredibly important, and you just do not let go of one of the league's top defensemen solely because he had a string of bad luck with pucks and elbows to the noggin and an awkward fall or two. The Islanders would never let go of Mark Streit for those reasons, and neither should the Caps ever let go of Green. A pay cut for the next season or two is almost certainly in order, but he needs to get that paycheck from Washington and not somewhere else.
Brooks Laich (55GP, 10G, 18A) - McPhee essentially put him in this category with his most recent contract, and it was a move I totally agreed with. Laich might not always put up the most dazzling numbers, and he will never reach superstar status, but if you are looking for the heart of the Caps, you're looking for Brooks Laich. Currently the most versatile guy on the team, he has played all skating positions at some point this season, including a brief stint on the blueline. There aren't many guys in the league who can do what he does and maintain a high level of play throughout. He's a keeper.
Dmitry Orlov (37GP, 1G, 7A, 57 hits) - A somewhat unexpected permanent addition to the roster, Orlov has shown himself to be more than capable of handling the NHL in his rookie season. He's still prone to the occasional gaffe, but his stick-handling and physicality are top-notch, and he is only going to get better. With Carlzner and Green, you're looking at a very solid and dangerous group for years to come.
The Prospects: Braden Holtby (G), Evgeny Kuznetsov (F), Stanislav Galiev (F) - Holtby, I believe, is the goalie of the future for the Caps squad, at least if you're looking only within the organization. He has struggled a bit in Hershey, but showed last season that he is capable of greatness. Kuznetsov has been making us drool here in the States while he embarrasses so many over in the KHL. I'm also going with the unconventional choice of Galiev over fan-favorite Cody Eakin. He has been very public not only with his desire to play for Washington, but for the desire to earn the spot, too. He can score and hit, and that's just my kind of player. In an organization that is low on top-six centers but fairly heavy on guys that can play on the bottom-six, I don't see Eakin being as valuable as a guy like Galiev in the long haul.

Too Valuable

Dennis Wideman (55GP, 10G, 28A, UFA) - The team's only All-Star representative to attend the festivities, third on the team in points, and third in the NHL in points for defensemen, he has endeared himself to the Caps organization and the fans. What keeps him from the must-stay list is partially due to how crowded I have already made that group of blueliners. Wideman's value is as an offensive defenseman, value the team already has with pending-RFAs Carlson and Green. Orlov, too, has shown some offensive upside. In the long haul, Wideman is not essential. His season has probably earned him a raise from almost $4 million he got this year, and while it would suck to have him walk in the offseason for no return when the Caps are likely unable to give him what he wants, losing him at the trade deadline could prove even more disastrous.
Matt Hendricks (51GP, 3G, 4A, 72PIM, 128 hits) - Locked in for another year at $825k, Hendricks is a great player at a great value. While he isn't having quite the offensive season he had last year, that was never his reason for making the team in the first place. He is a surprisingly versatile bottom-six forward who is more than capable in the dot, winning 54.5% of his draws this season, and he is not at all afraid to hit and fight. While nobody seems to have informed Dale Hunter, he is also the team's resident shootout specialist, scoring on half of his attempts during his time in DC. He brings a lot of grit to the team while still being a lingering scoring threat, and realistically would not fetch much in return in a trade. With no reason at all to move him, there is every reason to keep him rocking the red.
Thomas Vokoun (40GP, 22-13-2, 4 SO, 2.45GAA, .920 SV%, UFA) - Worth far more than the paltry $1.5 million that he got from McPhee this summer, Vokoun really was the best signing of the year for the team. Without him, there is no way the team would even be sniffing the playoffs right now. Unfortunately for us, there is also no way he will stick around for backup-goalie pay. He's getting a little old, but given his consistency over the years he deserves a much bigger paycheck. Parting with him now would be ludicrous, but the Blackhawks, Blues, and even the Flyers have shown that there are a lot of diamonds in the rough out there when it comes to goalies, and you don't have to pay an arm and a leg to get them. Hell, McPhee showed that, himself.
Mathieu Perreault (37GP, 9G, 7A, RFA) - Easily the most controversial call I'm making here, Perreault is the last name you will see with a bullet point. Yes, that means that I think Brouwer, Johansson, and Neuvirth could all be replaced or upgraded or traded without significant downside for the team, but I do not think the same could be said for Perreault. I have not exactly hidden my fanboy-dom for our resident small guy, but even I recognize this may be pushing it. Here's the thing, though: he leads the team in even strength goals- and points-per-sixty minutes, and by a significant margin. He has been in the top five for these two metrics nearly the entire season. When he was on a line with Hendricks and Halpern, they scored. When he is on a line with Semin, they score. Perreault is the kind of player that, if you use him properly, will produce and will bring out the best in those around him. He can create plays behind and in front of the net in part because his size allows him to be more nimble than the average player. When not used properly, though, he disappears. Claims of inconsistency focus on the fact that he is not scoring every single game, or that he may go a couple weeks without a goal. I would much rather have that inconsistency than a guy like Beagle who consistently brings virtually nothing to the table. Like Hendricks, though, Perreault would not fetch much in return for any trade. He has shown bursts of remarkable skill, and really has not been a defensiveness weakness on the ice very often, either. Eakin, Aucoin, and Beagle are all less effective in the lineup than Perreault, and MP85 has shown success and chemistry with the top scorers, a feat that even Johansson has had trouble with. Losing Perreault to likely gain a late round draft pick or a permanent AHLer would mean putting someone with less skill and team chemistry in the lineup, and that is something the Caps cannot afford right now.

So there you have it: Five forwards, five defensemen, a goalie, and a handful of prospects. If McPhee goes into fire sale mode over the next two weeks, these are the players I do not think can be moved without compromising the immediate and/or future success of the team. Everyone else is too expensive, too superfluous, too underused, or too ill-fitting to be considered essential in my book. Tell me what you think in the comments below!

Caps @ Pens Recap: 1/22/12

2012-01-22T21:41:00.000-05:00

At the end of the final game in the Capitals and Penguins season series, the Capitals were the OT losers, 4-3, rounding out a 2-1-1 record. Both teams were missing top players due to injury and/or illness, but it still managed to live up to a lot of the hype, with the remaining big stars chipping in to make NBC happy. Some thoughts:

For those that actually do follow me on Twitter, or that follow Michael Hoffman (@CapsExaminer) and/or Angie Lewis (@LadyHatTrick), or have even read previous posts, you may have picked up on the fact that I am a big fan of Mathieu Perreault, and that I think he is being under-utilized by the Capitals. Well tonight he got possibly the biggest shot of the season thanks to team misfortunes. Backstrom is still out with a head injury, and Marcus Johansson fell ill this weekend, forcing him to miss the game. First-line center duties surprisingly fell to MP85 on a line with Ovechkin and (*gasp*) Mike Knuble against a fierce rivalry on a nationally televised game. How did he do? Skated a season-high 16:22, posted two assists and a +2, and generally looked solid defensively and offensively. His first point came on a beautiful play with Ovechkin and Semin with the team rushing up the ice. A great pass from Ovi led to a quick, hard shot by Perreault, leading to a juicy rebound and a goal for Semin. Possibly just as important, if not noticeable, was a play in the Caps' end where Neuvirth gave up a juicy rebound, only to have Perreault poke it away from the corner of the net and lead a play out of the zone. Here's hoping for more of this kind of performance and ice time for the diminutive forward.
Much has been said about the Capitals' offensive issues this season. Not as much has been said about minor victories masking massive underlying issues. Tonight the team got goals from Laich, Ovechkin, and Semin, their three most expensive (healthy) players, and that was fantastic news. What is terrible news is that they only managed 20 shots on goal, their 7th lowest total of the season, and the fourth time this month they have only scraped together 20 or fewer shots on net. Meanwhile, the team has only allowed fewer than 20 shots against one time this month: Jan 3, when the Calgary Flames got 19 on net. While I am absolutely not ready to put much trust in Neuvirth, I am ready to trust Vokoun. I am also ready to trust the defense to limit quality shots on net, even if they are not limiting the quantity of shots. Hopefully a game like this, moreso than the two shutouts last week, will motivate the guys to shoot the puck more. It's one thing to be shut out, or to win a close game. But after an OT loss in a game where both goalies are playing sub-par, you hope the players are saying to themselves: "What if I had taken one more shot?"
One of the big differences between Boudreau and Hunter is line-matching. I think Hunter took it a step further today with the lineup today with team-matching. Putting Knuble back on the top line, even if it was only for a short time, and starting Neuvirth were likely both moves made because they have been thorns in the Penguins' sides. Hendricks, Laich, and Brouwer were put together to match Malkin's line with (theoretically) solid defensive play and physicality. It didn't quite work out, but I have some faith that there was a thought process behind the lineups that just about everyone was questioning this morning.
You have to give props where they are due, even if you hate to do it: Malkin and Neal were fantastic tonight. The game-tying goal was the work of a supremely gifted, powerful forward in Malkin. Geno pushed through, quite literally, all five Caps players on the ice, never lost the puck, out-powered Hamrlik up against the boards, and managed to pass it to James Neal for his 26th goal of the season. There's a reason that Malkin was taken one pick after Ovechkin, and he is reminding the league and hockey fans of that this season. Neal is reminding people why everyone in Pittsburgh thought Pens GM Ray Shero had incriminating photographs of Dallas' GM when he was brought to the Penguins. Why do I also find this hopeful? Malkin was plagued by injuries the past couple seasons, only to come back healthy and dominant. Neal was in a massive slump during his time in Pittsburgh last season, only to come back and remain tied with Malkin for 3rd in the league for goals. So, too, can our Young(ish) Guns come back from injuries and slumps to return to form. Here's hoping they do.
More on that game-tying goal, specifically Neal's shot placement. There was a lot of traffic in between Neal and Neuvirth, and a lot of action going on in that short distance. He placed it top-shelf, over Neuvirth's left shoulder. Here's the thing about that shot: most Penguins players are going to make that one go in. Bylsma is a great coach, and Neuvirth is not that great of a goalie. He is very predictable, and while I do not have the capabilities to bring up such statistics (@ngreenberg, anyone?), I would venture a guess that about half or more of the goals against Neuvy over his last 30 games have gone in over his glove-side shoulder, and with increasing frequency the later into his career you go. The reason is that, nearly without fail, Neuvirth will always crouch, sticking his right leg out to the middle of the net, whenever a play is coming out from behind the net on his left side. This leaves an opening above his left shoulder, as he positions his glove near his chest when in this position. I am not a coach, nor am I a scout, and I know this. It is not hard to imagine, especially after watching the 24/7 special from last year, that Bylsma is not only aware of this tendency, but specifically coaches his players to make plays and take shots from that area of the ice. This is also the reason why Neuvirth seems to have so many hard-angle and junk shots go in on him. They are not flukes, those are part of a strategy to defeat a young goaltender with mediocre puck tracking skills and bad habits. In fact, it appears that all four goals went in over his left shoulder, although from different spots on the ice and in different situations. Neal's game-tying goal, while a great shot, needs to be recognized more for the implications for Neuvirth's career, and a probable explanation for his horrendous stats this season: good coaches, and therefore good teams, know precisely how to beat him, and this makes him a liability going forward unless he makes immediate changes. The future of the team he is not.

The Capitals picked up a loser point tonight, leaving them one point behind Florida in the ~~Southleast~~ Southeast division, and two points ahead of Toronto to remain in the top eight teams in the conference. The next five games feature the Boston Bruins bookending two important matches against Tampa Bay and Florida, and a still-valuable two points against the Canadiens. Here's hoping for more of the team we saw in the second and third periods, and none of the team we saw in the first. Otherwise, it is going to be an ugly week for those who rock the red.

Caps Midseason Review

2012-01-13T02:33:00.002-05:00

As of the 1-0 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Capitals have played 41 out of their 82 regular season games. Halfway mark seems like a good place for a midseason review, eh? Get ready, it's a long one:

Yeah, it has a few smudges, but so does this season.

Let's jump into it: The Caps are precisely where I expected them to be, currently sitting at 8th place in the Eastern Conference, a record of 22-17-2, barely ahead of third in their division, a team with more talent than most but lacking an identity. The boys in red have been trying to find the identity they lost back in 2009 during the Montreal playoff series. Through strategy and coaching changes, we have seen the offensive juggernaut from Boudreau's early days all but disappear in an effort to "play the right way." In my opinion, which has not truthfully changed much in over a year, the ability and motivation is there, but the management is not. McPhee has not made the necessary adjustments in personnel, and neither Boudreau nor Hunter have utilized players in quite the right way. The team is almost there, playing more physical and being more defensively responsible, but it's almost to a fault now, as it appears to have come at the expense of the offense that this team was drafted and molded to produce during most of McPhee's tenure as GM. Over 41 games, we've seen a blurry picture become more clear: this is a team that will try to break the other team physically, but with the responsibility to do it cleanly and consistently. Whether this is a team that will also seek to break minds along with bodies by scoring more goals is to be seen, because the talent to do so is there and somehow needs to be unleashed.
Every guy on the team not named Jason Chimera needs to score more goals. The physicality and defense under Hunter have largely been acceptable, if not consistently superb. The goaltending from Vokoun has largely been admirable, if not consistently superb. The offense has largely been absent. Granted, this is a problem that is somehow plaguing other teams, too. Anaheim boasts the incredible trio of Getzlaf, Perry, and Ryan, not to mention Selanne, yet they are barely ahead of Columbus for the league's worst team. Columbus, too, sports a fairly impressive roster in terms of past offense, but they can't buy a win. In fact, only 11 out of 30 teams currently sport a positive goal differential. The Caps are tied with the Ottawa Senators (who have played a league-high 45 games along with four other teams) for 12th with a -1 differential. With guys like Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom, Laich, Knuble, and Johansson, they need to be on the positive side of things.
And then there are the injuries.
Look, nobody said this season would be easy.
Wait, they did? Oh. Well... now it isn't.
Really, the Caps haven't had to deal with too many injuries this season, aside from Mike Green. Backstrom likely has a concussion to deal with after taking a nasty elbow from the new-Canadien Rene Bourque, and Tom Poti may actually be in a cellar marked "LTIR," but that's pretty much it. Yes, Jay Beagle has missed almost the whole season to date with a concussion of his own, but he was hardly expected to make an impact on the team this year. When your projected injury fill-in gets injured, there simply is not a lot to be said other than well wishes and welcome-backs. Still, it is hard to blame a lot of the struggles simply on missing one player, even if it is someone with Green's talent. He missed a lot of last season, too, but the team managed to take first in the conference anyway.
Varlamov, on the other hand, has played in more games this season for the Colorado Avalanche than he did in either of his two full seasons with Washington. His numbers aren't as spectacular as they were in DC, but he has won 4 of his last 5 with a .933 SV%, 1.8 GAA, and a shutout. Of note in terms of the Caps is that he has not been injured for a significant period of time this season, if at all, despite his designation as chronically injured with a weak groin. Given Green and Poti's current statuses, Varly's problems here, and former Caps Captain Chris Clark (how's that for alliteration?) missing the majority of his final three seasons in DC, all due to groin injuries, maybe the problem lies not with the individual players, but rather with the ice, medical staff, or both. Either that or "groin injury" means in DC what "lower body injury" means for most other teams: absolutely nothing.
Empty net goals are not something a team should rely on, and only come when your team has a lead in a close game, but they are still nice to have. Through 41 games, the Caps have only two of the "cheap" goals, good for second worst in the league. Chicago (2nd in the West, 4th in the league) leads the league with eight empty netters. Where the Caps do lead during 4-on-4, with a league-high nine goals for in those situations, while allowing four. Maybe someone should just take a slashing minor if it looks like a powerplay isn't going to go well...
Colorado is the Western Conference team to watch for most fans interested in the Capitals' future, given that Washington holds their 2012 1st round pick and either the 2012 or 2013 2nd round pick. So where are they? Ninth in the West, with two more points and four more games played than the Caps. That lottery pick is looking a little unlikely now, eh? At least Troy Brouwer has quietly put together a solid season, leading the team in hits and chipping in 11 goals to date.
Orlov did not make the team out of camp, but looks to have earned a permanent spot on the roster. He has unbelievable puck-handling skills, hits much harder than one would expect from a rookie of his size, and has been nothing less than an excellent addition to the team's defensive corps this season. He still makes some rookie mistakes, but he continues to adapt to the NHL game beautifully, and I expect he will look like a true pro by the time I am writing a full season review.
Mathieu Perreault, on the other hand, did make the team out of camp because he played better than just about everyone, but nobody seems to have told the coaches. He has seen a team-low time-on-ice average (for players with 20+ games) of 9:03. Cody Eakin, who Perreault theoretically beat out for a spot on the roster, has played in 20 games with an average of 9:51. That is the kind of ice time one would expect a low-level grinder or fighter to get. Matt Hendricks, another of my favorite guys, is one of those fighters, leading the team in PIMs at 47. He gets an average of 35 seconds per game more than Perreault. MP85 has also vastly improved in faceoffs with a season average of 49%, which seems lightyears ahead of second line center Marcus Johansson's 43%. I'm not surprised to see him on a line with Mike Knuble. I am surprised that it is the fourth line, as both guys should be higher up in the depth chart. I think that Perreault deserves a promotion in the lineup, but it doesn't seem to be in the cards.
McPhee was considered a genius by most back in July. Now there is some wonder as to whether he is going to keep his job after this season. He decided to keep Boudreau after last season only to fire the guy a quarter of the way into the season, bringing in someone else with no NHL coaching experience. The team is lacking a solid second line center after years of needNearly all the team's money has been spent. If the season ended today, the Caps would be using their own pick ahead of Colorado's. The team has been inconsistent and floundering, and has completely abandoned the identity so carefully constructed through years of drafting and trading. Three first round picks were traded away in the offseason: the 2010 pick, Varlamov, and Eric Fehr. No significant moves have been made since July. GMGM has to pass two big tests this season if he wants to keep his job: the trade deadline in 45 days, and the playoffs. If he is not able to pull off some masterful work before March, and then at least see the Capitals make it to the conference finals, Leonsis may finally have to bring in someone else. Because as it stands, this is no longer McPhee's team. This is a team that McPhee has largely brought in from the outside to fix what he thought were problems. The problem is that those problems were mostly overreactions and falsehoods, and now there are real issues at hand.
Every game this season seems to have led the fans to question whether that particular game was representative of the team. Whether it was the 7th straight win, the 5th straight loss, or the first road win, we as fans have read a lot into each point that the team has earned or lost. Many Caps coaches, too, seem to do the same thing. Unfortunately, overanalyzing based on miniscule data sets is what bloggers and sports analysts are supposed to do, while the coaches are supposed to look at the big picture. Thankfully, whether or not you are a fan of his standard lineup (I am not, if you have any doubts by this point), Dale Hunter has been doing at least one thing right by letting the lines mesh for a few games before switching out one or two players. He seems to understand that this is a skilled roster that will not have the same sorts of lines that other teams, or even that he as a coach, typically have. Typically gone are the days of multiple line moves in a period, and that is one thing to look forward to for the second half: chemistry.

I think this is how lower body injuries happen...

Nobody saw any of this coming once the season began. I even wrote a post saying I was wrong, that Boudreau was doing well, and that a lot of the demons had been exorcised. Well, I was wrong about being wrong. I was right. Boudreau obviously was unable to coach the team anymore, and he is gone as a result. The Capitals, in retrospect, really were winning those seven straight games as much because of scheduling and facing backup goaltenders as because of skill. The playoffs are the current goal, not the Cup. Thankfully, Alex Ovechkin has started to shake off the rust and play like his old self again. He is hitting hard, he is shooting more, and he has been scoring. In fact, he has been playing better than his old self in a lot of ways. He has been less selfish with the puck. He has played with fire when the rest of the team wants to quit. He has even been blocking shots and backchecking. Let no one question Ovechkin this year. A lot may be wrong, but it's not on the captain. Backstrom, too, has continued to play to old form. Dennis Wideman is playing some of his best hockey, and Jason Chimera is having a career year. There's a lot of good going on with this team, and every night it feels like they're going to turn the corner. We're halfway through. There aren't a whole lot of corners left. It's time to see what they can do.
Trade talks are sure to be on fire right about now in McPhee's office. Jeff Schultz has a decent sized contract, is a very capable defenseman, and has barely played under Dale Hunter. Given Orlov's promotion ahead of him on the depth chart and the shocking callup of recently acquired prospect d-man Tomas Kundratek, Schultz appears to have lost his spot on the team. I don't think it's because Sarge lacks skill. I do think it is because he lacks physicality, and that is no longer an option on this team, even for guys who aren't listed as 6'6" and 230 lbs. As evidenced by the 19 teams with a negative goal differential, plenty of teams need a top-4 defenseman. It's only a matter of time folks. Expect a salary dump here. The Caps have less than a mil in cap space and are STILL lacking a legitimate second line center, and they cost money. I'm thinking Schultz moves for a pick or two to a bottom-15 team. He won't be the only guy gone by the trade deadline, he is just the most likely.
So I took a page from the book over at Japers Rink, and I encourage you to read the bullet points vertically, and then do what I tell you after that. Give me a reason to update this more often!

Avs-Caps Recap and Thoughts on Value

2011-12-18T00:54:00.000-05:00

As life becomes more hectic, posts become more sporadic. But after a (very) brief back and forth with Neil Greenberg (@ngreenberg, probably the best guy to follow for Caps stats) about Schultz's role on the team and trading, I felt compelled to say a bit more here.

For those of you who do not know, the Capitals lost to Colorado tonight 2-1. A couple quick thoughts on this before moving on to the rest:

McLeod, MacLeod, same dif. The point is, there can be only
one (goal like that ever again or else I will get a sword and...)
A lot of bloggers, fans, and game announcers called the first goal of the game, scored by the Avs' Cody McLeod from about five feet past the blue line, "fluky." I call it "Neuvirth needs to get his ass outta his head." (It's still ok to quote Boudreau and his staff, right?) That was pathetic, and if he had been paying any attention, maybe he would have put his glove up during the time it took that lob pass to make it him rather than waiting until it over his shoulder. A fluky goal banks off three players or a divot in the ice. That was a crap goal against a guy who has looked like little more than a crap goalie this season.
Glad to see Semin scored tonight, but it is unbelievable that it was only his sixth of the season. That puts him on a 16-17 goal pace. I cannot say enough times that I think Johansson is the wrong guy to center Sasha. Not a knock on MoJo, who I have generally been impressed with this season, but just looking at the reality that something is wrong here, and realizing that you can't force a pair or trio of players to be successful if their skillsets and styles simply do not mesh.
Knuble on the fourth line? Halpern playing wing on the second line? Halpern is a skilled guy. Knuble can grind it out with the best of them. But they don't belong where Hunter has put them recently. Neither has done poorly, mind you, but the team as a whole is not performing. The Avalanche and Jets are absolutely lesser teams that the Capitals should DOMINATE (yes, in capitals), not score a goal against in close, grinding games. Put the guys where they belong, where they have had success, and see that success return. Knuble belongs on the top line with Ovi and Backstrom. Halpern belongs on the fourth line centering Hendricks and another player. Play with the rest of the lineup as needed, but those five should be set in stone if you ask me, which I am assuming you did.

Ok, so what to do? The team, on paper, is a top-notch group of guys that should have no problem winning a cup. There are rookies and veterans, snipers and grinders, role players and elite talent. Our starting goalie is (was?) tied for the league lead in save percentage since the lockout. Leonsis has like ten dollars left to spend under the salary cap. Bruce Boudreau was fired when things took yet another turn. All the stops have supposedly been pulled out to win a Cup, and it has been the team's worst season in four years. A trade seems likely if nothing changes in the next week or two, but the way the team has performed, who would net anything of value?

The funny thing about value is that it's relative. There are a number of trades that appear to be "bad trades," but at the time they involved moving a player who simply did not work out with teammates, coaches, or both. I think that the Fleischmann trade was absolutely awful, for example, but Boudreau was clearly not going to give Flash the consistency and ice time that he needed to succeed. A point-per-game player for the Avs/Panthers and a useless bust of a defenseman for the Caps later, and it looks even worse. When a coach handicaps a player, or the talent on a team is such that a guy cannot be unleashed or properly utilized, it is probably best to move him sooner rather than later.

As bad as the team's record is, the fact remains that there is a lot of talent and a lot of money at all positions. I say move Jeff Schultz is the guy to move. I actually kind of like Schultz, and I think he can be a good d-man when he is paired with the right guy and the right system. But he has probably had one of the worst times adjusting to style changes since the Montreal series and last season's losing streak. Coach Hunter has benched him the past couple games in favor of (inferior player) John Erskine and (budding stud) rookie Dmitri Orlov. Mike Green isn't even in the lineup, and when he returns, someone else will have to be scratched or sent down to Hershey. Schultz also carries a not-insignificant cap hit of $2.75 million. Trading him for a draft pick simplifies a crowded blueline, frees up cap space, and hopefully gets Schultz some more NHL ice time. He has spent a lot of time on the top line with Mike Green during his stay in Washington, and he could fit in that role on a lot of other NHL teams. If he is not going to be used here, or if the style of play has changed so much that he is no longer a comfortable fit, I think it is best to move him now to help the team and help his career. Schultz's value in DC may have dropped as a result of the changes made over the last year, but he is still a valuable player in the league and should be able to net some decent value in terms of a second round draft pick and maybe a late round pick or prospect in a year that is supposed to have a strong draft.

Semin has been the name floated around in most rumors, and a year ago it made sense. When McPhee made the bone-headed move of giving him $6.7 million for this season, he skyrocketed Semin's face value. Any team looking to sign him has to determine if he is worth that much money while giving up something of value to the Capitals. At his current pace and level of play, he is not worth the money. That means that the Caps would not get $6.7 of value back in a trade, and would essentially be sending away a guy that has all the skill in the world, if not the desire, for someone that very likely does not have either. Not worth it for the team.

Then you have one of my favorite players: Mathieu Perreault. Perreault is a guy who is probably undervalued by the Capitals, and apparently especially by Hunter. His ice time has been absolutely pathetic, especially since Boudreau left. On a night when Cody Eakin was benched and Matt Hendricks had to sit five minutes for a fight, Perreault saw his lowest total ice time of the season, playing a measly 3:14, last on the team behind Hendy's 3:49. You better believe that there is a team out there aching for a young, hardworking forward that is in the top three for goals- and points-per-sixty minutes on his team. You also better believe that the Capitals would only get back in return what they value him at, and not what the other team would. However, much like Fleischmann, he would benefit greatly in his personal life if he was to be traded because he would surely see more ice time and greater development. But because he has the second-lowest cap hit of any forward on the team, and only if you include Jay Beagle, and because he would net very little in return, trading MP85 would be a pretty stupid move.

All of the players have fans, and all of them have value. They will not all be here when the trade deadline rolls around. Hopefully McPhee bucks his past trends of lousy trades and figures out how to properly judge value on the team under Hunter, and is able to extract the same or greater value from another GM. My vote is for Schultz, and to a lesser extent Erskine, who is a guy I think fits in between Sarge and Perreault on my makeshift value scale. Who is yours?

Caps @ Cats Recap, 12/5/11

2011-12-05T23:46:00.000-05:00

Two-post night for me, so pardon the brevity of each. Not a whole lot of leadup necessary for my thoughts, so here they are:

Michal Neuvirth is looking more like the goalie I thought he was. Five goals against tonight, a couple of which he definitely should have had and three in the first period, continue a pretty terrible season for him so far. Not to say he didn't make some nice saves, but every goalie does every night, that's why they are in the NHL. He continues to bite way too hard when shooters skate wide, leaving waaayy too much of the net open behind him (See Goal #5 for reference), and falls into his butterfly position too early. The other teams are on to him, shoot for the top-right, and you'll probably score (See goals 1, 2, 3, and 5 for reference). Dave Prior is not working out as a good replacement for Arturs Irbe, who actually replaced Prior in the first place...
Jason Chimera continues his best-ever season, and putting him with Brooks Laich and Joel Ward looks like a genius move more and more as the season goes on. The offense is still there on the team, it just isn't where we thought it was. Then again, we knew Laich could score, that Chimera could skate, and that Ward had it in him (at least in one playoff series), so maybe this all should not be as surprising as it has been. So at least there is one bright spot on the team.
John Carlson had a helluva night, himself. Eight shots on net, three assists, a +3, and 26:04 of ice time. Wideman, too, had a helluva night, just not in quite the same way. Team-leading 29:00 of ice time, including 5:29 of shorthanded time on a night that saw three PPG against, two shots on net, no points, and a -1. Wideman, at times, has looked like a valuable addition to the team, and I honestly think he is, but a healthy Mike Green will lessen the burden on Wideman and allow him to be put back in his comfort zone.
Speaking of what'll happen when Mike Green comes back, count me among those that hope it does not involve sending Dmitri Orlov back down to Hershey. His puck-handling skills are absolutely incredible, as is his willingness to lay into the other team and contribute to the offense, adding his third assist in eight game tonight. Carlson, Alzner, Green, and Wideman are likely all guaranteed spots when #52 returns, and Hamrlik will likely keep his sweater, too. It might be time to move Schultz or Erskine to make room for #81. Definitely a situation to watch in the coming weeks.
Have to give credit where it is due: the Weiss-Fleischmann-Versteeg line continued to show just how dominant they are, with each player finishing a plus-one on the night. Weiss had three points with two on the PP, and Fleischmann assisted on Weiss' second goal of the night, which ended up as the game winner. Fleischmann, a former capital and "failed" 2C experiment, has been a point-per-game player since being traded out of Washington last season, earning 49 points in 49 games as of tonight. I, for one, always thought that if he played some solid minutes that he would perform, and I am happy to see that he is doing both these days. I would still rather the Caps won, but part of that is proper player management. I don't care what some of the more popular Washington bloggers say, moving Flash was a mistake, and I think the continued problems on the second line are evidence that the team is still paying for it. Here's hoping those issues are resolved sooner rather than later.

So the Capitals are now 1-3 under new coach Dale Hunter, allowing more than two goals for the first time, and against the team currently leading their division. Hunter was brought in, presumably, to make some changes. So far, I'm not sure that many have been made. I hope tonight was more of a fluke in a new system than more of the same from the old one, but the Caps should be a lot better than this. There is still time to right the ship, but losing division games is not a good way to start the healing. Next up, another game against Ottawa on Wednesday. Hopefully the boys can get Hunter his first regulation win and his first road win in the same game.

Early Thoughts on Realignment

2011-12-05T22:59:00.001-05:00

It has been reported on Twitter tonight that the NHL Board of Governors has agreed on a four-conference realignment to being next season. Here are your new conferences:

Conference 1: Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Los Angeles, San Jose, Anaheim, Colorado, Phoenix
Conference 2: Winnipeg, Detroit, Chicago, St. Louis, Nashville, Columbus, Dallas, Minnestoa
Conference 3: Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, Boston, Buffalo, Florida, Tampa Bay
Conference 4: Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, NY Rangers, NY Islanders, New Jersey, Carolina, Washington

Let me start off by saying that I am not a fan of the four conference/division split solely because it will require an overhaul of the current NHL playoff format, and the Stanley Cup Playoffs is probably the best playoff series in sports today. That being said, a lot of this makes sense. A lot does not. Conference 1 makes the most sense, keeps the west coast teams together, and really spreads out the travel requirements pretty evenly. I have issues with the rest. I would like to say that just swapping Columbus and Carolina would make a lot of sense, but that ignores Conference 3. I don't know what map they were looking at during the meetings, but having both Florida teams in a conference with three Canadian teams and two New England teams seems off. Here is how I would attempt to create a bit more common sense:

Conference 1: As is
Conference 2: Winnipeg, Detroit, Chicago, St. Louis, Dallas, Minnesota, Dallas
Conference 3: Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, Boston, Buffalo, Columbus, NY Rangers
Conference 4: Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, NY Islanders, New Jersey, Carolina, Washington, Tampa Bay, Florida

You still end up with two 8-team and two 7-team conferences, but the travel schedules make a little bit more sense. Dallas will have one less northern city to travel to by removing Columbus. The Rangers are reunited with three of the other Original Six teams, and Columbus is in a conference that makes a lot more geographic sense. Conference 4 essentially becomes a mash-up of the Atlantic and Southeast conferences, building on some already fairly strong rivalries and requiring a good bit less travel for the Florida teams. If the NHL is going to embrace some radical changes, let's try to make those changes work for everyone.

Old is new all over again.

Either way, in terms of the Caps, more games against the Penguins and Flyers means more fire for the rekindling of old Patrick Division rivalries. Really, I think Capitals fans might get the best end of the stick out of anyone in this realignment, as the Conference 4 teams feature a lot of rivalries, top-notch teams, and budding young talent. It will certainly be an exciting year for mid-Atlantic puckheads, that's for sure.

A lot of teams will be helped by the ratings, especially the southern teams and Columbus. Dallas, too, gets a bit of a break by being away from the Pacific Division teams. I would love to hear people's thoughts on this. To date, I have not had a single comment on any of my posts, and I think this one is prime fodder for a little debate amongst my few readers. So, comment away!

Cap - Pens Recap, 12/1/11

2011-12-02T00:18:00.001-05:00

Been a minute since I wrote a recap, but I had to make sure to write one for this game. First time Crosby has led the Penguins against the Capitals in 11 months, and new head coach Dale Hunter has had a few days with the team to try and prepare them. Before I dive into my thoughts on the game, though, I just want to say congratulations to Bruce Boudreau on landing that coaching gig in Anaheim already. I was admittedly surprised he got the call so soon, and that he got the job the same night that the Ducks won a game, but I fully expected Anaheim to be his new home by the end of this year. As much as I ragged on him and called for him to be fired, I was still a little sad to see him go. After all, the team was its most successful in its history, let alone since my childhood, under his watch. Caps-Ducks games were my favorite ones to watch these past couple seasons, and I can only hope for a Stanley Cup matchup this year. I expect Gabby to be a great fit with the team and that they will have a lot of success together. Kudos to Bruce, good luck to him and his family as they adjust to a whole new part of the country, and hopefully we'll see him at Verizon Center before the start of the next season. Now, here are my five thoughts on tonight's game:

Soooo I go over there, skate left, then to the middle, and shoot?

As a certain Great One said: "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take." That was the story of the night for our boys in red, being held to a season-low 17 shots on goal, with only two of them in the third period. Hunter has his work cut out for him, because this kind of crap has been going on for far too long now with a team that features Alexes Ovechkin and Semin, Nick Backstrom, John Carlson, Mike Knuble, Brooks Laich, and Marcus Johansson. We get it, you all miss Mike Green and he is a big part of getting the offense going. But he is not that big a part of the team that these guys can't even get shots on the net. Completely unacceptable, and I am sure that our new blue-suited coach will address it quite loudly in practice.
On the
I know this photo is overused, but it is just so good...
flip side of things, the Penguins were credited with 35 shots on goal, scoring on only two of them. Tonight, Vokoun looked like the goalie we all know him to be. Part of that was the all-around defensive play of the team, as the majority of those shots were low percentage chances from the outside. Crosby had 3 shots, Malkin had 7, neither had any points and Crosby even finished a -1. For about 90% of the night, I'd say stellar job limiting Pittsburgh's chances.
As has been the case with many a Washington team, the Capitals seem unable to catch a break, and seemingly must pay for every mistake made. Other teams have the occasional defensive breakdown or imperfect play and don't get scored on, but not our Caps. Both goals against came as a result of poor play by the guys in front of Vokoun. On goal #1, Vokes had no chance of making the save, because he played the puck and players perfectly. Schultz, on the other hand, has to stop that puck from getting across the crease, and Orlov has to be in tighter on his man under Dale Hunter's system. Schultz is cementing the idea that his +50 season was one of the all-time flukes in recent NHL memory, and is a prime candidate to ride the pine pony when Green returns. On the second goal, Eakin has to keep from turning over the puck, Johansson has to prevent Kennedy from keeping the puck and getting around him, and Erskine has to do better at being the last line of defense on what was essentially a 1-on-3. Carlson was not totally without blame, as he could have come in more, and Vokoun proooobably should have stopped that one, but it never should have progressed as far as it did in the first place.
Hits, hits, hits. Holy crap were there some hits. Hunter is making his influence known, as the Caps threw around their big bodies to the tune of 43 hits tonight. Ovechkin in particular was laying people out, looking a bit more like his old self in terms of physicality and speed. Washington has a lot of big players, and may be one of the biggest teams in the league. If they can keep this intimidating style of play up and rekindle their scoring touch, I will feel a lot better about this team.
I love
Woooo! Who would have thought I'd be the go-to guy for goals?!

being proven wrong about this team, mostly because I am such a pessimist when it comes to the Caps. Chimera, along with his linemates, has been an absolute joy to watch this season. A team-leading (!!??!?) 10 goals after tonight, the work of blazing speed and hard workalong the boards. This is the guy McPhee thought he was signing two years ago, and the work that Laich and Ward have done on what has to be the most expensive third line in the NHL is just great. All three are shutting down the opposition and adding crucial offense. This was the best thing that Boudreau left behind, and may be the only part of the forward lines that does not need to be touched. Congrats on reaching last year's goal total in just over 1/4 the time, Chimmer, and keep up the good work, Meat-n-Potatoes line.
BONUS THOUGHT! I love the youth and depth that Washington has, and the three guys I am keeping an eye on are Cody Eakin, Mathieu Perreault, and Dimitri Orlov. Orlov has looked incredible for a kid playing in his first handful of NHL games, absolutely embarrassing a few guys with his stick handling and hits. He has made some rookie mistakes, but overall I like his play a lot more than I like Schultz or Erskine's, or even Hamrlik's right now. I hope to see a few more games with him in the lineup, but as of right now I kind of hope he is here for good. Eakin, on the other hand, impressed early but has faltered as of late. He has gotten a much better shot at this lineup than Perreault has, despite starting the year off in Hershey. His ice time has gone up and he has played on the second line more often than not, but he looks as though he may just not be ready for the big time, even if he is on the cusp. A year with the Bears would do him a lot of good, and I think the organization would be better served by making that move sooner rather than later. Perreault has always been one of my favorite guys to watch, as he can be very speedy and tricky as the team's smallest player. Unfortunately, he just has not been given a consistent shot at staying in DC, all the while being attacked for his perceived "inconsistency." I have been saying this since he first got back-to-back healthy scratches, but how many other fourth liners set a 40-point pace? Halpern and Hendricks have suffered without him on their line, and the team as a whole has done a lot worse without him than with. If I am not mistaken (and correct me if I am), but he was the last player to be on ice for a goal against on the team. I hope he gets ice time and has the opportunity to show Hunter what he can do, but if not I hope he demands a trade as he absolutely should be playing in the NHL right now.

Tonight marked the first time since before Dan Bylsma started coaching the Pens that Washington lost to Pittsburgh in regulation, but it had to come sometime. Two-thirds of the team's game seemed to be there, with very solid goaltending and a consistent and physical defensive effort. Nobody expected Hunter to turn this team around immediately, but back-to-back 2-1 losses show some early returns. Add in some offense, and the fans can breathe a little easier, not to mention McPhee. Looking forward to what you can do, Dale.

This Is Only A Tribute

2011-11-28T14:31:00.000-05:00

Assuming you have your ass outta your head, you have heard by now that Bruce Boudreau is out as the guy behind the bench in Washington, and former player Dale Hunter is in as coach. Hunter has been coaching the OHL's London Knights for the past 11 years, a team that he and his brother bought shortly before he took over those duties. In that time, he reached 300 wins faster than any other OHL coach, and is the winningest coach in the league's history. This is in addition to the fact that he is one of only four Caps players to ever have their numbers retired, had a 19-year career in the NHL, and that he desperately wants a Stanley Cup. As McPhee has said in his presser, "this is the only team he has ever wanted to coach, he has had other opportunities." I would say that I was not one to say "I told you so" if that was true... so let me just remind you that I told you so (albeit in a half-joking way). But there will be more time for Hunter talk later, especially after a tough first week against a hot St. Louis Blues (who also made a coaching change), the Penguins (now with rejuvenated superstar Sidney Crosby), and a game against the Southeast Division leading Florida Panthers on Monday following the "easy game" against the Ottawa Senators. For now, Boudreau is the man of the day, and here are my thoughts and memories of the man, the coach, the foul-mouthed legend.

When Glen Hanlon was let go four years ago, it was an AHL coach with some recent success that took his spot. "Gabby," as they called him, went on to take the team from last place to first in the division, bowing out in the first round of the playoffs in a year when most thought even making it would be impossible, and winning the Jack Adams award for best coach of the year. Budding superstar Alex Ovechkin went on to score 65 goals that season. The lineup was far from perfect, but it looked like better days were to come.

The following season played out like one would expect. Another division title, this one a little less hard fought as the Caps. They finished second in the conference, won the first round of the playoffs, and lost to the eventual Cup-winning Penguins in a 7-game series widely considered to be one of the best in league history. Things were only looking better after that, when Boudreau led the team to their first ever President's Trophy for having the best record in the league. Unfortunately, it only took a couple weeks for the first signs that something was wrong to show up, when the team lost in the first round to eighth-seeded Montreal. Questions persisted and dogged Boudreau from that point forward, as it seemed that series defined his career and coaching style for the remainder of his tenure in Washington. Lineup changes were made repeatedly in game, goalies were rotated constantly, and playing styles were tweaked and overhauled on more than one occasion. Last season Boudreau likely came to the brink during an eight game losing streak, and may have actually been saved by the HBO cameras watching every move, including the end of that streak. After being swept in the second round by the Lightning, it appeared that Bruce's time might be up, but McPhee gave him the vote of confidence before making several roster changes. However, after going 7-0-0 to start the 2011-2012 season, all the wheels seemed to fall off, capped by a horrible 5-1 loss to a Buffalo Sabres team half-comprised of minor leaguers. The time for a change was upon McPhee, and he made the right call. Boudreau out, Hunter in.

Boudreau, mind you, experienced success that few, if any, coaches ever have, so long as you include the qualifier that all that success was in the regular season. He was the fastest coach to reach 200 wins, although that included 50 OT and SO wins, and he has the best winning percentage of any coach since his first day on the job. Boudreau is, or at least can be, an excellent coach with the right players. That much was evident in his first two or three seasons in the NHL, not to mention his regular season record. Unfortunately for Bruce, the moves that McPhee made in the off-season likely doomed his DC coaching gig. Players like Ovechkin, Backstrom, Carlson, Green... those are Boudreau's kind of players. Brouwer, Ward, Hamrlik, Vokoun... not as much. Boudreau will find success with another team, and I do expect it to be soon. Teams like Anaheim and Columbus are underperforming right now despite a lot of offensive talent, and BB could easily find a home with either, or another team that isn't even on the radar right now. There are always teams with untapped talent that just need a new voice, the right voice, and guys like Boudreau will always be in demand for just that reason.

We have to thank Bruce Boudreau for the good times, the records, the wins, the four years of excitement and getting the team to a place where anything less than ultimate success is considered a failure. When a team is at a spot where a coach with Bruce's win-loss record gets fired, they are in a good place. At the same time, we have to thank McPhee for letting him go in the hopes that things will advance. This is a business, and coaches in this league are not expected to last forever. The good ones find work again, and soon. Don't feel too bad for Boudreau yet, he will be fine. I, and I am sure all the fans, wish him the best of luck moving forward. Haagen-Dazs is headquartered in Oakland, CA, so Anaheim would work out beautifully.

Where Do We Go From Here?

2011-11-20T12:57:00.002-05:00

Well I had planned to make my return with a recap of last night's game. Finally switched TV carriers so now I can actually watch all the games, and DVR them in situations where I am not able to be home, like last night. I made it through the first two periods of my own personal re-broadcast, and just couldn't bear to finish. While I honestly do not think the team as a whole played as bad as everyone says they did through those first two, it certainly was not what you want to see. Gustavsson made some huge saves with the Caps on the PP, and a lot of the goals came down to all-around awful play by Schultz, Erskine looking totally lost/being slow/screening the goalie, and a rare piss-poor performance from Backstrom in his own end. The rest of the team has had better games and worse games, but I think the loss can pretty much be pinned on those three. Big picture, though, this is the seventh regulation loss in 11 games since going 7-0-0, and fourth straight loss for the team. Washington currently sits at 8th in the Eastern Conference, thanks to holding a couple tiebreakers with the New Jersey Devils, who are in ninth with the same 10-7-1 record. Something needs to change, but what?

As I, Steven Hindle, and others pointed out early on, that winning streak was really masking a plethora of issues facing the team. Some fans may still be deluding themselves into believing that the past 11 games are the anomalous ones of the season and that it is all still just some bad luck and injuries, but the real truth of it is more likely that the first seven games were the anomaly and a factor of good luck and other teams' injuries. Some people may recognize my twitter handle as the one claiming on July 1 that he would take $20 dollar bets that the Caps wouldn't finish above 7th in the Conference so long as Boudreau was coaching and no other big changes were made. That was before the Vokoun signing, granted, and that certainly was a big move that changed things in my eyes. But apparently not enough. So what are the big issues the team is facing, and what errors have Boudreau and McPhee made? Well since you're here, I'm assuming you care what my thoughts are on those matters, so here they are:

Much better by the Comcast sign than by the faceoff dot.
First things first, let me say that I was at least half-wrong about Johansson coming into this season. I am very impressed with his overall play, and I think he may become a legitimately consistent scoring threat over the course of the season. I was practically screaming on Twitter and Facebook, and literally in my apartment, for him to be sent down to Hershey last year just so he could develop and prepare for this season without being a liability. I refuse to join the cavalcade of the deluded who think that he had anything better than a mediocre rookie outing, but consider me a converted fan of his this year. All that being said, Boudreau is still using him absolutely wrong. I really don't care what his scouting report said, he is not defensively-minded or skilled enough to play on the PK, or to center one of the top two lines. Aside from the much-talked about beauty of a pass to Brouwer in one game, he has proved a relatively ineffective setup man, and I think that is the real reason that Semin has struggled so mightily to score this year. In no rational human being's mind is he anywhere approaching the talent of his countryman Backstrom, and as such MoJo should never even sniff the first line. He's good, but not that good. He is also a lousy center. His faceoff wins have been a little better as of late, but he is still worst on the team. He plays and skates like a winger, just put him there. The real success for him will come when Boudreau stops trying to play him as a top-two center and he is allowed to focus more on using his breakout speed down the boards.
Cody Eakin is obviously a skilled player, and I am overjoyed to have him in the Capitals organization, and I want him on the team... in 2012-2013. He has played well enough in his few games, and I will not bash him as a player, but his presence on the team is a symptom of greater issues. Boudreau and McPhee both seem to have their favorite players, and their players who will always be in the doghouse. One of the most polarizing players in years past was Tomas Fleischmann, and he has been nearly a point-per-game player since being traded after being shuffled around the lineup and benched repeatedly by Boudreau. I expect a healthy Eric Fehr to be a similar player later on this season. I point them out because they are highly skilled players that saw moderate success in Washington, but still got shuffled around and bad ice time. The Caps seem insistent on solving problems that don't exist while ignoring the most glaring issues. Mathieu Perreault has done all that has been asked of him this season. He is scoring .5 points per game while averaging only 10 minutes of ice time on the fourth line. Put that in perspective: when was the last time the Capitals had a 40+ point scorer on the fourth line? Cody Eakin has taken Perreault's spot on the roster in that Perreault is benched, but the real demotion went to Mike Knuble,a perennial 20-goal scorer. Eakin has primarily played on the second line alongside Johansson and Semin,getting roughly the same number of minutes that Perreault got.
Cody Eakin takes "Rock the Red" waaaaay too seriously.

His PPG is also clocking in at one every other game, but with more assists and with a better spot on the roster. There is absolutely no reason for Perreault to be sitting on the bench, and there is even less reason for the Capitals to start any rookies this year. It's time to win, not time to train new guys for NHL play. Do it next year when you have to clear up cap space. Eakin, Galiev, Kuznetsov, and Orlov are shining stars for the future, but let's keep the focus for the team on the present. McPhee and Boudreau need to grasp that lesson before the team can progress further. They've done a good job of laying the groundwork for future success, but now is the time to focus on this season.
The line-shuffling has to stop. If Boudreau wants to keep his job, he needs to do less, not more. I have been saying this for over a year, and the call from other fans is growing louder, too. Look around the league, what other championship caliber teams are throwing out 20 different line combinations a night? Just because the team is losing, or because a line has a bad shift or even a bad couple of games, does not mean that things are not working. It is still mind-boggling that Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Knuble were broken up this year. If Boudreau did not have faith that Knuble could carry his own in a contract year, then he should have gone to McPhee and told him to shop the big guy around. Brouwer and Ward are not replacements for Knuble on the top line. Brouwer just is not the crease presence that Knuble is, and it is a shame that Ovechkin has had to try and take that job on for himself. Stick to what works more often than not, Bruce. 8-19-22 has been one of the league's best lines for a couple seasons, don't fix what ain't broke. Some say that Boudreau is being a hard-liner and a tactician with his lineups, I say he is panicking. He does not seem to know how to handle loss. I've read a lot that the players do not know how to handle adversity - I think it's the coach that can't deal. This lineup, on paper, is filled with some of the best talent the league has to offer, some of the fastest skaters, hardest grinders, best scorers, solid defensemen, and quality goaltending. But when a player doesn't know who is going to be on his left side next game or next period, or even that he will still be playing on the right side, it will cause issues. Carlson and Alzner embody this more than most, and especially Carlson. Alzner pretty much always knows what his job is and where to be as a shutdown guy, but the big reason these two are so successful together is that they have almost always played alongside each other. They know where the other guy will be without asking, without looking, and they feel confident. The big word this season has been accountability, and it needs to be dropped. Forget accountability, this team needs consistency. A consistent coaching style, a consistent lineup. Changes can/will/should be made from time to time, but with a team this good, only after several games of ineptitude, not a shift where they allow a goal because of one mistake. McPhee added a lot of new pieces this year, and shipped out familiar ones, give the guys time to adjust, and success will come.
Let Ovi be Ovi, but help him grow, too. Ovechkin is not a 19-minutes-or-less talent. Players don't get better by playing less. As Ovi would say: "Nobody ever got better at hockey by bowling. More practice for you." I am not saying he should be playing 26 minutes a game, but 22 sure sounds about right. When you want to win, you want your best guys playing and working the other team. Ovechkin is not going to score more, or be more defensive, or any of that other stuff by getting five or more fewer shifts a game. Make him work for it, though. I'm a big fan of putting him on the penalty kill. Want his defensive and two-way game to get better? Put him in the situations where it matters most. There are no questions about whether this
Sasha Smiles all around! Let's see some more moments like this.

Russian Alex cares, we all know he does. Give him more five-on-five time, and throw him in for a few PK shifts a game. Playing a guy like him less just makes him more anxious, gives him more time to get into his own head about scoring, and pushes his focus into one area of hisgame. I guarantee you he does not get benched and think to himself "Ok, next shift I won't try to score and instead I'll create an open lane for Jason Chimera to skate through." If Ovechkin is not put into situations where he has to be defensive minded, he will not have to grow in that area of his game. Boudreau, more than Ovi himself, is pigeon-holing the captain into one role. Get and keep him off the point on the PP, give him some PK time, and never ever split him and Backstrom up at 5-on-5 play. Give the guy some room to breathe and he will bounce back and mature.
As for McPhee: make a trade or two when you can. Right now, McPhee has absolutely screwed himself and the team. Semin never should have gotten $6.7 million for this season, Erskine should never have gotten an extension, and Schultz should never have gotten as much money as he did. Now, when the team may need to make an early trade most, they are unable to do so. No team is going to want to give up a top defenseman (which I honestly do not think the team needs right now) or a top-two center (which I think the team desperately requires) for an underperforming penalty-taking machine with character issues like Semin, especially at that price. Erskine is at best a number six defenseman on a good team, and still can't crack the top four on a basement-level squad. Right now, he is still the team's best shot at a trade because he has not gotten much better or worse in the past year, and because the team has other players to fill his spot. Problem is that he will not yield much in return. But if McPhee can trade him away sooner rather than later for a 4th or 5th round pick, that'll free up some cap space, and maybe Schultz can be moved with a pick for an upgrade at the blue line, assuming Sarge ever picks up his game a bit. Then again, if Sarge picks up his game, the team should not need to move him or add another d-man. Carlson, Alzner, Green, Wideman, Hamrlik, and Schultz should be more than enough talent to put together a responsible defensive corps, but moving Erskine should still be a top priority if only to free up another $1.5 mil in cap space. Down the line, if Semin picks up his game, trade him away for a top centerman. Ideally, I'd say look to Columbus and Jeff Carter. He cannot be happy there and would surely be happy to waive his no-trade clause, they need a scorer, and his style of play would fit in perfectly on the Capitals second line. In a fantasy world, this trade is great on paper, but I know it will never happen.

What does this all mean, then? In my humble (Not-so-humble? Arrogant, even? You decide.) opinion, give Boudreau one more month. If he can turn back the clock, get his team playing consistently by being consistent himself, if the team can get back to winning and the Alexes start scoring again, if Perreault sees more ice time and Eakin gets a chance to grow in Hershey, then keep him. If not, time to boot the guy. I do not know who could replace him, but I hear that Dale Hunter has taken to a little minor-league coaching recently, and I'm sure he knows a thing or two about playing good hockey. McPhee needs to make a move within the next month, though, and I'm not talking about call-ups. If a day goes by where GMGM is not on the phone with another GM in the next month, Leonsis needs to start asking some questions himself. I really do think this team can win, and my bleak July predictions were only because I do not have the faith in Boudreau and McPhee to show me that they know how to properly manage this incredible roster. So far, they have done nothing to prove me wrong. I want them to, just like Johansson has. But if they can't, hockey is as much a business as everything else and the dead weight needs to be cut off before it drags the whole club down to the depths. Can't worry about making it out of the second round if you can't make it to the first, fellas. So Rock the Red and get back to scoring four goals a game like two years ago while allowing two like you did last year. The talent is there, the players are there, and 90% of them are doing their jobs. Time for Boudreau to earn his keep.

Lessons from the Western Conference

2011-11-03T00:07:00.000-04:00

The Capitals just finished playing four Western Conference opponents in a row. Two home games against Detroit and Anaheim sandwiched a Canadian road trip to Edmonton and Vancouver. These four games revealed a lot about our boys in red, likely because these teams weren't exactly low-class organizations. Detroit has been one of, if not the most successful franchises over the past 15 years. Vancouver has been to the Western Conference what the Caps have been to the Eastern, only with a seven game Cup Finals appearance last season. Anaheim boasts what might be the best top line in hockey, including current MVP and Richard Trophy winner Corey Perry, as well as a top-notch goaltender in Jonas Hiller. Edmonton was probably viewed as the weakest opponent, but they have a budding group of talented young players including Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and are currently allowing the fewest goals against per game. In short, these were games to watch. Here are some takeaways:

The offense is there. The Caps scored seven, one, four, and five goals, respectively. That's 4.25 goals per game, helping them lead the league in that particular category. After last year, it is nice to be reminded that the team is still capable of putting them in the back of the net. Backstrom in particular is at the top of his offensive game, posting his best numbers after 10 games.The offense is definitely boosted by the league's third-best power play, which is clicking at a 23.7% success rate.
When it comes to the PK, we suck again. In my opinion, the most impressive thing about last season wasn't dropping the average shots against per game by 1.9 shots, it was the consistently awesome penalty kill. Well, something happened and now it is back to pedestrian-at-best. Through ten games, the Caps rank 25th, posting only a 75% penalty kill percentage. Given how much of the team's penalty killer carried over from last year, this is unacceptable. Losing Gordon, Bradley, and Hannan to gain Halpern, Ward, and Hamrlik should be an upgrade, or at least a wash. Hopefully this is just a symptom early season adjustments and things turn around soon, but there is definitely cause for concern.
Look we all know they can do eet,
so let's see those penalties killed.
They are capable of solid defense. Anaheim is a very solid team, with some great offensive players. Holding them to only 15 shots through 63 minutes is impressive, even if four goals were allowed. "Capable of" just needs to translate into "always playing." The team is allowing far too many shots against, and Vokoun has bailed out the team more often than the other way around. The talent and ability is there, it just needs to be there consistently.

Ride that Vespa all you want, just stay
healthy and we will pretend you don't.

Mike Green is even more important than we thought. And a lot of people thought he was pretty important. Green has really shaped up his defensive game over the past two years, and his upper body at least has been healthy, and his offensive touch has returned this year. Losing him to a twisted ankle for the past couple showed how important he is on the power play, and how effective he has become at the defensive part of his game. He's definitely playing like it's a contract year. Because, and don't forget it, it is.
Faceoffs are an issue. Backstrom and Laich have been struggling lately on the dot, and Johansson, frankly, just sucks at faceoffs. Halpern has been great, as expected, and Perreault has performed admirably, perhaps more unexpectedly. One center being poor is fine, as is the occasional game where everybody blows, but a pattern of weakness down the middle can lead to problems for everyone. I think the first step is to move MoJo to wing and continue to 2C search. I know I sound like a broken record, but if anything his performance in Vancouver sealed it for me: the guy looks and plays like a winger, and a fairly good one at that. Get him off the dot and everyone wins.
Sasha really may not care. Alexander Semin has two goals and four assists through 10 games, is tied with Hamrlik for a team-worst -2, and leads the team with 12 PIMs. Only one of those points, an assist, came in the last five games. Personally, I think that Johansson and Knuble
His attempt at showing how much he cares.

are not appropriate linemates for him, which hurts his point total. In fact, all three of them have six points right now. Johansson has five goals and an assist, while Knuble has the same 2-4-6 line as Semin. The difference is, they are bout +1. The penalties and plus/minus are on Semin,as the blame really can't be placed elsewhere. He is too talented to be playing the way he is, which is to say uninspired. He had a strong start to the season, and has done little to challenge the prevailing wisdom that was so "controversially" said aloud by ex-teammate Matt Bradley and seconded by Dave Steckel this summer. Hard to say he is trade bait with his recent performance and contract, but he sure isn't looking like the guy to re-sign. Dude needs to step it up unless he wants to feel Boudreau's wrath. Or not. Who cares?

Caps-Ducks Recap

2011-11-01T23:05:00.001-04:00

Power outages and FCC blackout regs have left me with a broken ability to watch all of the past three games, which is why I haven't done a recap lately. But I was able to see all but ten minutes of the second period tonight, so here ya go. My five thoughts on tonight's game:

I don't know who was
Personally, I think he is a Highlander. Ageless Scandinavian
guy in peak physical condition? Just saying, don't be
surprised when they find him headless in an alley or mountaintop.

better tonight, the Caps' third line or Teemu Selanne. That's a lie, the ageless wonder was of course better (two goals and an assist, just an incredible player), but the meat-and-potatoes line looked damn good after a couple games of looking not-so-much. Combining for one goal and seven points overall, Laich, Ward, and Chimera all finished +3 to boot. If I had to pick my three stars, it'd be Selanne, M-n-P Line, and Backstrom. Backstrom, of course, got the 6-on-5 game-tying goal at the end of regulation, and then potted the winner in OT. He's obviously woken up this year and is back to form (other than those pesky faceoffs). I'm feeling good about Ovi and Backstrom this year.

While nobody was surprised that Boudreau did his line change shuffle tonight, seeing Knuble on the fourth line and the Carlson-Alzner pairing broken up was pretty surprising. It's been weird enough, for me at least, to see number 22 on the second line this season, but the fourth line? Man, I thought Perreault didn't belong down there. Thankfully, by the end of the game Knuble had moved back up the ranks and even got ice time with his old pals Backstrom and Ovechkin. Boudreau may have wanted to shake things up tonight, but all that really happened was he confused players by putting them with unfamiliar linemates. Just like the old days.
Roman Hamrlik was signed in the offseason to bring a veteran presence to the blueline,someone who could block shots, generate offense when needed, mentor the kids, and generally be one of the most defensively responsible guys on the ice. So hopefully there won't be many (any?) more games like this one. Playing a part in the first few goals scored against, with some saying he deserved some assists on the Anaheim goals, he finished with no points or shots on goal and a team worst -3, despite having the third-most ice time behind Wideman and Carlson. Hammer needs to put tonight behind him, shore up his game, and move on. But still. Yikes.
Defensive breakdowns and bad communication early on gave the Ducks an early 2-0 lead, and really none of the four goals Anaheim scored could be blamed on Vokoun (which is the kind of thing I don't say very often at all), and could probably be blamed on Boudreau as much as the players. Despite that, the Caps showed some of their best defensive play this season, holding the highly skilled Ducks to a mere 15 shots (6-5-4-0 by period). Not good for Vokoun's stats, but good news for the team. That effort, with a healthy Mike Green and familiarity amongst linemates again, is what they needed to carry over from last year.
On the opposite end of the ice, Jonas Hiller allowed five goals on 40 shots (9-12-18!-1 by period). They weren't all pretty, but that is still five goals for the league's leading offense, giving them an even 4.00 goals-for average. That's the kind of play they need to carry over from 09-10. Put 'em together and whaddya got? Bippity-boppity-winning.

Your Washington Capitals are now 8-2-0 through the first ten games of the season. It hasn't always been pretty, with four of those games decided in OT or the shootout, the ugly game in Vancouver, and the return of PK woes, but you don't have to win pretty for it to count in the end. I'll have more tomorrow on my thoughts of what lessons can be learned from these games, but for now, let's revel in the fact that the Caps are leading the league in point percentage and are perfect at Verizon Center. Let's keep winning, boys. And, of course, here are your NHL.com highlights:

Maybe I Was Wrong...

2011-10-26T21:59:00.000-04:00

...but it is still too soon to tell. While the Caps have been the most dominant team in the league so far (see Steven Hindle's article for some more details on exactly where the team ranks in different areas), they have not even played 10% of the regular season. Everyone (who is expected to get significant ice time, that is) is healthy, and the competition has either been weak or not at their best. The Flyers are the most glaring exception to this, and that win should be the shining star of this October. Carolina and Tampa Bay are weaker team than they were last year, and while the Panthers are somewhat better, they are still the Panthers. The win in Detroit was a sign of what this team can look like when all cylinders are firing, but they were playing their second game in as many days, on the road, and with their backup goalie in net. The 7-0 start is absolutely impressive regardless of any qualifiers, and it would be impressive even if it was seven straight home games against the Blue Jackets and Jets. However, those qualifiers are still there, are still worth looking at, and do still leave some questions unanswered. This post, though, looks at some of my opinions that may result in me eating my words.

Marcus Johansson should not be the second line center: He has four goals in six games, having been a healthy scratch on opening night due to his sub-par preseason play, including three game winners. All four goals came in the first period. His goal against the Red Wings was the furthest away from the net he had been for any goal. Two wrap-arounds and two hard-angle shots have gotten him off to a hot start. So you know what? I am sticking to my claim here. His primary linemates, Alexander Semin and Mike Knuble, have scored one goal each with MoJo in the lineup, and he did not assist on either one. He has been absolutely horrible at winning faceoffs, posting a team-worst 37.5% while getting the third-most faceoffs on the team behind Brooks Laich and Nicklas Backstrom. His goals all came from the sides of the net, three of them to the goalie's left plus the shot from Conklin's right. His offensive awareness is much better than last year, as are his deking abilities. But his skill set looks more and more like that of a two-way winger than of the playmaking center that the team wants him to be. Washington is so deep at forward that there is no reason to force him into a role that he just isn't suited for. Obviously it would take some line-shifting, but doing so early in the season is better than halfway through or during the playoffs.
Jason Chimera will not find success with the team: This one has seriously been put into question. He started off strong, getting four goals (including an empty netter) pretty quickly and not making any glaring errors while playing on the very successful "Meat and Potatoes Line." However, he has been absolutely invisible the past few games. After last season, a successful season for Chimera pretty much means scoring a bit more, hitting a bit more, and generally not being a liability. Obviously nobody expected him to keep up his scoring pace, but the last two parts there are his most important additions to the team. For now, the third line is working so solidly together that it is hard to say that I want them to break up. Nobody was really worried about Laich's productivity or Ward's role on the Capitals, so I think that Chimera is really the key to deciding how long the line should stay together. This bears watching closely, so that if it looks like there might be a better way of matching up players, Boudreau will be able to find the combo sooner rather than later.
Mathieu Perreault is not a good fit for the fourth line: I made this assertion because I think he is too gifted offensively and not physical enough to be an effective fourth-liner, so I thought he should be moved up higher in the lineup. Again, however, this has seriously been thrown into question as a result of the success the fourth line of Perreault, Jeff Halpern, and Matt Hendricks. Perreault is the only to have scored a goal so far, but those were the result of very solid defensive play and awareness. He is only credited with one hit, but he has yet to be on ice for a goal against, and as a line they have just been so good together. MP85's physicality is still an issue, though, and always will be because of his size. It remains to be seen how this will really matter on the fourth line, though, as they are currently playing like an incredibly responsible offensive threat. Perreault's spot on the team, much like Chimera's, is something to keep a close eye on. Again, for now, it seems hard to want to break up the combo.
Boudreau would not be able to coach this team: So far it seems I am just wrong on this one. For the most part, each game has looked better than the last. The lines have not been shuffled much, if at all, since Beagle was knocked out of the lineup in the Pittsburgh game. Just about everything is clicking. Two possible signs of weakness: (1) the shots against are sky-high, and Vokoun (probably?) can't possibly keep up this level of play throughout the year, and (2) the PK has fallen back down to the middle of the league. Luckily Vokoun has been stellar after his debut game, and the team has been responsible and hasn't had to go on the PK much. While I certainly do not want to go back to the non-scoring ways of last season, something needs to come together to give Vokoun a break and get the penalty kill working at a similar level to last year. If the team can keep up the offense, and get the PK percentage up, BB may actually have another shot at the Jack Adams (as much as it paaaaaiinnnsss me to say it). Once things start to go awry, though, be ready to see more of the line jumbling that we've become accustomed to. Hopefully it'll just bring out more of everyone's best, rather than confusing them as it seemed to last year.

So I will say that I was wrong about Boudreau's ability to coach this team, I'll tentatively say that Perreault and Chimera are doing fine where they are, but I'm not backing down on MoJo being a lousy option at center (but he is not a lousy player). This may be something to return to once a month and check up on these guys' (and my) progress.

Caps at Flyers Game Recap

2011-10-20T22:21:00.003-04:00

What do I know about Ovechkin? Talbot was right.

Tonight was billed as a test for the Capitals and the Flyers. Both have had strong starts to the season, and both made some gutsy moves in the off-season, especially in net. They are both expected to be Cup contenders this year and likely for years down the road. Washington spent far less money on their star goalie, and it looks like money can't buy everything. After two tight periods, the Capitals dominated the Flyers in the third and silence the home crowd in Philadelphia. Perreault, Hamrlik, and Ward all got their first goals of the season while Ovechkin got two. It wasn't a perfect game, if such a thing exists, but it was a strong effort for Washington all the way through. It looked a lot like back-to-back 60-minute games, but that might have just been my eyes playing tricks on me. Anyway, here are my five thoughts:

While I still don't think Perreault belongs on the fourth line, he certainly does not seem to care where he plays as long as he is in the game. One of the stronger players for the Capitals tonight, he got the tying goal late in the first period after reading a pass and firing a low shot that deflected off one of the Flyer's skates and added an assist on Hamrlik's goal later on (first goal for each guy this season). All those people who claim Johansson is the more defensive-minded of the young centers have to be questioning themselves after these first few games. Perreault has yet to be on ice for a single goal against and is credited with five takeaways and zero giveaways. MoJo has been on ice for three goals against with four takeaways and two giveaways. MP85 also has three points (1-2-3) in four games, while MoJo has four points (3-1-4) in five. This is all while Johansson has seen far more ice time, so take all that as you wish six games into the season. Personally I have always been an unabashed Perreault supporter and I have seen nothing but play to vindicate my support so far. Both still need serious work winning faceoffs, with neither being even near a 40% win percentage.
Dennis Wideman came to the Capitals last year to help shore up an injured blue line and spark a floundering powerplay. He soon fell victim to injury with a nasty hematoma in his leg and missed most of the time he spent with Washington. Well, now he is on a six game points streak and has been one of the most valuable guys on the team in all six games. He is still subject to the occasional defensive lapse, but overall he makes this year's Caps all the more dangerous with one of the best defensive corps in the league.
All that time with awful teams was just Vokoun's way of preparing for nights like this. He kept the Caps in this game even more than the offense did, holding the Flyers to just one goal until they got a meaningless second tally with 14.7 seconds left. Oh yeah, that required him to stop 40 shots, with 41 coming before that last goal. He is making this team look a lot better than they probably are right now.
Has the beast awoken? Ovechkin scored twice tonight, including a blast of a one-timer on the power play, bringing him to a season total of three. He still trails Chimera for the team lead... That right there should tell you just how much to read into goal-scoring trends in the first six games, but the Great 8 looked a bit more like his old self tonight. He laid out his old buddy Max "Ovechkin-is-a-Douche" Talbot for a questionable interference penalty and was putting shots on the net all night. Hopefully we'll see more of this Ovi on Saturday against the Red Wings, and throughout the season.
It's hard to criticize a team and coach that have a perfect record six games into the season, and after passing their first real "test" against another top-notch team... but that's what you have to do with a Cup contender. Just like I'm not sold on Perrault the fourth liner, I'm not a huge fan of Brouwer and Knuble on the 1st and 2nd lines, respectively. The 8-19-22 line has so much chemistry built up, while Semin and Knuble just clearly are not clicking. Semin in particular had a rough go of things tonight, being directly responsible for the Flyers scoring the first goal of the game. He may be trying to prove he does care after all, but playing cute little puck games on the blue line with Wayne Simmonds and Claude Giroux poking at the puck is asking for trouble. Brouwer said earlier today that he wanted to try and open up the ice for Alex and let him get back to his game (and become a more consistent scoring threat, himself). Obviously he was referring to Ovechkin, but I say the same attitude would work just as well with the other current Swede-Russian Alex pairing on the team. Put Knuble back where he is comfortable, and let Brouwer play his game on the second line, where he is probably more comfortable, too.

The test isn't over. Washington hosts (currently) undefeated Detroit on Saturday. The Red Wings will be playing their second game in as many days, but as of right now have not lost and lead the league in GAA. The Caps have already felled their two biggest foes in the Eastern Conference (Pitt and Philly), now they face a Western Conference dynasty. If they keep up the kind of effort we've seen so far, they'll either never lose again or all be on IR by Christmas. I give it even-up odds. NHL.com highlights below:

Caps - Panthers Recap

2011-10-18T22:22:00.000-04:00

After missing the Ottawa game, I'm back with a recap for the Capitals franchise-record setting win over the Panthers. The Caps have now opened the season with five straight wins for the first time in franchise history, including a franchise-best four wins at home. To cap it off, they earned a shutout against a division foe that demolished the Tampa Bay Lightning the night before. Johansson (PP), Semin, and Chimera (EN) scored while Vokoun earned the shutout. Here are my five thoughts:

Tonight, as just about everybod
That's a good goalie. You'll get a treat for
the shutout when we get back to the locker room.

y who would possibly be reading this knows, was a sort of homecoming for a couple players. Vokoun and Wideman were with the Panthers last year, and Matt Bradley was one of the most loved players on the Capitals for years. Tomas Fleischmann was one of the many players who suffered under Boudreau's line changing regime, getting shipped off to Colorado last year before signing with Florida this off-season. Jose Theodore, a member of the rotating door cast of goaltenders for Washington for two years, got the night off for Florida. For Vokoun and Wideman, it was a good night: Vokoun got his first shutout as a Capital and Wideman extended his points streak to five games. "Flash" had a decent game and saw a couple scoring chances, while "Brads" finished a -1 for the evening. I hope they have success in their careers, just as long as things go like tonight any time they play the Caps.
Marcus Johansson scored on Washington's only power play of the night, giving him three scores on the season. This was his first non-wraparound goal, but it wasn't too far off. MoJo saw that Ovechkin was double covered in addition to having a good look at the net, and decided to just try and force it in the corner by Markstrom's left side, and in the five-hole it went. The sophomore Swede is showing some of that offensive prowess that everyone talked about last year (but that I never really saw translate into anything other than a solidly mediocre season), and I am man enough to admit I may have been wrong about him. Let's not get too excited, though: as was noted by Joe Beninati and Craig Laughlin, the goal should have been an easy one to stop. Goalies today do not close off the posts quite like they used to, especially guys playing their first ever NHL game. He may have three goals, but temper expectations as they were close goals that all should have been stopped. But kudos to the kid for having the awareness to see that they actually would go in and making the necessary moves.
While he got his second straight game winner, Johansson is still leaving the second line center debate open a bit with his faceoff percentage. He only won 1 of 7 on the dot tonight. If he keeps up his goal scoring and his faceoff percentage, I see no reason why he shouldn't be moved to wing later on this season. The team really has too many centers, and on any given night you have at least two playing wing. Backstrom and Laich struggled a bit tonight, too, winning only 10 of their 26 combined faceoffs. The fourth line, made up of three natural centers in Perreault, Hendricks, and Halpern, lost only one faceoff. Perreault won both of his, Hendricks his only attempt, and Halpern won 8 of 9. Much has been said, often times by me, of how little faceoffs can actually mean in the context of a team's offense, but it is still something to keep an eye on since they do affect puck possession.
There have been games when you read the stats and see something like "Capitals shut outopponent and hold them to 20 shots," but think to yourself "Yeah, but it probably wasn't pretty." Tonight was not one of those games. The boys in red played the ever-elusive 60 minute game, and it really showed. The shot totals (32-20) and the score (3-0) are representative of that, and the score could easily have been even more lopsided than it was. While keeping up that kind of play for the remaining 77 games of the regular season could take a physical toll on the team, this is the kind of effort they will need in the postseason. It is refreshing to finally see it and know they can do it, now they just need to keep it up.
Florida must have been a little shocked at the lack of penalties. They scored four powerplay goals last night and got a shorty to boot. Tonight the Caps and Cats combined for three penalties total - two on us, one on them. Definitely another tribute to how well both teams played tonight. For years, Florida has been at the bottom of the bottom tier, but they have started this season strong and pose a legitimate threat as a dark-horse playoff contender. Markstrom played very well in net tonight, stopping 29 shots for a .923 save percentage. And if history is any indicator, he could challenge Theodore for starts for much of the season. The Panthers have a good future ahead. Add another team to the list challenging the South-Least Division nickname. Now if only the Jets would get on board the playoff train....

Now that the Caps have beaten three division opponents, a Cup-favorite team in the Penguins, and a man-I-wish-we-had-their-draft-spot team in the Senators, they go on the road to face the Flyers on Thursday before hosting the Western Conference's undefeated Red Wings on Saturday. It was a good win against a respectable team, but now is not the time to relax by any means. Five down, seventy-seven to go. Now for your NHL.com highlights:

Caps-Pens Recap

2011-10-13T23:19:00.000-04:00

Ceremonial puck drop in honor of the Lokomotiv plane crash
tragedy. Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images from NHL.com

The Capitals and Penguins have one of the fiercest rivalries in the sport. In recent years, the Caps have dominated the Penguins during the regular season, only losing twice in a shootout and once in regulation in the previous 14 games including a 7-for-7 record when playing in Pittsburgh. Now they can notch it up to 8-for-8. The Pens lead the NHL in points, even after tonight's loss, but they have also played twice as many games as the undefeated Capitals. These two teams will be battling all year, and tonight just got us started. Check out Lindsay Applebaum's write-up for the Capitals Insider for some more quick facts on the rivalry. For now, my five thoughts on the game:

Tomas Vokoun said he likes to play a game right after a particularly bad one. He made it very well known that he was not happy with his performance against the Lightning on Monday night. Well, tonight he showed that he certainly can bounce back. He was a huge reason the team only allowed one goal on the PK tonight despite the team taking five in regulation -- compared to the Penguins' zero. Oh yeah, and he stopped 39 of 41 shots, good for a .951 save percentage. This is why McPhee signed him, let's hope he keeps it up.
Speaking of the penalty kill, the Penguins were perfect this season going into tonight. They only took on penalty, and it was in OT, but that was all Washington needed. Backstrom and Wideman broke out on a 2-on-2 rush, and 19 shook off some of that off-season rust and threaded a beauty of a pass between the defenders' sticks. The puck landed right on the tape, and Wideman blasted the puck past former Caps' backup goalie Brent Johnson. Win.
The Capitals are now 3-0-0, seemingly a great start to the season. Points wise, it sure is. However, all three came in overtime or the shootout, meaning all three opponents (two division rivals and possibly their biggest rival in the league) all got a point apiece. Nor did the team really "Rock the Red" and dominate the other team in any game. The first two were just ugly hockey, and tonight Vokoun was the real star of the night, despite not actually being named one of the three stars. Washington only got 19 shots on net while allowing 41 on their own. I know everyone is impressed with the third line, and they should be, but I again feel the need to reiterate how much I think Boudreau is mis-managing his talent with the current combinations.
Ovechkin has now had three games to show that he is back to form, and unfortunately he has failed to do so. He was credited with a goal tonight, but Green fired the blast that nicked off Ovi's skate and up into the net. The Great 8 has not looked himself for the better part of a year now. Some of it is obviously the focus that every team puts on him, but that didn't stop him the first four years of his career. Captain Cap needs to find a way to turn the afterburners on and get this team rolling again. Backstrom got two assists tonight, so he has started his own breakthrough, while Semin and Green have looked good, too. Time for Fearless Leader to do his part.
The biggest story of the game is going to be the fight between Jay Beagle and Aaron Asham. Beagle appeared to have the upper hand, but got demolished by two hits to the jaw. While Beags was laid out and bleeding, Asham made a taunting gesture and proceeded to verbally assault Ovechkin and the other Capitals players. The Pens fans, too, showed a little less than classy behavior with their own cheering, but that is to be expected when your guy wins a fight. For what it's worth, Asham did the right thing in challenging Beagle after 83 flipped the lid off Pens all-star defender Kris Letang (and earned a roughing penalty in the process). Asham said in interviews after the game that he was sorry for his post-fight actions, and repeatedly called them classless. He seemed legit, but you know what? That's too bad. Don't be surprised if he pays for his actions next time he is on the ice against the Caps. Not a single player on the team was happy, and none will forget. These are the things that come back to haunt enforcers in future matchups. More drama for the storyline here.

No Crosby tonight, but we'll see him next time around.

When all is said and done, again, a win is a win. Especially one against the Penguins in their home arena. I hope Boudreau continues to lay into the team and hold them accountable. They can and should be much better than they've played so far. One final note on this front: my favorite target Marcus Johansson skated for the fifth-least amount of time of all Capitals skaters, ahead of only Hendricks, Halpern, Chimera, and Beagle, after a couple turnovers early in the game and being on ice for Pittsburgh's even-strength goal. Don't say you weren't warned: the second line center battle is not over yet. And now, your game highlights courtesy of NHL.com:

Capitals-Lightning Game Recap

2011-10-11T16:27:00.002-04:00

I know this is about 12 hours later than everyone else's recap, but let's be honest, I'm not here for breaking news. If for some reason you are reading this, I presume it's because you are here by accident, a bored friend, or you legitimately find my views intriguing and my wit beguiling. Thanks to maddening FCC blackout rules (I currently live 90 miles from DC, 45 from Baltimore, 45 from Philly, and no local station airs NHL games of any sort, yet the nationally televised Versus feed was blacked out), I spent the first ten minutes of the game cursing Armstrong Cable and the government and missed the Canes' and Caps' first goals before I found a decent stream online. That said, here are my five thoughts on the other 55 minutes of the game:

I know we're only two games in, and Vokoun and Neuvirth have only had one game each, but the Capitals have now allowed 8 goals and gone to OT twice in two games. Vokoun looked pretty bad in the first two periods, allowing crappy goals from awful angles, but you have to accept that those goals are going to go in sometimes. Goalies have bad games, bad shots go in, and that's why good coaches like Boucher encourage their players not to abandon a play and to take shots like that. I'm not worried, except insofar as I'm worried that Boudreau will give more ice time to Neuvirth as a result. Vokoun is the better goalie, hands-down, and he needs to get the starts. The Avalanche and Varlamov allowed two goals on 38 shots in their season opener and recorded a shutout against the defending Stanley Cup champion Bruins. (Very) early returns appear to favor Colorado on that trade. I really do not think that Washington is going to get the lottery picks so many assume were coming. I actually think there is a decent (read: 10% or so) chance that our boys in red may have a better draft spot with their own picks.
Despite struggles in net by both goalies (I refuse to join in giving praise to Neuvirth for what really was a pedestrian performance), I am glad to at least see that the offense has returned - even if not on the top line. Ovechkin and Backstrom really need to find ways to get open and get shots on net. They are obviously facing the toughest defensive competition every night, but that is because they are supposed to be one of the top-five tandems in the league. The skill is there, now it is time to get it done. If they can start scoring again, the league is again looking at the offensive juggernaut from two seasons ago, and goaltending struggles be damned.
Jason Chimera. That's pretty much the whole thought there. Years of stone hands and an inability to maximize on his gift of speed, and now he has three goals to start the year off. AND he is on the third line. I still think that the team's roster would best be served by having him on the fourth line, but kudos to him for bailing the team out this week. The third line has looked excellent, and he is a big big reason why. He looked awesome last night, and I hope he continues to prove me wrong about him.
Brooks Laich and Marcus Johansson are two players that I think are being misused. Laich has been winning faceoffs and setting up plays on the third line, allowing Joel Ward and Jason Chimera to get offense going. Johansson did not seem quite up to the challenge of setting up Semin last night, and his offense came as a result of his speed and a big mistake by Roloson. I'd like to see MoJo and Laich switch spots for a couple games. Give Laich the opportunity to win the faceoffs and set up Semin and Brouwer, and give Johansson a chance to work his speed on the third line and hope that Chimera is not being fluky with his offense.
Mathieu Perreault was also misused last night. He is not a fourth-line guy, but he centered Hendricks and Halpern, and skated a team-low 8:26. MP85 still netted an assist and was a +1 for the second consecutive game, though. Boudreau has admitted testing out both MJ90 and MP85 on wing in practices, and I would love to see that put into effect in a real game. Ideally Johansson would be on wing solely because Perreault is better at faceoffs. But if there really is a controversy here, why not settle it by giving the fans and players what they want: ice time for both of the promising youngsters.

Not the greatest start to the season, and certainly not what fans expected in terms of goaltending, but wins are wins, especially against division rivals. And again, the Caps allowed eight goals, but scored nine plus two in a shootout. If the offense keeps up and the Vokoun locks down, this could be a good year after all.

The Capitals and the Myth of Consistency, Pt. 1

2011-10-10T18:04:00.000-04:00

So when you don't live in the DC area, and you don't have Center Ice, and you can only get a mediocre feed on the internet... you miss a lot of a particular Caps game. So I was not totally able to watch enough of the game to give a decent recap, other than to say that I am still not at all impressed with Neuvirth, that I think it is even more apparent that good teams know to shoot it glove high every time on him, and that Chimera must read this blog because he scores every game after I say he should get traded. But back to the Neuvirth thing: a lot of the recaps I have read all say that he was strong in net, and all summer and during last year he was referred to as consistent. They said Varlamov struggled with consistency. Neuvirth did fairly consistently get wins, and Varly had a losing record. But teams win games, goalies are only one aspect of that.

For example, last night Neuvirth allowed three goals on 31 shots through over 62 minutes of playing time, and got a win. Varly allowed two goals on 38 shots in 59 minutes of regulation, and his team lost because they could not score a single goal. Should Neuvirth get credit for the win, and Varly for the loss? Most logical people would say absolutely not, especially when watching Neuvirth sprawl all over the ice, give up lots of rebounds, and be too far out of position on each of the three goals scored on him. So in this post, I will examine why people think Neuvirth is consistent and why I disagree.

So one thing I learned in business school was how to use Excel, so I figured this is as good of a reason as any to try it out in the "real" world. Now, for reference, in 2010-2011 Neuvirth had a record of 27-12-4 with a .914 SV% and 2.45 GAA in 45 starts. Varlamov had a record of 11-9-5 with a .924 SV% and 2.23 GAA in 25 starts. For goalies who started 25 games or more, Varlamov was tied for 4th in save percentage and Neuvirth was tied for 23rd. For GAA, Varly was 4th in the same group of goalies and Neuvirth was tied for 14th. The only three goalies who were ahead of Varly in both categories were Tim Thomas, Roberto Luongo, and Pekka Rinne: your Vezina finalists for the season. Neuvirth's numbers put him squarely in the middle-to-bottom third of the league for starting or 1A goalies. However, he is viewed as a more consistent player, and Varly got shipped out. Let's compare their seasons using graphs.

Each graph tracks the goalies' performance in one of three measures for each game they played (as opposed to started): Goals Against (not GAA), Save Percentage, and Shots Against. One outlier game for Varlamov has been left out, and two for Neuvirth. The 7-0 loss against the Rangers is excused for Varly, while Neuvy gets a pass on a game where he allowed 6 goals as well as a game where he played for less than one minute. Every goalie has those games, and all can agree they are not the norm and realistically should not be considered in a comparison such as this. With all that said, here is the GA chart:

A best fit line here would show you that yes, throughout the season, Neuvirth averaged 2.45 goals against per game. It is a remarkably straight line. I chose not to include it here because that is not what we are looking at. We know what his GAA is, my issue is with the notion that he was consistent in that. Consistent implies that in just about each game, he is allowing two or three goals. However, if you look at the chart (Neuvirth is red), you see that, from game to game, he was anything but consistent. He allowed four goals in eight separate games. In all, his goals against were outside the one-to-three goal range in 12 of 45 games. Neuvirth had a good October, and was very solid during the second half of February and the first half of March. The rest of the year, though, he was either injured or allowing three or more goals per game, typically a number that leads to losses. Given his win-loss record, though, it is obvious that the offense bailed him out on these occasions.

Varly, on the other hand, allowed four goals only twice, and they were balanced out with two shutouts. In the interest of disclosure, his best-fit line trends slightly upwards, largely because he had his shutouts early in the season. Most of his part of the chart is centered in the one-to-three goal range, with only four of 26 games venturing out of that region. In terms of goals against game-to-game, Varly comes out ahead in the battle of consistency.

This chart shows the game-to-game save percentages. Again, Neuvirth is in red and Varlamov in blue. In October, the month where Neuvirth won rookie-of-the-month accolades from the NHL and first cemented the notion that he could be a starter, his save percentages were all over the place. Because of his low save percentage on Oct. 19, as well as his and Varly's low percentages in early February, the graph makes it appear that the variation really is not all that great. When talking about NHL-caliber numbers, though, you really want your goalies to consistently stop at least 90% of the shots against him. Realistically, if he only stops that many, your team's GM is very likely browsing the market for a new starter (here's looking at you, Theodore). Routinely varying between 85% and 95% to average out around 91-92% is not the ideal, but that is Neuvy's game. Honestly, as much as I am not a fan of the kid, I was shocked at how often he stopped less than 90% of his shots (19 out of 45 games). It absolutely baffles me how he was ever considered ahead of Varly (when both were healthy) on the depth chart when looking at those kinds of numbers. A model of consistency he is not. Varlamov, on the other hand, saw his SV% drop below 90% only three times in 26 appearances. Almost every game was spent in the 90-95% save percentage range, the very kind of consistency you want to see, even if the season percentage is the same as Neuvirth's. Varly:2, Neuvy:0.

Finally, the shots against chart. Obviously this does not speak to the goaltenders' play. Shots against for a goalie are a factor of the play of the team in front of him. I put this up mostly because I was curious about another commonly mentioned aspect of the Capital's "strengths" last season: being better defensively. The Caps' goalies backstopped the team to one of their strongest seasons ever in terms of goals against, and many attributed this to better defensive play of the forwards. Personally, I never saw it, and it was always my belief that the team just had better goalies than Theodore, Huet, and late-career Kolzig. The best-fit lines here bare that out to an extent (it is hard to say how much the number of "good shots" increased or decreased as the year went on. I can only speak to overall shots). On average, by the end of the season Neuvirth was facing one less shot per game than at the start of the year, and Varlamov was facing about two less shots. Throughout the year, though, Varly averaged more shots against than Neuvy, yet put up consistently and substantially better numbers. Neuvirth, in fact, faced fairly absurd inconsistency in the number of shots against, while Varly was pretty much guaranteed to see somewhere around 30 shots.

It is certainly possible that Neuvirth was a victim when it came to the number of shots against, but given that both his shots against and his save percentage (which NHL all-time record holder for the stat Tim Thomas calls "the best individual stat for a goalie") were lower than Varlamov's, I'm not quite buying that argument. When it comes to consistency and Neuvirth, the two are not quite as buddy-buddy as many would have you think. Just because hockey media says something is a certain way does not make it so.

If I Were A Gambling Man, and I Am

2011-10-06T17:33:00.000-04:00

So the popular thing to do these days is predict what is going to happen this season based on minimal information and experience, speculation as to what the hell coaches are actually talking about, and guessing who will or will not be injured. So let me look at my own tea leaves and tell you what to expect come June with the Capitals and around the league.

I think I got old seaweed by accident...

Caps-Centric Predictions

Ovechkin returns to form with something to prove. He will finally emerge as the team leader both in example on the ice and with words off the ice. 54 goals, 48 assists, 102 points in 80 games played.
At least two of the following will be gone by the trade deadline: Chimera, King, Schultz, and Knuble. My money is on the first two. King has barely played and could be moved for a late-round pick. Chimera just signed a two year contract extension at a palatable price with slightly decreasing cap hits, and is one of the best skaters in the league. However, I think it is unlikely he sees success with the team this year, as he really has not found chemistry with any of the seemingly dozens of linemates he has had in Washington. Schultz and Knuble are both players that other teams could use, and that the Capitals could stand to lose given the team's depth and likely returns in a trade.
Backstrom gets a nomination for the Selke after leading the team in +/-, seeing significant time on the PP and PK, and finishing in the top 10 for points in the league.
Semin and Green return to their peak forms as well. By all accounts, Semin is finally making efforts to show the basics of team play like asking the coach questions and speaking more English. Green is in good shape and has had a full summer to recover from nagging injuries. Time with Hamrlik as his defensive partner will give him a good mentor.

Hockey suit up!

Perreault is kept on a short leash and Johansson is given free reign. MP85 gets no more than 50games, MJ90 will not sit aside from injury. I say this because this is just how the team operates. Some players (Perreault, Fehr, Varlamov) are judged only by the negatives despite having many more positives (playmaking and scoring, scoring, and being the 4th best goalie in the league last year). Others (Johansson, Chimera, Neuvirth) are practically assigned a positive view before their first shift, and no matter how weak their play is and for how long, it will always be excused away or blatantly ignored (weak faceoffs and inconsistency, turnovers and inability to finish, rebounds and soft goals and inconsistency).
The Capitals do not make it out of the second round of the playoffs yet again. Boudreau is finally fired, and in a shocking move, so is George McPhee. Leonsis finally loses his patience and interjects himself into team management when it becomes clear that McPhee is grasping at straws.

Around the League

Playoff misses in the East: Winnipeg, Carolina, Toronto, NYI, Montreal, Ottawa and New Jersey.
Playoff misses in the West: Minnesota, Edmonton, Calgary, Phoenix, St. Louis, Dallas and Nashville. The Blue Jackets make it in with strong offense and mediocre goaltending, while Nashville misses out despite excellent goaltending because of a lack of offense. Think of a lesser version of the Caps with Theodore vs. a better version of the Panthers with Vokoun.
Semyon Varlamov (Avalanche) again finishes in the top five in SV% and GAA, getting 50 starts and at least 25 wins in regulation. He only misses 10 games due to injury and Colorado finishes seventh in the West.
The Panthers make a strong run for the playoffs in the second half. Clemmensen plays into the starting job, and the team is led by Fleischmann and a resurgent Booth in points. They make it in on their second to last game, eighth in the East.
The Penguins win it all: Division, Conference, Lord Stanley. I really hate saying that, but barring even more soul-crushing injuries, the team and the coach are too good. Having Crosby, Malkin, and Staal back and healthy down the middle is terrifying to face. I think James Neal will break out with the team this year, and Fleury will perform as usual: good enough during the regular season, and then phenomenal in the playoffs. They'll beat the Kings in the Finals after the Canucks shockingly flame out in the first round.
Ovechkin wins the Richard and Hart. Crosby wins the Ted Lindsay, and Malkin wins the Art Ross. None of last year's Vezina contenders get back-to-back nominations. Shea Weber wins the Norris.

That cup on the right doesn't seem big enough for my tastes.

Assuming anyone actually reads this and has an opinion, I'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments section below. Right now I'm mostly writing these posts for my own sake, but I'd like to think someone out there agrees or disagrees with me.

Annnnd We're Back

2011-10-05T00:18:00.002-04:00

So after taking most of the summer off, much like the Capitals, I am back...also much like the Capitals. It's been a rough few months for me and for hockey in general. There has been a lot of tragedy, a lot of loss. We've had the Lokomotiv plane crash, the deaths of three enforcer-type players, and Alex Ovechkin learned yesterday that a close relative passed away. I personally lost someone very close to me, and have had to move out of Pittsburgh and back to Maryland as my life goes through kind of a rough patch overall. I guess the blog name is kind of a misnomer now, but hopefully I can move back to the City of Bridges soon enough. But life moves on for most of us, and we should all realize what a gift each day is and enjoy what time we do have left. So let's put the summer behind us, and look ahead to the fall and the NHL regular season!

Not sure what the string is for. Maybe to distract you when things go wrong?

Training camp is over. The roster battles, for now, are over. This morning the Caps announced their 23 man roster after making final cuts, sending Cody Eakin, Matias Sjogren, and Dmitry Orlov down to Hershey for more development. Jay Beagle and Mathieu Perrault won the battle for the two remaining forward spots after several years each of shuttling between Hershey and Washington. Here are your 2011-2012 Washington Capitals:

At LW: Ovechkin, Brooks Laich*, Troy Brouwer*, Jason Chimera, D.J. King
At RW: Mike Knuble, Alex Semin, Troy Brouwer*, Joel Ward, Jay Beagle, Matt Hendricks
At C: Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson, Brooks Laich*, Mathieu Perreault, Jeff Halpern
At D: John Carlson, Karl Alzner, Mike Green, Roman Hamrlik, Dennis Wideman, Jeff Schultz, John Erskine (Tom Poti will be on Long-Term Injury Reserve and does not count against the roster or salary cap during that time)
At G: Tomas Vokoun, Michal Neuvirth
(*) Indicates likely flexibility between positions.

In general I have tried to list the guys in their presumptive order on the depth chart. Obviously the team will not dress all these players. One of the seven defenseman and two of the fourteen forwards will have to sit on any given night. I addressed what I thought the roster should look like in an earlier post this summer, before training camp even started. A little bit has changed, but not a whole lot.

Prevailing wisdom at the moment is just that: at the moment. During the preseason, there was a lot of flux in the lineup, lots of guys playing on lines they probably won't see much of during the regular season. My thoughts on what the starting lineup should be are, admittedly, quite different than what you will read anywhere else. However, I am smarter than most people and you should just trust that what I say is right, even if (especially because?) you will never see Boudreau put this combo out there.

Top Line, or If it Ain't Broke Don't Fix It

On the top line, fans saw a good bit of Johansson and Brouwer alongside Ovechkin during the preseason. There is a very good chance that Brouwer will stay up there for now, but barring early success, I think that would be a short-lived experiment, as it will require a couple of other forwards to play out of their normal positions. Realistically, Knuble has that spot on lockdown for most of the season, and Backstrom has the top line center on lock probably until 2020, save a couple games. This is the epitome of the "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" philosophy.

Two years ago, this line combined for 263 points. Last season was a down year for the whole team, whether it was due to injuries, stylistic changes, "saving themselves for the playoffs," or any other excuse. I think it was a matter of bad coaching and a lack of consistency and chemistry combined with injuries, but we're putting all that behind us, remember? Knuble is getting old, but his productivity over the past eight seasons has been pretty consistent, scoring 20+ goals in each, and a low of 40 points last year. He's not exactly the ageless wonder that Teemu Selanne is, but there is no reason to break up the chemistry that the 8-19-22 line shares.

Second Line, or the Anti-MoJo Rant

Here is where things are really tricky. All we really know is that Alex Semin is most likely going to play right wing on this line for about 70% of the season, with the other 30% spent nursing an injury or trying to spark offense on the top line. Most out there right now are assuming that Johansson will play center and Brouwer or Laich will play left wing. This, if you ask me, is ridiculous. Most Capitals fans, and every single hockey blogger that I can find, have joined the team management in getting behind Johansson and forcing him into the second line center role. It is ludicrous. Last year was the first time he played North American hockey, and I understand that he picked up his offense in the second half of the season, but he showed nothing to settle the ongoing second line center debate in the nation's capital.

If you're a center, this is your first job every shift. Nothing
witty here, just trying to get you thinking about this kid.

Through his first 34 games Johansson was 6-5-11, and in his final 35 games he went 7-9-16. If you extrapolate those out, he was on about a 16-21-37 point pace for 82 games. In only nine of those 35 games did he have a faceoff win percentage of 50% or better. Over the season he posted the worst faceoff numbers of any Caps center, winning a horrendous 40.5%. We are talking about the second line center on a Stanley Cup contender. It is acceptable for a guy in that role to lose faceoffs if he scores points (Evgeni Malkin has similar faceoff numbers over his career), and it might be acceptable for him to have middling points if he is dominant on the dot. You can't have both flaws and legitimately be in contention for the 2C role. The Capitals are not in a rebuilding year, they are not a mid-tier team, and Johansson was not a top-level rookie in the NHL last year. Brooks Laich is a natural center, puts up points, can win faceoffs, knows Semin, and is getting paid $6.5 million this year. He fits the more traditional role of a second-line center in that he works hard, skates hard, scores, and is the most versatile player on the team. He gets top minutes on the powerplay *and* the penalty kill.

Additionally, Mathieu Perreault has show a decent amount of success playing alongside Laich and Semin in the past, and he was the team's top offensive player in the preseason. He, too, struggles at faceoffs, but not to the extent that MJ90 does. By all accounts, Perreault has worked on his strength and maintaining a consistent effort each night to counter his two biggest weaknesses. He is at least as talented offensively as Johansson. By mid-season, I would like to see him in that 2C role, but I know it will take at least that long to prove he is ready to Boudreau.

If the NHL dosn't work out, he can always try out for the
French adaptation of Phantom of the Opera

I am not saying that Johansson is not skilled, I do not think he is a bad player nor do I think he will fail to progress this year. I'm not even saying he is a lousy second line center option in the NHL. I am saying, however, that he is a lousy option for second line center on the Washington Capitals. I was lucky enough to go see the Caps beat the Sabres at home this past weekend, and I got to see it with a good friend, fellow puckhead, and former blogging comrade. We both agreed that Johansson looked much more like a winger trying to play center. MoJo is fast, agile, and will develop into a decent scorer because of his skill set. He can blow by other players, and he is almost at the point where he can deke himself out of rough situations. That said, I would love to see him play wing.

So who should play on the second line? First half of the season: Brouwer, Laich, Semin. Second half: Laich, Perreault, Semin. In this scenario, Laich wouldn't be called on to play wing very much in the first half, and it would give Semin two linemates who play hard and can open up the ice a bit for him to work his magic, should he feel like caring that day. In the second half, I expect Perreault to have developed some offensive consistency, and to get used to playing in the NHL more than the AHL. He'll be able to set up Semin and bring out more of the finesse game, and teams would have a hard time focusing their energy on shutting down each of these three. This line would be more of a scoring line, and could easily be a top line on half of the teams out there. The biggest thing to note here is that I don't see any reason to put Laich on the third line at all this year, despite what so many are saying online (especially at Japer's Rink, the top Caps blog in the land).

Third Line, or Who Needs an Energy Line?

Usually, teams have four lines, and those four lines have roles. The top line is your best players, the forwards you think will score the most points and log the most minutes. Your second line has guys who play hard, score, and can be used as more versatile players, but aren't quite good enough to beat out the top line guys at a given position. The third line is typically your "Energy Line." They skate hard, hit hard, and do their best to wear the other team out while still posing a decent scoring threat. Defensively responsible, they get more limited minutes than the top two lines, but are still called on in key situations when the top-six aren't getting it done. They typically will not face the strongest competition as a result of all this. This is also the line that is usually the most flexible, with players rotating in an out of the lineup, as well as changing positions and filling in gaps when necessary.

Now, before we continue, look back at the Capitals' roster, and look back at who I think the top six players should be. Like the second line, the only thing we really know for certain is that Joel Ward is unlikely to see ice time pretty much anywhere but as the third line RW. He is the prototypical player for that spot. Last season, Johansson, Chimera, and Eric Fehr (traded to Winnipeg in July) logged the most minutes together. It didn't work out too great, as evidenced by low scoring and some of the worst +/- seen on the team. Chimera has stone hands and just can't ever seem to put the puck in the net, and MoJo was figuring out what to do with less rink space and constantly giving the puck to the other team. Fehr was in and out with shoulder injuries, and was the brightest spot when it came to scoring with 20 points in his limited ice time.

When was the last time you saw a Capitals player have a full playoff beard?

I see no reason for the Capitals to have an energy line this year. This team has so much skill that they could field a third line that is about as good as any other team's second line. Why not have players that complement each other in a way that the opposition has to handle three lines of constant scoring threats, rather than forcing a roster that fits traditional roles? The Capitals saw their greatest success when the offense was opened up. The goaltending is better than it was in 09-10 (I'm not yet sold that it is better than last year, go ahead and read my June and July posts for more on that), and the defense is the best it has been in ages.

Based on my second line thoughts, I think Perreault should center Johansson on LW and Ward at RW, with MP85 and MoJo switching roles as the need may be for the first half. In the second half, Johnasson can center Brouwer and Ward. Depending on need and level of play, Matt Hendricks can also fill in here as needed throughout the season. Ward very likely will not be the goal-scorer that Fehr showed himself capable of being, but nobody can deny he plays hard and well. Johansson has speed and hands, and Perreault is right there with him. They won't win a ton of faceoffs, but the competition this line would face would be weak enough that it would not take much to gain control of the puck and finish in the offensive zone more often than they start there. Replace Perreault with Brouwer, and you have a Cup winner who can score and hit with a speedy center and a hard working right winger. The skill sets of these players really do fit more with a traditional second line, and both Brouwer and MoJo will in fact see time on the second line. If they are good enough for that role, why not just make the third line into a backup second line? The goal here is to win. The Capitals roster is skilled enough that, with the right coaching, the team should obliterate just about everyone else. I say let the boys loose.

Fourth Line, or Who Needs Fourth Liners?

Ok, I lied. The Capitals should have an energy line. It just shouldn't be the third line. If you've been paying attention, we're down to five forwards: Jason Chimera, Jeff Halpern, Matt Hendricks, Jay Beagle, and D.J. King. Chimera was third liner last year. Halpern was a third liner for Montreal last year. Matt Hendricks showed he has the grit and the offensive ability to play on the third line. I say you have your fourth line right there. They'll just play like a third line normally would.

Blue Steel won't help you here, Beagle.

The fourth line is usually your grinders, your big guys, your enforcers, faceoff specialists, and other one-role guys. Other teams cringe when they come on the ice not because they are going to be scored on, but because somebody is probably going to get laid out and everyone will have a bruise. When your team is stuck in their own end, you send out your fourth line to push back into the other end of the ice through winning faceoffs and literally pushing the other team toward their own net. Boyd Gordon (Phoenix) and Dave Steckel (New Jersey) won upwards of 60% of their draws last year, but barely put up any points. Jeff Halpern won only marginally less of his faceoffs, but put up nearly 30 points.

The Caps can have a fourth line of Chimera, Halpern, and Hendricks that has all the skills of traditional third lines as well as traditional fourth lines. Throw in Beagle and King as roster fill-ins for matchups and injuries, and you have a line that can skate, win faceoffs, hit, fight, and score, all with consistency. With the exception of Chimera (an abysmal -10 through 81 games despite 26 points, only two of which were on the powerplay) you have a very defensively solid line. King is primarily a fighter, although it would be nice to see him let loose to actually play hockey on those nights he dresses. Beagle is decent bottom-six option, and would probably be on the starting roster on most other teams (and let's be honest, with the bias against Perreault he'll probably start on this one), but the team's depth should force him into the fill-in role with King, though with more time actually filling in.

Defense and Goaltending, or Things That Are of Little Concern

There is no controversy here this year. You know who the top six defensemen are, and you probably know who matches with who. You know the goaltending tandem, and you know who is #1 and who is #2. On top of that, each defenseman is a top-four guy just about anywhere else, and both goalies could have the starting job for more than half of the NHL.

By the end of last season, John Carlson and Karl Alzner were the top pairing, partly because of their level of play and partly due to injuries. There is no reason to think that they won't continue as the top pair for now. Mike Green and Roman Hamrlik will likely be the second pairing. Green and Jeff Schultz have traditionally been partners, but Schultz had a fairly weak outing last year, and Hamrlik is an undeniably better player than Schultz. Hamrlik is also an NHL veteran with the experience and skills to help Green round out his game and finally transition into the elite player we all know he can be. Schultz and Dennis Wideman will make an admirable third pairing. Realistically, Carl-zner and the Green-Hamrlik pairings are each great options for top pairings, with the 55-6 pairing being about on par with most other second pairings on other top teams. This will be the first time that the team has had three right-handed puck-moving defensemen (Carlson, Green, and Wideman), and each will be paired up with more of a stay-at-home shutdown player (Alzner, Hamrlik, and Schultz). Matching up defenders like that is the ideal for elite teams. Hamrlik also has the ability to take on a more offensive role when called on to do so. John Erskine will undoubtedly be the seventh defenseman after his best season to date. He is currently nursing an injury, so when the season starts we can probably expect to see Sean Collins or Dmitry Orlov called up for that fill-in role, but the seven guys that the team will carry for the season are pretty much set in stone.

Alfred E. Neuman, philosopher and soulless ginger.

Tomas Vokoun was the bargain signing of free agency, and widely regarded as the best move any GM made during the summer. I, along with my good friend and fellow hockey blogger Meesh (check out his site, CrosbyFTW, linked at the top for Pens coverage and a look around the league) and surely a few others, feel that it was the best move McPhee could have made after making a horrible move in trading away Semyon Varlamov. He has shown remarkable skill year after year while playing on sub-par teams and is considered an elite goalie. There are questions as to how he will handle playing on an elite team for the first time in his career, as it may call for different skills and a different mindset. He has also shown weakness at the end of the season and has minimal, unsuccessful playoff experience. This could be a result of simply playing too many games, though, and only time will tell how good of a move this really was. With Michal Neuvirth as backup, and Braden Holtby anxiously creeping in the wings, the goaltending situation in Washington is as good as it has ever been, and is among the best in the league. I, again with Meesh and a few others, disagree with many analysts that Neuvirth should be ahead of Holtby or should have been ahead of Varly on the depth chart, but he is certainly a top-tier option for backup behind someone like Vokoun. I'd rather have him there than, say Brent Johnson or Dany Sabourin (the Caps and Pens really do share a lot of players for such an intense rivalry...).

Conclusion, or With the Right Coach...

What I'm trying to say here is that I'm just not that fast.

This is the year (if McPhee, Boudreau, and all the skaters want to keep their jobs) that Washington needs to stop holding itself back and stop listening to everyone else. Do what works. Run and gun, skate hard, hit hard, and score often. Play smart hockey, but realize that there is a top-tier group of guys playing behind the forwards to catch the occasional mishap. The team is solid defensively and in net. Boudreau figured out how to get top-level penalty killing last year, and has mostly retained his main PK guys. There is no reason to regress there. Aside from the PK, which has little to do with the rest of the game, I'd say this to BB: Do NOT play the defensive style of last year. It's like tying one of Usain Bolt's legs to my own, and then having him run the 40-yard dash. Yeah, we'll finish the race, and he'll drag me along to a decent showing, but we aren't going to win the gold.

Let them loose. The talent is there to have three scoring lines and one of, if not the best and most dangerous fourth lines in the NHL today. All it will take is the right coaching. Do NOT shuffle the lines twice a game and three times on Sunday. Most of these guys are vets now, and the others are rookies or sophomores. Let them develop chemistry. Let them develop a consistent spot and role on the team. The teams that have won the Cup aren't known for having someone different play 2C or 1RW or 3LW every night. You know who the top three-to-six are in Pittsburgh, in Boston, in Chicago, in Anaheim, in Vancouver, San Jose, and just about every other team that has a shot this year. The reason Carlson and Alzner were so great last year is because they played together in Hershey, and they stuck together all year in Washington. Let it happen with the forwards, too. You can't judge a book by it's cover, and you can't judge the success of a forward line by three games.

In reality, my prediction for the year is far less optimistic. Boudreau will shuffle the lines. Semin will play left wing next to MoJo and Knuble, Brouwer will be on the top line, and Perreault will only get into a third of the team's games before being traded at the deadline. The offense won't be there aside from Ovechkin, and the Caps won't win the division with Coach BB. Not unless he gives up trying to fix what isn't broken, unless he goes back to before the Montreal series from the 09-10 playoffs, and realizes THAT is how to play these guys. Washington has spent a year overreacting to what really was just a freak event. This is one of the only times a team needs to regress in order to progress. Expect failure if they try to emulate last year in any way. Expect failure if Boudreau is coaching after Thanksgiving and the team isn't winning in regulation two games out of every three. Look, I called the Caps losing to Tampa Bay. I won on Bodog when they lost to Montreal. I love this team, and I want them to win, but I do not expect them to do so. Not without changing by undoing changes. Here's hoping that I'm either right or wrong. Right that the team will win if they forget about the past 18 months and that they do so, or wrong that they'll flop if they don't.

Either way: C-A-P-S CAPS CAPS CAPS!!!


Let's not forget the dream here: A kiss from Hayden Panetierre. And that shiny cup thing, too.

Roster Thoughts for the 11-12 Season

2011-07-17T14:43:00.000-04:00


Tonight. You.

So McPhee finally went ahead and signed Karl Alzner. Two years, $2.57 million. Considering most people, myself included, thought Alzner would get at least $3 million *per* year, that's a steal. While I really do believe that Alzner needs a new agent, and only half-jokingly think I could take on that role, this is a great deal as far as the Capitals organization is concerned. Today was also the last day of development camp. While the roster likely is not complete, the recent moves by McPhee have given the team some upgrades in secondary areas and given a much clearer view of who to expect on the ice this fall. My well-documented thoughts on trading Varly and Fehr and the Ward signing aside, I actually do think the roster is pretty strong.. As it stands today, here is what the roster (most likely) looks like:

LW	C	RW		D
Ovechkin	Backstrom	Knuble	Green		Hamrlik
Brouwer	Laich	Semin	Carlson		Alzner
??	Johansson	Ward	Schultz		Wideman
Chimera	Halpern	Hendricks

This lineup assumes a couple of things, of course. First, that McPhee will not make any other trades, or at least ones involving these particular players. Second, and piggybacking on the first, that Poti will not count against the cap due to retirement or placement on long-term injured reserve, thus actually giving the team the cap space to dress these lines and give the team about $2 million in space. We know the top line is not going anywhere, same as the third line. Laich, Halpern, and Hendricks aren't going anywhere either. Nor are any of the defensemen not named Schultz. Semin is pretty much constantly attached to various trade rumors, and Chimera is looking more and more like the odd winger out. Chimera simply does not have the skill set to be a second line winger, and he did pretty poorly last year on the third line with Johansson centering him. At the same time, he doesn't really show the physicality that is typically expected on a fourth line in today's NHL. There is always a chance that McPhee could trade him for a piece that better fits the puzzle, but I haven't seen anything on the interwebs to substantiate that thought.

A little clumsy, but it gets the job done

Likewise, Schultz is looking a bit out of place, too. Last season was not a particularly good one, and 09-10 is looking more and more like a fluke year. I would be surprised to see Hamrlik, with his experience and contract, to play anywhere but on the top pairing with Green (Schultz's usual spot), while Carlson and Alzner are too good to play third pairing. I would expect Wideman, as the other big-money puck-moving D-man, to see time on the third line as a result, with the remaining roster spot going to whoever plays best alongside him. Poti has almost no chance of seeing the roster, and Erskine is at best the 7th defensman now, possibly 8th if uber-prospect Dmitri Orlov makes the lineup. So we will accept this "lineup" with a grain of salt.

The top line is pretty much set in stone at this point. Everything else has a bit of leeway. Assuming Semin stays, he is locked in at the second line RW. There have been rumblings that Laich will see a lot of time on the third line, but I just cannot buy into that with the current payroll. Johansson is by no means ready to be a second line center on a team shooting for the Cup (honestly, I still don't see why he is on the team, but that is a different story and a battle that was lost long ago). Brouwer will probably see most of his ice time in the 2LW role. Johansson somehow won the Caps' confidence last year despite what (only I think?) was a pretty mediocre year, even for a rookie. Ranking 271st in the league while playing in 69 games really is not what you are looking for from a top-6 forward, so I think he will probably spend most of his time on the 3rd line. Joel Ward will almost certainly play the 3RW the entire season, and his skill set makes him a good fit there.

Taking "strides" to improve his game?

As for the 3LW, that was usually Jason Chimera's spot last season, but as I noted, he did not perform very well there. Instead of Chimera, I would expect that spot to go to one of the prospects. Top pick right now is probably Matias Sjogren, since he has experience playing in the Elite League, is a self-proclaimed defensive forward who has shown some scoring skill to boot, and is older than the other kids. Stanislav Galiev, while young, has looked pretty good, and will be a strong competitor for the role as well. Cody Eakin fell just short of making the team last year, and you know a guy like that has only gotten better. Not to mention ever-present fan favorite Mathieu Perreault itching to keep a Capitals sweater on for more than a few games. Chimera and Johansson have some very serious competition, and in my opinion, don't have a great chance of beating that competition based on skill alone. That being said, Boudreau and McPhee have odd loyalties, and the Caps' third line is the most volatile in terms of roster moves and line changes. The 3LW and 3C roles will be hard to know for sure until training camp, but my bets are on Sjogren and MoJo, respectively, although I think Eakin or Perreault *should* get Johansson's spot.

Coming to the fourth and final line, we all know Jeff Halpern is locked in at 4C. Matt Hendricks had a very strong season, and you can expect him to play wing. I have Chimera in at 4LW solely because I don't think he fits anywhere else, but I think he actually could fit in relatively well in that role. Halpern and Hendricks score a bit more than Gordon and Bradley while bringing comparable faceoff ability and willingness to fight the gloves, respectively. Chimera is a very fast skater, but does not have the best shot. If he plays a bit more physical, the Caps could have a very threatening fourth line in terms of energy, faceoffs, physicality, and scoring. Don't forget that the team still has D.J. King on the payroll, and he proved to be more than adequate at filling that spot the very few times he was called on to play.

This is about what it takes to pay the Capitals this year

The blue line is pretty set, too, as I hinted at earlier. Despite possibly his best season yet, I really do not see Erskine cracking the lineup on a regular basis, probably because "best season yet" still isn't all that good on a top-tier team. Schultz's primary competition will probably be from Orlov, who has spent the past year proving himself capable at moving the puck and knocking guys around. With his $2.75 million cap hit, too, a team struggling to reach the cap floor could be interested in Schultz. Erskine's $1.5 million would help some teams, too. Shedding either of those contracts would further help the Caps by giving them a bit of breathing room in terms of salary cap. Those kind of moves may come after the season starts, though. But Orlov is still young, and would not be hurt by a year with the Bears. Lastly, the goaltending situation is all but set in stone. Vokoun is your starter (as he should be), Neuvirth is your backup (as he should be), and Holtby will get one more year with the Bears (including a year being coached by Kolzig, as he should).

It is very hard to deny that Washington has a very strong roster on paper. I still do not feel all that confident about the season. Boudreau showed himself to be a fairly laughable coach last season. I know he is the winningest coach since the lockout, but let's be honest, with that team it would be pretty hard not to be, unless you have lost the team a la Glen Hanlon. Which is what I expect this year. Boudreau will be coaching a lot of guys that he doesn't know from his time with the Bears. He will have to deal with guys coming from other teams, both successful and otherwise. Ovechkin and Backstrom languished a bit last year while BB tried to figure out how not to get fired. Brouwer has made it clear that he does not want to play the linejumping game, being one of the top reasons he did not want to re-sign with Chicago. The team has made terrible showings in the playoffs. They finally broke the seven-game-per-series trend this year, only to barely play more than seven games total. Add the way that McPhee treated Varly and Fehr in terms of keeping them posted (or even aware) of trade negotiations involving them, and how little he paid Alzner after dragging the process out, and I do not think that team morale will be all that high. Bad morale + bad coaching = bad season. I hope I am wrong, that McPhee's moves will free the scorers up to score while the grinders grind and play responsibly, and the veterans lend their experience and knowledge. Until then, I remain cautiously pessimistic.

Guess which one I am

Looking at the Eric Fehr Trade

2011-07-13T14:23:00.000-04:00

Since my last posting, the Capitals have really only made one big move: trading away Eric Fehr to his hometown team, the old-is-new-again Winnipeg Jets. I have always liked Fehr, and even more so this season living in Pittsburgh. For those of you who have forgotten, Fehr scored two of the three goals for Washington in the Winter Classic. Varlamov was the backstop for that game. Both received high praise for their performances (at least from the room filled with Penguins fans that I was in), and now both are gone. The Varly move has already been looked at, and since there was only one NHL move by the team in the past almost-week, I get to analyze this one a little more. Note: I am not including various moves made in terms of the Hershey Bears. The AHL affiliate has indeed lost several players and picked up several new ones, but I like to focus on the Capitals themselves.

"Why aren't we winning? I've been doing the
same thing for years! It should work, right?"

The team has still failed to resign Karl Alzner, arguably one of the top RFA defensemen in the league, and certainly the team's number one priority since signing Brooks Laich. How this has failed to happen while so many other moves have been made is downright befuddling, if not incredibly frustrating. This has been a major major concern of mine when it comes to McPhee: he has a terrible tendency to place his focus in the wrong spots in hopes of gaining some kind of upper ground over key players, rather than just working with them to create a happy environment for everyone. The team always seems to have their bottom-6 forwards and the 5/6/7/8 defensemen worked out long before any of the top, crucial players. Rather than first focusing signing the stars and necessities, like that second line center or top-4 defenseman or second line winger, and then focusing on the remainder of the roster with the remainder of the cap space, McPhee has repeatedly opted to sign the "lesser" players first, often time to bad contracts. I'm looking at Erskine, Sloan, Neuvirth, Steckel, Poti, and Schultz in terms of just the last two seasons. Sloan has been bought out, Steckel traded. Erskine and Schultz's futures are in some question with the team.

Erskine will likely be the 7th defenseman this year, while Schultz, in large part because of his hefty contract, is possible trade bait. Poti is injured to the brink of retirment, and Neuvirth... well I think everyone knows my thoughts on Neuvirth. McPhee makes these moves, in my humble opinion, for two reasons. First, because these are the sure things; these are the guys who you don't have to haggle with for long and will be more than happy to sign and take one more thing off your checklist. Second, if lowers the amount of cap room, allowing McPhee to say to the bigger name guys "Hey, we only have X amount of money left, and we're a strong Cup contender. We can only afford to give you this much, and I know it's less than you may get on a different team, but they'll be worse, and you won't be as satisfied." While those may seem like logical, even decent reasons, the problem is the team hasn't won when it counts. The players are starting to feel used and played with. Meanwhile, other GMs who do it the other way around have teams that win the Cup: such as the Blackhawks and the Penguins. They address their glaring needs first, then deal with the consequences of winning later.

Why do I rant about McPhee's questionable signing strategies? Because, along with the crazy spending-spree, those strategies played a major factor in trading Eric Fehr. The Caps were over the salary cap as of the official Troy Brouwer contract. Teams are allowed to go 10% over the limit during the offseason, but they must be cap-compliant by the start of the season. Again, the team had not signed Alzner, either. The current cap numbers are a little shifty, mind you, as Washington's cap hit currently includes Jay Beagle's contract, a player who has almost no chance of breaking the roster this year, despite playing a good portion of last season, and does not include any of the players who may make the roster as a result of development and training camps (mainly Eakin, Orlov, Sjogren, and Galiev). Eric Fehr had a cap hit of $2.2 million as a RW who saw limited minutes, usually on the ever-shifting, not-very-productive third line, and has missed many a game over the past two seasons due to shoulder injuries. As of right now, he is not expected to even start the season due to his recovery from his latest bout of shoulder surgery. To a guy like McPhee, he seemed to be the perfect trade bait. The Caps, in return, got a 4th-round pick and a low-level prospect. By low-level I mean he scores the same amount of points Fehr does, but in the ECHL. In other words, the team pretty much got a bag of pucks, which is all McPhee and Boudreau ever seemed to see in Fehr. I present to you my rebuttal of this notion:

Part 1 of my rebuttal: Eff the Pens

Fehr, as I noted, was a third-line RW on Boudreau's Capitals. The first-line RW was Mike Knuble, and the third-line LW was Jason Chimera. Knuble is set to be 40 years old, and has a cap hit of $2.0 million. Chimera is 32, and has a cap hit of $1.875 million. Both of these players are in the last year of their contracts, and will become UFAs. Fehr's contract is also ending, but he will be 26 at the start of the season and an RFA at the end of his contract. Additionally, the guy who likely has taken Fehr's spot is Joel Ward, 30-year old RW getting $3.0 million from Washington for the next four years. McPhee has stated that after the free agency signings, the Capitals had a "glut" of right wingers. By my count, before the Fehr trade, they had four: Knuble, Semin, Fehr, and Ward. He may be counting Troy Brouwer, who can play RW, but prefers LW. He might also be counting Matt Hendricks, who can play any role at forward. But then the team's left wingers are just Ovechkin and Chimera. So I count Brouwer on the LW. Either way, the team has eight wingers, if you include Hendricks. This does not a glut create. Strike 1 for McPhee.

Then you look at the guys with the closest contracts in the closest roles to see who would be better kept on the team than Fehr. To me, that's Knuble and Chimera. Let's see how they stack up. All stats here only include time the players have with the Caps.

	GP	G	P	TOI

Knuble	148	53	93	2577:07
Fehr	230	46	93	2605:35
Chimera	120	17	43	1565:22

One thing here that is immediately apparent is the Chimera is not as productive as Knuble or Fehr. Yes he has played fewer games, and significantly fewer minutes, but he has less than half as many points and more than half as much ice time. Of note, as well, is the Knuble has played arguably the best hockey of his career with the Caps, and that Fehr's numbers include his rookie seasons, such as playing 11 games in 05-06, when he was only 20, and had zero points in 63:13 of ice time. Even still, Fehr has the same number of points as Knuble, including a comparable number of goals, in only 28:28 more total ice time with the Caps. Yes, he has far more games, but he is also getting pretty crappy ice time, and did not have a real spot on the team until 08-09. In fact, if you were to take out that first 11 games, his points total stays the same and he has less ice time with the team than Knuble. Additionally, nearly all of Knuble's time comes on the top line with Ovechkin and Backstrom, both of whom broke 100 points in 09-10, Knuble's first season with the team. Fehr has jumped around the

Well when you put it like that...

lines some, but traditionally has seen his time on the third line, often with Jason Chimera playing opposite him. In short, Fehr is far more productive than Chimera while playing on the same line, and is roughly as productive as Knuble while playing with demonstrably inferior linemates. Fehr is also hitting that age where most players enter their prime in terms of offensive production. A friend of mine here in Pittsburgh asked me after the Winter Classic "Why is that guy not playing on the top line?" I had no answer for him.

Now, of course, a player's value is not measured only in his offensive production, but you also have to look at things like grittiness, physicality, and defensive playing. These don't always show up in the stats, but when they do, they manifest themselves in things like hits and blocked shots. Joel Ward was brought in this year because he is perceived to be a defensive forward that can bring his game up in the playoffs. Granted, this is based off of only this year's playoffs, and not the previous year's first round exit where he had four points in six games. I have also never really watched the guy play. What I have done is looked at NHL.com and pulled up his stats. Based on stats alone, I don't see where he earns $3 million from a team like Washington, especially when they had a guy like Fehr on the squad. Here are their stats from 2010-2011:

	TOI	GP	HITS	BS	PP TOI	SH TOI	PPP

Ward	1,365:48	80	67	57	120:18:00	150:33:00	5
Fehr	654:39:00	52	34	20	101:36:00	0:00	7

I can't say this looks totally legal,
but I can say it looks totally awesome

Now looking at Ward vs. Fehr, I try to see where Fehr was deficient that Ward is able to get a long term contract for more money and take his spot on the roster. In terms of hits, Fehr had roughly 3.116 hits per sixty minutes to Ward's 2.943. This number actually surprised me. I never thought of Fehr as a particularly physical player, especially given his shoulder injuries, but it looks like he is at least as much of a hitter as Ward is. Take this with a grain of salt, though, as it is the home teams' stat-keepers that determine hits, and it is a very subjective, fluctuating stat. Looking at blocked shots, Fehr blocks about 1.833 shots per sixty minutes while Ward blocks roughly 2.504. There is a pretty significant difference there. Remember, we're talking about forwards, not defensemen. However, Ward spent 150:33 minutes killing penalties, while Fehr was not used for that job even once last season. The PK is a time when everyone, including forwards, are called to block shots. On the PK, you're playing a man down and facing, in theory, a lot more shots than you would during two minutes of even strength. Given Ward's ice time on the PK, it is not surprising that he has a good number more blocked shots than Fehr. I am sure the research is out there for how many Ward blocked at even strength and on the powerplay so that I could get a more reasonable comparison, but I don't know where to get those numbers.

Speaking of the powerplay, though, notice that Fehr has seven points on the PP in nearly 19 minutes less ice time than Ward, who scored five points, although they were all goals. Another important distinction is that Ward had the second most ice time per game on the Predators last season, behind only center Mike Fisher. As for points in 10-11, Fehr had 10-10-20 to Ward's 10-19-29. Same amount of goals, less assists, 28 fewer games and with far less ice time.

Now, I understand that Eric Fehr has been injured a decent amount. He has some shoulder issues. He is also young and has one year remaining on his contract. His trade, even with taking Poti off the cap due to retirement or long-term injury reserve, may not be enough to sign Alzner. McPhee has still failed to come to an agreement with Alzner's agent over the course of the season, after all. As far as I can tell, Fehr was replaced with an older, somewhat worse player for more money, while older, comparable or worse wingers were also on the team with only slightly smaller contracts. I see no reason for the team to have ever signed Ward in the first place and put the Capitals in the position they are now in, and were in when they decided to move Fehr. Oh, and they never warned him that he was going to be traded, let alone shopped around.

If you ask me, Fehr should have been on the Caps this year, and playing on the top line. Knuble is 40, people. He isn't exactly the future of the squad on the top line. He's been a great complement to Ovi and Backstrom, but Fehr is putting up the same numbers and is 14 years younger. Watch him rehabilitate over the summer and fall, and get decent ice time with Winnipeg. You'll see what I'm talking about. Same as with Varlamov and Fleischmann. Good luck to those guys. Good luck to the Caps, too, but I think I'd rather see some shift in management and coaching. I open this debate up to the interwebs: Should the team have traded Fehr? Do you think he will play a full, healthy season after returning from his latest shoulder surgery? Who will take over for Knuble if and when he becomes an irrelevant player? Why does Ward get $3 million and Fehr gets traded due to cap issues? I have not understood what McPhee is thinking much of this off-season, so if somebody out there can spell it out for me, please, comment on the article. In the meantime, so long F16, you will be sorely missed.

I know, Bruce. I know.

Thoughts on Caps Free Agency Week 1

2011-07-06T15:57:00.010-04:00

Well, I tried to get a post up about the (then) upcoming UFA's for the Capitals a week before July 1st, but an error with Blogger/Firefox/CapGeek/my keyboard/my twitchy fingers deleted an entire post that took several hours to research and write, when I had one measly sentence left. Le sigh. So now we are at the end of the first week of free agency, and for Washington it has been pretty busy. For those who have paid any attention to me on Twitter or Facebook, you know the gist of how I felt on Day 1. But there is more to it, so here you go:

Brooks Laich (C, LW): 6 years, $27 million, avg. 4.5 per year

I dare you to stare deep into his eyes and sign him for less

Occurring prior to July 1, this is, in my opinion, a great signing. Laich is hitting his prime, and was a pending UFA. Widely regarded as the second best UFA forward behind Brad Richards, Laich was going to command a hefty salary on the open market. If he took a hometown discount, which does not seem likely, it was slight. For the demand out there, that is just how it had to play out. But now the Caps have one of the best, most consistent, and hardest-working two way forwards locked up on a team he loves and that loves him. He may not honestly be worth $4.5 a year, but given the scenario and market, this is about as good as it could have been.

Jeff Halpern (C): 1 year, $825k

Hopefully Bondra comes back, too. Just not that jersey.

The first signing on July 1, this was a great move. While Boyd Gordon had a solid year and was the longest tenured player on Washington, he was able to command a raise from other teams lacking depth. A raise that the Caps (rightfully) were not comfortable giving him. Halpern's contract is a mere 25,000 more than Gordon's last year, while Halpern put up far far superior numbers offensively. Not to mention his history with the team, being from Potomac and all. Oh yeah, and he used to be the Caps' captain. Excellent signing.

Semyon Varlamov (G): Traded to Colorado for Avs 2012 1st round and either Boston's 2012 2nd round or Avs 2013 2nd round picks

The Capitals made huge news with their two goalie-related maneuvers. This was the first, coming shortly after the Halpern signing. Colorado finished as one of the worst teams in the league, largely due to abysmal goaltending. Varlamov was an RFA who cared little about term or money, but demanded a guarantee that he would be the Capitals' starting goalie for 2011-2012. Despite a GAA and SV% that, combined, statistically put him behind only the three Vezina finalists out of all goalies who played more than 25 games, McPhee and Boudreau refused to give in to this demand, saying that he could contend for the starting gig with Neuvirth and Holtby. Same as he had in 2010-2011, same as he had in 2009-2010 with Theodore and Neuvirth. Same as he had in 2008-2009 with Theodore.

Good times... good times. Best of luck in Colorado.

Feeling defeated and furious, Varlamov seriously entertained the idea of leaving for the KHL, a move that would guarantee a good paycheck and a starting gig, but one that would ruin his reputation in the NHL, where he truly wanted to play. Despite earlier assurances to the contrary, McPhee announced the trade with Colorado. Many viewed it as an absolute fleecing, as the Avs likely could have come at Varlamov with an offer sheet for the amount they would end up signing him for (3 years, $8.5 million, avg. 2,833,333) and would only have had to part with their 2nd round pick when the Capitals inevitably opted not to match. My opinion of all this? Varlamov is one of the best goalies in the league. He is young, highly skilled, still approaching his prime,is fiercely competitive and extremely confident. I believe this trade will be one that haunts the team for some time, and that Varlamov will be a Vezina contender this season. Fears about his health are somewhat founded, as he has been injured for portions of each of the past three seasons. Unlike forwards or defenseman, however, even the best starting goalies are by no means expected to approach anywhere near 82 starts in a season. Varlamov was available to start 50+ games in 2010-2011, easily enough to establish himself as the starter. So even if Varly is injured for 30 games a season (which he won't be), he is still healthy for enough games to be his team's starter and more than capable of earning 30 wins a season. The Avalanche get this for unknown, unproven players that may or may not ever play in an NHL game for Washington. 90% of people think the Caps made out like bandits, but I am firmly on Team Varly, and think Colorado made the right move.

Tomas Vokoun (G): 1 year, $1.5 million

Sliiiiiide to the left. Two hops this time!

Vokoun is widely considered to be one of the best goalies in the game, consistently putting up top-10 numbers on bottom-5 teams. Three straight years with a SV% of .920 or better on the Panthers? Pretty damn good, I have to admit. I like him a lot more than Neuvirth... but not nearly as much as I would have liked Varly. Add to that the fact that Vokoun has minimal playoff experience and mediocre-at-best numbers in March and beyond over the course of his career, and you can color me hesitant to hop on the "Holy crap that's awesome!" bandwagon that the hockey media has started. Given the Varly move, though, this was easily the best move the team could have made, and at a great price. It likely
will also give Holtby (or Neuvirth?) more time in the AHL to develop his skills even better, and groom him for the starting job next season.

Joel Ward (RW): 4 years, $12 million, avg. 3 per year

While Ward is thinking "I Believe I Can Fly"
his teammates are thinking "Thriller"

Ward just came off a Nashville team that made it past the first round of the playoffs for the first time in team history, and he was a major part of that, scoring at just over a point-per-game pace (13 points in 12 games), including seven goals. That nearly matched his season total of 10 goals. With that in mind, I am thoroughly unimpressed by this move. The Capitals already have a glut of wingers, and ones who can score more than 10 a year. Ward's regular season numbers have steadily decreased over the last three years. McPhee supposedly signed Ward because he is serious about playoff success. I am by no means impressed by a winger who had what appears to be one fluky/opportunistic year in the playoffs after coming off a weak regular season. I am also not interested in wingers who haven't made it past the second round. The Caps have more than enough of those kinds of players. Ward, to me, is the epitome of redundancy. And at $3 million a year, he is getting paid more than Knuble, Fehr, Chimera, and Hendricks, with the same or less experience in the playoffs and worse offensive numbers during the year. Supposedly he is gritty, but with 67 hits and 57 blocked shots in 80 games to accompany his 6.8% shooting percentage, I don't see the grittiness. Ward may be half-decent, but he is largely getting this contract on the hopes that he can replicate one year's playoff success. Keep in mind, he was 2-2-4 in six playoff games the year before. Much like Max Talbot on the Penguins (now Flyers), there is a lot of focus and value likely misplaced on what was probably only being in the right place at the right time. I don't like this at all.

Troy Brouwer (LW/RW): Acquired RFA rights from Chicago on Draft Day for Caps' 1st round pick, signed 2 years, $4.7 million, avg. 2.35 per year

This is a bit misleading: Brouwer actually went to shake his hand, but
Bieksa thought he could draw a penalty anyway, as is of course tradition

Faced with what seemed to be a weak draft year and a dire need to address team issues, McPhee traded the Capitals' first round pick to Chicago for the rights to Troy Brouwer. Brouwer was set to become an RFA with arbitration rights on July 1, and Chicago needed to clear yet more cap space. As of today, Brouwer has signed with the team for a two-year deal. The winger was fifth in the league in hits last year and played on the Blackhawks' Stanley Cup team the year prior. He appears to be what the team needs: a gritty, hard-hitting player with Cup-winning experience and a slight scoring touch. He is capable of scoring 20 goals and about 40 points a year, even when cycling between lines and linemates and knocking around the other team. This could turn out to be a great deal for the Caps, but it will very largely depend on how Boudreau (or whoever is coach by season's end) handles the team. Brouwer has expressed resentment toward the Blackhawks coaching staff and management for the way they handled lineups and player contracts, respectively. The Capitals are currently in a position to have very serious issues with the salary cap, and Boudreau is (in)famous for constantly changing lines during the ~~play~~ game/season. Brouwer wants to win a Cup again with a team that gives him a consistent spot with consistent teammates. He has also stated that he feels more comfortable playing left wing rather than right, although he is capable of playing both. Contrast that with the talk of the town that pictures him regularly cycling between the second and third lines, typically on the right side, and I start to see a picture being painted. That picture is of a player who feels disrespected and loses his competitive edge when he leaves a bad scenario and ends up in the exact same position. Only time will tell, though.

Roman Hamrlik (D): 2 years, $7 million, avg. 3.5 per year

Hopefully he doesn't kill the
Caps' hopes of a Cup again this year

Hamrlik is a solid, veteran defenseman. Heavy on the veteran: he will be 40 by the time his two year contract ends. Despite his age, he was a great combination of shutdown and puck-moving styles for Montreal over the last four years. He will be a great mentor for the Caps young-ish blue line. Green, Carlson, Schultz, and Alzner (hopefully?) all have a lot to learn, still, and the team would be hard pressed to find a better teacher than Hamrlik in this year's free agent pool. His contract reflects these intangibles at least as much as his skill, and his addition to the team makes the Capitals an even more formidable defensive opponent. He is probably still being paid a bit much for his age, but McPhee is taking what even I think is a justified gamble on the long-term benefits that will be reflected in the younger guys' play for years to come.

Next up: my thoughts on the roster/lines for the 2011-2012 season.

A Look At (And My Thoughts On) Restricted Free Agency

2011-06-08T13:48:00.001-04:00

Well, it's been a while. The Caps flamed out, again. To the same team that the Pens lost to, again. So it was harder for the Pittsburgh fans to talk smack this year, but any would we well-deserved. Washington finished tops in the Eastern Conference, had a winning record against the Lightning, and had just come off a solid series win against arguably their toughest opponent from the regular season. To be swept was absolutely embarrassing and pathetic, and the team absolutely has to make changes.

While I think that should include changes behind the bench, that is an argument that appears to have fallen on the deaf, cold ears of George McPhee. So instead we look to the roster. Even with the strong possibility of raising the cap level, there will not be enough to go around to pay everyone on the team the same money as they made this year. Some guys will have to go, some will have to take cuts, and some absolutely earned raises. With the free agency deadline coming on on July 1, it is time to make some of those hard decisions. It is on this date that players known as Restricted Free Agents become Unrestricted Free Agents, and that all teams are able to sign UFAs. Until this date, only a player's current team can make negotiations with RFAs. Occasionally, the "rights" to a player are traded away, as was the case yesterday with Bryzgalov. The Caps only have two and a half such players, so without further ado...

Caps RFAs:
Semyon Varalamov: 2009-2010 contract: Entry-level, $821,667 including bonuses
Karl Alzner: 2009-2010 contract: Entry-level, $1,675,000 including bonuses
Mathieu Perreault: 2009-2010 contract: Entry-level, $716,667 including bonuses

We'll start with these two. First, the easy one: Alzner. This kid is an absolute no-brainer must-sign. The defensive pair of Alzner and Carlson was one of the best in the league, despite also being one of the youngest. With Mike Green on the team, the Caps would have the enviable position of possessing no fewer than three top-pairing defensemen. Alzner has more than established himself as a top-notch defensive defenseman who is responsible in his end and will not be a liability in terms of taking penalties. He had the occasional hiccup this year, and it was evident in the playoffs that he is still barely out of his rookie status, but with this year's experiences, he will only be better. Expect him to ask for, and get, $3 - 3.5 million. That would put his contract above Schultz and Poti, although Poti received $3.5 mil for this latest season. If Schultz, another defensive defenseman, earns just under $3 mil, then Alzner and his superior skills will demand at least that. McPhee, and Alzner, will have to mind the salary cap issues, so I would be surprised to even see $3.5 mil, and even a $3 mil contract puts the team in a tough situation with everyone else. Like it or not, though, this is the must-sign contract for the team. Expect four or five years on this one. They may backload the contract so that Alzner earns more later, but I don't see how you go about it any other way.

It's great because he doubles as the mascot.

Now to the tricky case of Varlamov. The Caps, as you may have heard, have three young goaltenders: Valry, Michal Neuvirth, and Braden Holtby. Varlamov has the unfortunate stigma of being injury prone, but that is coupled with outstanding skill in the net when he is healthy. Case in point: Varlamov finished fourth in the league this season in both GAA and SV%, when you look at goalies with a significant amount of games. Holtby, for example, had even better numbers, but only played in 14 games. Back to the unfortunate side of things, Varlamov's stellar numbers actually translated into a losing record, as the guys in front of him were offensively impotent for much of the season. Neuvirth, on the other hand, was the team's starter while Varlamov continuously hurt himself, and barely finished in the top-30 in all categories aside from wins, where he greatly benefited from stronger offensive outings. Neuvy has a contract extension worth $1.15 mil for each of the next two seasons. While this was signed before the season was over, this is the number that Varly, his agent, and the Caps have to look at. In the wake of last year's Niemi vs. Blackhawks dealings, and the success of young, unknown goalies as of late, goalie contracts just will not command what they once did. So ignore Varly's skills and playoff strengths. I say the Caps should resign him for one year at $1.25 million. This gives him one last chance to get and stay healthy, and the contract is not enough to accurately reflect his skills, but it is more than Neuvirth's.

Another option floating around the interwebs is to trade the rights to Varlamov to a team in more dire need of top-notch goaltending. Let another team haggle a contract and keep him away from the KHL, and get something in return. Maybe throw in a pick or a player and pick up a solid center. You will not hear me saying that nonsense. I am quite possibly the biggest naysayer in regards to Neuvirth. If you would trade away Varly, I say trade Neuvirth instead. Neuvirth posted the worst numbers of the three goaltenders. He absolutely choked in the Tampa Bay series. I do not know what goaltender people were watching this season when they talk about ice-cold blood and consistency, but that describes Varly far better than Neuvirth. Michal was streaky all year. He would be unstoppable for a while, then have several games with three or more goals against, then back to good, then unbearable to watch, etc. But Boudreau made the decision that this was the team's starter.

Yeah, that happened.

Living in Pittsburgh, I do watch a good bit of Pens hockey and follow their trials and tribulations. I may get crap for this, but Bylsma makes Boudreau look like the minor league coach that he truly is. For that matter, Therrien did, too. The Pens may not have won much against the Caps during the regular season, but they sure know how to handle injured players and roster moves better (save for not playing Tangredi in Game 7 against the Lightning... I would much rather have faced the Pens than the Bolts. Curse you Bylsma!). When Marc-Andre Fleury was injured during the 2007-2008 season, Ty Conklin came in and posted a record of 17-6-5 and led the league in save percentage. He was a monster. When Fleury again was injured or just simply lost confidence this past season, former Caps backup goalie Brent Johnson stepped in and posted stellar numbers. Only the foolish called for Fleury to be demoted to backup. A team has to go with their best player. Varlamov, without (serious) question, is the more skilled goalie. He has better numbers, and has them more consistently. It is a rare game where he allows more than three goals, and really a relatively uncommon when he allows more than two. Neuvirth should have been relegated to backup once Varly got healthy, because that is where he should fall on the depth chart, same as Conklin, same as Johnson.

"For godsakes, not in the face!"
Evidence of those ice-cold veins, I guess.

So. I say trade Neuvirth. He is riding high on this past season, people think he is amazing (except for me and Bylsma, just watch the HBO special if you don't know what I mean), and he is cheap. The Caps, in my opinion, should group Neuvirth with Chimera (more on him in one my next two posts) and a draft pick or prospect in a trade with another team. I don't even know or care what for. But it would get a big return, move some cap space and a redundant winger, and force the team into naming their starter. Granted, nobody else out there is saying this, at least not that I have seen. But that just means they are wrong. Remember those are the same people who thought the Caps would beat the Lightning, would beat the Canadiens last year, would beat the Pens after being up 2-0 in the series. They were all wrong. You can trust me and my cynicism more than you can trust those idiots. That being said.... Varly will be gone to the KHL or Winnipeg when all is said and done, because this is a team and organization that cannot understand handling goaltenders not named Olaf Kolzig. And really, Boudreau didn't even know how to handle Olie.

Finally, Perreault. What can I say, I have always been high on this kid. I still think he is a better player than Johansson is, nothing can convince me otherwise. Not reciting the stats (which nearly all favor Perreault, actually: better points per game, better faceoffs, better percentage of starts finished in the offensive zone, better plus-minus per game...), not simply saying over and over and over again that MoJo is "better defensively" without a single shred of evidence to back up the statement other than his scouting report and your wishes that he is in fact better defensively, or even offensively. Honestly, not much more makes me more upset than seeing Johansson wearing a Caps sweater and Perreault wearing a Hershey one. I just do not see why. The knocks on MP85 are that he is streaky and takes too many penalties. Personally, I'd rather have a streaky, speedy kid who takes the occasional penalty than one who is more consistent in his non-scoring and is on ice for more goals against than for in a typical game. But I'm just crazy. That being said, Perreault will have to earn the league minimum in order to stay with the Caps. I would of course like to see him get that, and for two or three years, but I expect either a one-year deal at the league minimum or no deal at all. For his sake, I hope it's the latter. Another team would grab him in a heartbeat, give him a real shot with a consistent line, and he'd make McPhee and Boudreau look foolish, much like Fleischmann did before he nearly died.

That is all for now. Next up: UFAs.

Quick Caps-Bolts Game 4 Preview

2011-05-04T18:03:00.000-04:00

Green is doubtful, Fehr is probably out, and Boudreau has stated that he does not plan on plan on changing goalies. The Caps are down 3-0 against an indisputably lesser team, and Coach does not want to answer questions about his job. Nothing bodes well. In NHL history, only four teams have come back from a 3-0 deficit to win the series. Last year's Flyers did it against the Bruins, so that possibility may seem plausible... but it is not. The Caps' locker room might as well read "Abandon all hope ye who enter here." We've all been down this road before, some longer than others. Some, like my father, for the past 35 years, since the team's inception.

With the strong possibility of Neuvirth in net and an AHL defenseman replacing one of the league's best, combined with what appears to be near constant ineptitude on the ice and behind the bench, I will not allow myself to dream a little dream and be crushed again. My prediction: Caps lose 3-0, Laich gets injured, Semin doesn't play the third period, and the team doesn't reach 25 shots on net. Your three stars: (3) Roloson (2) Stamkos (1) St. Louis.

After tonight, Bruce Boudreau will likely join about a tenth of the country in being unemployed. Fans will feel pain. Some for a while, some for a day or two. NBC execs will smash computers and scream "Never tell me the odds" while some pencil pusher continues to rattle off the odds that any money will be made on either the conference or Stanley Cup finals (May the Fourth be With You). And we will look to next year. Again.

Caps-Bolts Game 3/Goal 4 Recap

2011-05-03T23:14:00.000-04:00

The Caps managed to pull defeat from the jaws of victory yet again, this time in Tampa. They scored the first goal, except that Semin was an eager beaver and the team was called for too many men on the ice, nullifying the goal. Then Tampa turned around to score the first real goal and took the lead into the second period despite being badly outshot, again. Someone lit a fire in the locker room, because Washington stormed out and tied the game early in the second, and then someone put the fire out as the quickly allowed the tying goal. With a fortuitous 5-on-3, the good guys finally capitalized on the power play, with who else but Ovechkin knotting the go-ahead goal late in the third, and the team was able to take their own lead into the third period. A little more than five minutes in, Stamkos put in another tying goal. Then, only 24 seconds later, Ryan Malone "scored" what would be the game-winner. Here is what it looked like:

The goal was under review to determine if there was a distinct kicking motion. I am of the mind that it never should have gotten that far, because of NHL Rule 69: Interference of the Goalkeeper. This is a rule that has to be blown on the play, and is not reviewable. Once the goal was called, the point became moot. Rule 69 states that an attacking player who initiates contact from outside the crease has to make a reasonable effort to avoid such contact. Malone skated straight into the net. "For purposes of this rule, “contact,” whether incidental or otherwise, shall mean any contact that is made between or among a goalkeeper and attacking player(s), whether by means of a stick or any part of the body." Malone has his skate on Neuvirth's leg, as you can see above. "If a defending player has been pushed, shoved, or fouled by an attacking player so as to cause the defending player to come into contact with his own goalkeeper, such contact shall be deemed contact initiated by the attacking player for purposes of this rule, and if necessary a penalty assessed to the attacking player and if a goal is scored it would be disallowed." You can see Malone's shoulder and arm are firmly planted in Carlson's side. Carlson, a victim of the laws of physics, would continue on into Neuvirth, knocking him away from the puck as it slid past his leg and into the net. Malone made no attempt to avoid Neuvirth, came into contact with him, and caused Carlson to collide with his goalie, and it all resulted in a goal. Under the language of Rule 69, it should have been blown dead on the ice.

The Caps screwed themselves with the first goal of the game, but got bent over on this one. This should have been a win for Washington, but between team and coaching idiocy (Keith Jones of Versus said after the first period that Boudreau had a brain cramp when he decided to sit Ovechkin for a 4-on-4, despite Ovi leading the league in 4-on-4 goals) and the pivotal no-call in the third, the Lightning got the win. They deserve it for doing things right and their play certainly earned the win, but that doesn't mean that the Capitals should have lost, either. To make matters worse, both Mike Green and Eric Fehr were injured in the game, and it would be a surprise to see either of them in the game tomorrow night. Five thoughts:

Leading into this game, so many analysts were saying Ovechkin needed to do more aside from leading the team in points. How does scoring a go-ahead goal, adding an assist, and dishing out four hits to accompany his five shots sound?
Piggybacking on that, the rest of the team needs to get their S together. Eleven separate players on Tampa had one point each, and only two were -1 players. The Caps had seven players with a point, including both of Ovi's, and only two were +1 players. This tells us that the whole team on Tampa is chipping in offensively and doing their parts on defense, while only about a third of the Caps are doing their part at either end of the ice.
Say what you will, but when a goalie allows three or more goals in three straight playoff games, a lot of it is on him. This is a team sport, and team play does dictate a lot of what does and does not go into the net. But forgive me for looking to the goalie after three straight games with less than a .900 sv% and more 3+ goals each time. I have made my allegiance no secret, and I went into this in detail early on... so I will say I told you so: Neuvirth is a marginally better version of Theodore, and Varlamov should have been in net this whole time. This is precisely the play I predicted. He played very well against the Rangers, but that was him playing above his ability.
Johansson started on the second line tonight, and as we saw all throughout the regular season, the Laich-MJ90-Semin line does not click: they all ended -2 and combined for two assists: Semin got the primary assist on Ovi's goal and Johansson got a secondary helper on Carlson's. Johansson ended the night on the Luis Mendoza line with Chimera and Sturm, which is where he belongs and has seen the most success. I don't think we will have to wonder what is going through Boudreau's mind when he makes these lines much longer, though.
The Lightning are a team that, traditionally, the Capitals have had no problem dispatching, especially under Boudreau. They are missing one of their top offensive players and one of their top defensemen. Yet they are up 3-0 against the top seed in the conference and the winner of their division. My final thought for the game? Kudos to Guy Boucher for doing a hell of a job coaching these guys, and to their players for playing the Caps' weaknesses and strengths like a familiar song. Even though Washington should win the series based on skill and depth, it's the intelligence of the coaching staff and strong play of the Bolts that got them here, and they deserve the credit.

Of course, we're all starting to get used to these kinds of calls and almost expect them at crucial moments. I'm sure many Caps fans remember this from last year's playoffs, a pivotal no-goal in Game 7:

And We're Back: Tampa Series Preview/Recap

2011-05-03T18:14:00.011-04:00

So I've learned that you have to stay motivated to write on these here blogospheres. It was no problem when I was mad, when I had something to rail against and about, but once the boys in red started winning and put away their season's most troublesome opponent in five games, I found it hard to write anything that I felt wasn't being written by every other professional and non-professional hockey writer in the country. So I opted not to. But now the Caps are down 2-0, and I am pissed. Annnnnnnnnd we're back:

The Capitals got things done in the Rangers series. They converted on the powerplay, got offensive support from their third liners, superb penalty killing team-wide, and great goaltending from Neuvirth. Perhaps most importantly, but least publicized, the lines stayed almost constant throughout the series, at least until Knuble was injured.


Oh hai there, puck. Sorry, I can't let you in tonight.

Then Tampa Bay came to town and Boudreau panicked. The lines were a-jumble. Eric Fehr scored a goal in his second game, and was kept on the third line. The top line has only kept Ovechkin as a constant, with Chimera and Laich filling in for Knuble at times, and Johnasson filling in for Backstrom last game. Marco Sturm played on the second line for six straight games before being demoted to the fourth line in Round 2 Game 2, despite having only two assists through those six games. That may not sound too bad because they were tight series, but each of his standard linemates, Arnott and Semin, had several more points and were involved in some of the most pivotal plays of the first series.

Johansson by far benefited the most from Boudreau's panic and odd ideas on which players should get his praise and which get to kiss his fat ice cream filled behind. Normally playing center on the third line, he has seen some of the top minutes on the team. In addition to his even strength duties, MoJo gets top minutes on both the powerplay and the penalty kill. In fact, in the first game against the Lightning, the only player to get more shorthanded time than Johansson was Scott Hannan. Here's the thing: Johansson is a rookie. Not even a top-tier rookie. He was at no point during the season anywhere near Calder Cup conversations, did not show up on the scoresheet with astounding frequency, and did not have ANY experience playing North American style hockey prior to his NHL career. While he has shown up in clutch moments over the past two months, is this really the player the team needs to throw so much of their burden upon? Is he really a clutch, go-to player, or is that just the result of the minutes in which Boudreau is playing him? What is this world where this rookie is getting more crucial minutes than Nicklas Backstrom, Jason Arnott, Eric Fehr, and Mike Knuble?

Of course these losses cannot be blamed on Johansson, and I do not mean to insinuate as such. I bring him up as an example of Boudreau's miscues. Here is a coach with some of the top players in the league on both offense and defense, an oh-so-very deep depth chart, and a well of great Hershey Bears players to call upon in an emergency. Yet instead of keeping lines that are tried and true and tend to show up in successful games, and relying on his veteran players, Boudreau goes for the unconventional in hopes of finding some magical combination that will score 100 goals and allow none. (See my first post of April and this similar article from a more respected Caps blogger)

Tonight, it seems he is sticking with Neuvirth in net, a decision I do not completely agree with but really cannot fault, either. Of further note is that Johansson is playing second line center (a position at which he was a near-failure for the majority of the season) with Arnott getting demoted to the third line. This is the kind of crap that gets a team to lose. We saw it against Montreal last year at the end of the series; players getting mixed up on assignments and looking lost and uncomfortable with the constantly shifting duties and linemates. Arnott has been an absolute stud on the second line with Semin and Laich. It is an insult to lessen his duties in the playoffs. Arnott was brought in for three reasons: to fill in the 2C void, to provide leadership, and for his vast playoff experience. Granted, these lines and more will change during the course of the game, but it is all in vain. Those who follow the team know which lines work, which players work, and are all baffled by what we

Well at least he sees the puck

see on the ice. Sturm is still in the lineup, but playing a role he is not suited for. If he is not going to see time on the second or third lines because of his play, then he should sit. Just because Hendricks makes less money does not mean he deserves a spot in the press box. Boudreau is showing why he is losing the respect of fans across the country and the trust and support of Washington's faithful, and if (when?) the Caps lose this series, not many tears will be shed when (if?) he loses his job.

After all that, here is my preview for tonight: Caps lose, 5-2. Roloson is hot, and Neuvirth is reverting to the style of play that made me wish he was trade bait, with every shot not deflected in by a teammate seemingly going in over his left shoulder. Neuvirth still continues with his failure to close off the post, especially the top corners of the net, as a result of his low stance. The Lightning seem to have caught on to this, and have capitalized on the opening. One need only look at Game 2 to see the fruits of this knowledge, with both the powerplay goal and the OT game-winner ending in the same spot of the net, but from two completely different spots of the ice. The other goal, of course, came off a bad bounce off Mike Green's skate, but even that was the result of the Bolts getting pucks to the front of the net and aiming for that top right shelf - the pass in front of the net was meant to end with a shot on that right side of the net.

The Caps' powerplay has become inept once again, going 0-11 in the first two games despite (surprise!) countless different line combos. The lines are constantly changing, but luckily the team has gone to lines we've seen before...in December. The Bolts are at home, and even though they are again missing Gagne and Kubina, that didn't stop them from making the Capitals look almost second-rate at the phone booth. Your three stars for the night: (3) Hedman (2) Lecavalier (1) Stamkos

Does Bruce Boudreau have to smack a bitch?

Brief Game 5 Recap

2011-04-23T23:20:00.000-04:00

They actually did it, they finished a series in under seven games. For now the Caps can take a breather and watch how things play out Easter Sunday before they gear up for another series. Five thoughts:

Told you that line of Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Laich would produce a bit of magic. Ovi and Laich led the game with two points apiece, a goal and an assist for the captain and two helpers for Laich.
After blocking yet another shot with his ear, Green is reportedly fine. Good to hear, since he was the only player on the team to have a point in every game of the series, ending it with a goal and four assists. Not too shabby for a guy who missed 26 out of 28 games leading up to the playoffs.
Fehr play a non-injured team low 10:16 in minutes, including 1:58 on the powerplay. I don't know what he did to get on Boudreau's S-list, but it must have been bad. Maybe he got the Verizon Center's ice cream vendors to stop serving Bruce.
Another big-hitting game, with the Rangers barely edging out the Capitals 32-31 in the game. This was quite the rough and tumble series. Luckily everyone has some time to recover. The Caps get a few days rest before they play their next series, and Avery and the Rangers will get some sun and fresh air out on the links.
Last thought? Enjoy your Easter Sunday and Monday!

Uber-Quick Game 5 Preview

2011-04-23T14:58:00.000-04:00

Caps are up in the series 3-1. They were in this situation a year ago, and we all remember how that ended. Unless you were able to repress that, in which case kudos to you. Under Boudreau, the Capitals have never finished a series, win or lose, in less than seven games, despite being the higher seed in every single series. They have the chance to do so today, to beat the Rangers in five games, to get one of many loud screaming monkeys off their backs.

I actually think they can do it. With Knuble still out, expect more line changes. There is a good chance Laich will move up to the top line, and this should produce some magic. I'm expecting a high scoring game for the home crowd. The hard hits will continue, and oh yes, there will be blood. 6-3, Red over Blue.

Game 4 Recap

2011-04-21T00:08:00.000-04:00

Dirty. That is the only word that can describe this game, and I mean that in the absolute best way possible. As my good friend told me when the score was 3-2:

"You are not allowed to be happy. I've learned that when you're

pessimistic, we win. I demand you to proclaim you expect a letdown."

On a side note, I've learned that same theory applies to me and the dice tables. If you're ever with me and it is my first roll, bet heavily on craps. My pregame prediction was close, but Ovi and Fehr gave us no goals (although Fehr was tied for a team-high +3 with Johansson). The Capitals will continue their struggle to find discipline and not test out the amazing penalty killers, but they got a win and are up 3-1, handing a loss to a Rangers team that had not lost all season when leading after two periods. Five thoughts on the game

As I said, dirty. Dirty goals are what wins against guys like Lundqvist, those goalies who can single-handedly steal an entire series let alone a game. Semin not quitting, Johansson being in the right place for a lucky bounce, Carlson railing a shot off MoJo, and Chimera sticking around behind King Henrik hoping for a bit of luck: dirty, and at the same time beautiful hockey. The same can be said for the Rangers. This is a rough series, and the players have all bought into the notion that no puck is dead until it is in the net.
A new take on the old "How many
hockey players can you fit into a Geo Metro?"
(Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
Speaking of Semin's goal, that's a fantastic job by the ref. There is a reason these guys have to prove themselves to earn a spot in the playoffs, too. No TV camera angle was going to see that Lundqvist never actually covered or had control of the puck, only a human ref staring at the puck would be able to tell that quickly.
Carlson and Alzner: what happened to these guys? They're young, I know. They're being tasked with shutting down the top players, I know. But Carlson in particular is showing some rookie mistakes, Alzner is not always making the right decisions, either, and that is new territory for both of them. If the kids can shake it off and bounce back strong for Game 5 in front of what is sure to be one of the greatest crowds in their young careers, I would hate to be in their way. At the same time, they do have to step up their game. Two of my favorite players, and two guys I hope will be with this team for as long as possible.
Another day of deucing on Chimera, another game-winning goal. He definitely showed he has no business being on the top line, with none of those guys getting points and being on ice for a couple goals against, but he came out with grit again, and it earned the team a win. I may not like it, but he is producing. The same cannot be said for Marco Sturm, who after four games is pointless and a +1 (which he earned in tonight's game). This despite playing (inexplicably) on the second line with Arnott and Semin, who each have three points in this uber-tight series. If Knuble comes back healthy, Sturm is my pick to ride the pine. Fehr put up a hell of an effort tonight, and while he may not have showed up on the score sheet like I hoped, people knew he was on the ice.
Both goalies deserve a lot of respect and will need the rest. The Caps took 53 shots to the Rangers' 39, with both goaltenders putting up better than a 92% save percentage through 92 minutes and 36 seconds of game time. Through nearly five full games worth of ice time in only four games, Neuvirth has a save percentage of 94.2% to best Lundqvist's 92.2%.

Saturday at 3:00 is your next chance to rock the red. If I can do it here in Pittsburgh, then you can do it wherever you are. Huge game, huge opportunity for the Caps to win only their second series out of five chances with Boudreau, and the first one to go less than seven games. And now your game highlights:

Quick Game 4 Preview, or Why Boudreau Makes Me See Red

2011-04-20T18:23:00.000-04:00

First off, I know I'm not crazy. Second, I'm pretty sure Boudreau is. Despite what some may be saying, quotes from Caps players (see the second link) indicate that Knuble probably will not be in the lineup tonight. This almost certainly means that Fehr will finally see ice time. Going back to my previous posts and the first link in this post, it would seem logical that Fehr, a right winger who creates and capitalizes on chances, would slide into Knuble's spot on the top line. Maybe Semin, a right winger with superstar skills, would move up from the second line and Fehr would fit into his spot. If nothing else, a right winger would take Knuble's spot on the top line, seeing as that spot is in fact at right wing.

Boudreau, ever playing mind games, must wake up each morning and say to himself "Chimera is awesome. Chimera is awesome. Chimera is awesome." How else would you explain Chimera, a left-wing grinder, a guy whose best in-game attribute is "grit," being moved to fill Knuble's roll on the top line? At various points throughout the season, Chimera was on the top line. There were times when the line clicked, but more often than not Chimera over-skated a play, or misread a pass, or otherwise looked uncomfortable and out of place playing with Ovi and Backstrom. Their skills are not matched up for offensive success, something this team desperately needs against the Rangers. Ovi-Backstrom-Fehr, however, saw great success, albeit only appearing in eight games as of 1/12/11. There are days when I watch the Caps play, and I see them win, and I think "Maybe I'm wrong, maybe Boudreau has it right." But then I realize that is crazy talk, and the team only wins because it has superb players, and they should be winning much more easily against these teams, and why the hell are they getting outshot, and... okay, maybe I'm a little crazy, but Bruce drove me there.

Are you not entertained?!

So for the actual preview of tonight. With the game starting with Chimera on the top line, and Fehr presumably on the third, I doubt the Capitals will start the game with an offensive burst. After Boudreau's comments regarding MSG and Ranger's fans, I'm sure the place will be roaring tonight. Luckily for the boys in red, that just fires Ovechkin up. Against my better judgment, I will again predict a Caps win, 4-2. Girardi and Staal did well the last two games holding Ovechkin back, but he has also dealt out a punishing 17 hits over three games, and he still leads the team in points. They are not enough to stop the Russian Machine, and better have tried to break him. Expect Ovi to lead the way again tonight, and Fehr to pot an insurance goal.

Game 3 Recap

2011-04-17T19:07:00.003-04:00

Well that's my bad. I made the ballsy move of actually having faith in my team for the first time in 11 months, and was rewarded by having half of my predicted score come true. Unfortunately, the other half did not, and the Capitals lose 3-2 in regulation to the Rangers. Five thoughts on the game:

Neuvirth has to stop that first goal. This has been an issue of his all season. The kid routinely fails to close off the posts, particularly the three-hole. It is not the first time a terrible shot has gone in against him on a penalty kill. The announcers on NBC rightfully spent a good portion of the game tearing him apart for letting that goal in, among other mistakes of a rookie goalie. He gave up far too many juicy rebounds, as he did when he first came into the NHL. Normally, I would expect to see Varlamov in net next game, but knowing Boudreau, Neuvirth will not have lost his chance.
It is refreshing to see that the special teams are getting the job done. The penalty kill only allowed one goal on seven penalties, including both an extended 5-on-3 and a very brief one. The only goal against cannot be attributed to the skaters, as, again, Neuvy absolutely has to stop a shot from that angle. The powerplay was a refreshing one for three tonight, courtesy of another hard working effort from Knuble.
I know, buddy. I know.
Speaking of penalties, Boudreau certainly seemed to have a valid complaint with the "ticky-tack" goals, given that this was a crucial Game 3. The Caps took eight penalties to the Rangers four, including offsetting minors at the end of the game. Some of them you can't avoid calling, like Knuble's delay of game. The holding against Hannan, though? That's a call that the refs need to let slide, and in fact usually do even during the regular season.
The Caps were again out-shot, this time pretty badly. Team good guys took 25 shots, while team bad guys took 35. Lundqvist is not a rookie or a fluky goalie. Washington needs to shoot the puck more, crash the net more, and shoot the puck some more. Getting out-shout by an undeniably less offensively gifted team cannot be accepted in the playoffs. Still a big blip on my S-list radar: Jason Chimera. Friday's game-winning goal scorer had a whopping zero shots on net tonight, played the third-lowest ice time on the team, and was incredibly invisible all night. Again, I would like to think that Fehr would see some ice in Game 4, but sadly I do not really think it will happen.
And while Semin took a team-leading six shots on goal without being rewarded with a point, at least his luck wasn't as bad as that of the Rangers' Brian Boyle, who took a game-high nine shots on goal, had no points, and finished a -1.
Line-juggling is "in" again with Boudreau. Semin, Laich, and Sturm were playing on all kinds of lines today, with all kinds of linemates. Team chemistry, in theory, has been Boudreau's goal all season, but looking back on the relatively static lines in the team's wins compared with the more fluid lines in tonight's loss and those from last year's series, I still cannot agree with BB's preferred method of searching for chemistry.

And for your amusement.

Quick Game 3 Preview

2011-04-17T14:06:00.003-04:00

I have neither the time nor the energy nor the financial motivation to have in-depth pre-game analyses of each playoff game, at least in Round 1. This is the second season, and to base predictions of what a team will do on the regular season or a minuscule sample of Round 1 games is not enough. If you need any proof of that statement, I want you to look at my previous posts and what I had to say about Michal Neuvirth and Jason Chimera. These are the two players that I assured everyone around me would be the cause of the Capitals' first round playoff loss.

Arnott likes to tempt fate: Not wearing a helmet and expecting
no concussions; Joining the Capitals for a deep playoff run, etc.

Neuvirth, I said, was the Caps' worst goalie, that his AHL Calder Cup wins could not hope to compare to the Stanley Cup playoffs, that he could not win a game without offensive support because of his tendency to allow an early goal and put his team behind so quickly in a game. Instead, Neuvirth is the kid that has allowed one goal across 138+ minutes of hockey while his team has scored only four in that same timespan. He may not have had to make the flashiest plays of all time (see, i.e. Varlamov's save on Crosby in '09), but he has come up huge for the team. Nothing will change the fact that I and many others believe him to be the team's worst option in net, but he is getting it done, and while he is statistically our weakest goaltender, he is still a hell of a lot better than many other teams' best options.

Jason Chimera, I said, was only good for over-skating the play, whiffing on goals, and being on ice when the bad guys score. After Game 1 I thought I had been prove correct. In Game 2, however, it was as though he had read my criticism and decided that was the day he would score the game winner on a beautiful play that made Lundqvist's head spin. He may have had a lot of support from Laich and Johansson, but Chimera was in the right spot, took the right shot, and earned the second star of the game. If he keeps up that kind of play, then I will be rooting to see Marco Sturm sit for Eric Fehr instead of Chimera. Again, nothing will change the fact that I believe Fehr to be a better player than Chimera. But if he performs to his potential, or above his potential, then whoever is not doing so needs to see some bench time for F16, and right now that looks to be Marco Sturm, who is inexplicably on the second line with Arnott and Semin.

Gaborik is preparing to pop, lock, and
drop it... five feet wide of the net

If the Capitals can win the Cup, and I have to eat my words during the whole run, so be it, I will be happy to do so. Because while these guys were the ones I was most disappointed to see on ice again and again during the regular season, I know that in the second season that play means almost nothing. The Capitals are experts at disappointing their fans after superb regular seasons, especially with Boudreau as coach. They have a record of 3-5 when leading a series 2-0, with the most recent soul-crushing series loss coming at home at the hands of the Penguins in 2009. Tonight, though, I expect a 3-0 lead for the boys in red and white, a 4-3 win with goals from Arnott, Semin, Green, and Gordon on the Capitals, and two from Gaborik and one from Drury on the Rangers. This is pure speculation by me, much like sitting at a roulette table and putting your chips down on numbers you happen to like that night. All while chanting C-A-P-S CAPS CAPS CAPS CAPS CAPS!!!!!

Thoughts on Defending Poor Play

2011-04-15T14:03:00.051-04:00

Late this morning, there emerged something of a minor twittle battle between Mike Vogel (@VogsCaps), Senior Writer for www.washingtoncaps.com and reporter for Caps365, and a couple of Caps fans who want to see some change in the lineup. The issues arose over Vogel's praise of Neuvirth and Chimera. It all appeared to start with his tweet saying "I believe we will see Fehr at some point. We won't tonight. No sense in changing anything after team's Game 1 performance."

Chimera, making his "did you seriously
ask if I plan on scoring tonight?" face

This clearly made a few people frown while they were at home, thinking of Chimera's season-long inability to produce offensively, team-worst +/-, and being one of two "minus" skaters for Washington in Game 1. Soooo the fans began to say as much. In my opinion, Vogel began to dig himself deeper into a hole by responding with asinine and unfounded statements, which I imagine is simply the job of a team's beat writer. People who are paid by a given sports team are expected to defend the decisions of that team's management. Most fans expect and know this, aggravating as it may be. But an issue arises when fans call out a team's writer on his unsubstantiated claims, and the writer actually chooses to respond: "@VogsCaps: Thought 25 was v-good in Game 1. Physical presence. @jnestoriak: hate to disagree but after 25's performance in G1 i'd like 16 in tonight"

This is when a writer needs to avoid "poking the bear." Those of us who are not paid by the Capitals are free to look at the stats and watch the game and know that Chimera was a major liability on the ice, as he has been in most of the games this season. To say that a player like Eric Fehr, who has been a clutch player on the team and has been one of the league leaders in goals scored per 60 minutes the past couple seasons, should sit in favor of Chimera because 25 had a "physical presence," and that alone makes him a "v-good" player... that's a joke.

This is his serious face. That
is not even my attempt at humor.

The play of Michal Neuvirth also was pulled into the foray when a fan questioned coaches' decision making abilities: "@VogsCaps: Cup goes to team with 16 wins, not save % champ.@RajeevAnanda: coaches also think goalie wins are more important than even strength save %." Vogel followed up that cheap-shot with this beauty: "@VogsCaps: Understand. Also know Niemi was 6th in ESSP in '10 playoffs. @RajeevAnanda: even strength sv% is how you reliably get those wins." Yes, clearly 16 wins is the stat that matters in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Here's the problem with implying that save percentage doesn't matter: there are 16 teams in the playoffs. Pointing out that Niemi was 6th in that area means that he was in the top 25% of playoff goalies in that particular statistic - 27 goalies played in the 09-10 playoffs. All he did was confirm RajeevAnanda's point: that save percentage leads to wins. While I don't have the breakdown on even strength and special teams save percentages, I do know that of the 16 teams' starting playoff goalies, Neuvirth is tied for dead last in overall regular season save percentage with the Lightning's Dwayne Roloson. Of all goaltenders to play 25 or more games in the regular season, Varlamov is 6th overall, while Braden Holtby sits between Tim Thomas and Pekka Rinne when you include all goalies that played even one game.

Now I do not agree with the notion that Neuvirth should be pulled. He played very well in Game 1, and you have to go with the hot hand. That is how Niemi got his starting gig, and it's what you need to do to win. I do think Chimera needs to spend some time with Vogs in the press box, though.

Feel free to make baseless generalizations because it is your job, but don't insult the fans by getting defensive when they rightfully challenge you, and by extension, the Capitals. We want to see them in the Cup as much as anyone in the organization does, so we want our best players out there when it matters. Fehr, like it or not Boudreau and Vogel, is one of our best players. Don't say that save percentage is not as important as wins while ignoring that save percentage is one of the most crucial ways to win just because the team's worst goalie is inexplicably the starter for the third straight year. All that being said, Vogel is one of the best Caps writers (as you would expect based on his position), and this was a rare mis-step on his part. For a more in-depth comparison of Fehr and Chimera, see my earlier post on lines.

Caps vs Rangers Game 1 Recap

2011-04-14T00:16:00.004-04:00

It's about time I put the official photo up

So I was expecting the Caps to get blown out based on previous games between these two big-market teams, Neuvirth's propensity to allow a ton of goals, and the Caps' recent history of shi... deucing the bed to open the playoffs under Boudreau. Instead we got a tight game with lots of defense, minimal scoring, and it was decided in OT. Neuvirth came into this game with a spectacular OT record. With 1:36 to go in the game, Semin rocketed the puck to the right of Lundqvist on a beautiful one-timer from veteran Arnott.

Thanks to blackout rules, I was only able to watch the third period and OT... which is to say that I did not miss much other than having to eat a bit of crow. This is one of those times when I'm happy I was wrong. Five thoughts on the game:

Neuvirth performed amiably, outlasting a guy who has been mentioned as a serious Vezina contender in a battle of goalies. A couple of good glove saves on hard angle shots, and it is hard to fault him for the one that got by, seeing as he never had a chance to see the puck. There were a few times when he was saved by luck and/or the post, but if he can keep playing like this, then I won't feel quite as nervous.
One of the other big stories of this game was the return of Mike Green, and he did not miss a beat. Paired with Erskine for the majority of the game, Green finished with an assist on Ovechkin's first goal, 4 shots, and 4 blocked shots. He skated smoothly, was there on the offense, and showed why people were talking about his new defensive play. 52 is going to be a factor for as long as the Capitals are playing this Spring.
Blocked shots. The two teams put a combined 58 shots on net through almost 78 minutes of game time, but they combined for another 60 blocked. Caps had 32 blocked shots (33 on net) while the Rangers had 28 blocked and 25 on net. Only three blueshirts failed to register a blocked shot, while the good guys consolidated a bit more, with seven skaters failing to block a shot. Alzner and Schultz led the way for the game, with 8 and 6 blocked shots, respectively. This series will leave some serious bruises.
Semin, a key player in the last playoff series between these guys, showed up huge in the end, finally scoring a goal a year after failing to light the lamp a single time against Montreal despite a career-best 40 goals in 09-10. The goal came as a result of a miscue on the part of Mark Staal, who attempted to clear the puck directly into trade deadline acquisition Jason Arnott. Arnott, now with 108 playoff games under his belt, picked up the clearing attempt and made a beauty of a pass to Sasha Minor for the late late game winner. Semin also assisted on Sasha Major's goal, and was the only player on the ice to finish +2 for the game. With that mention, Ovechkin is a man on a mission, and from the looks of thing, he'll be damned if an opposing player will get in his way. With a goal, game-highs in shots and hits at six apiece, Ovi showed the Rangers that Staal and Girardi will not be enough to hold him back from what he wants: Lord Stanley's Cup.
The third line continues to be an issue for Washington. This, again, is the issue with having so many forwards. Chimera and Johansson were the only two players on the Caps to finish negative, combining for five hits, three shots on net, and two blocked shots. MJ90 slumped on the dot, as he has done all season, winning only two out of seven attempts, including some key losses in the offensive zone late in the game. Originally Laich appeared to be the other man on the line, going a stellar 13 for 18 in faceoffs, and being on ice for that first goal against along with the other two. Laich was paired with Arnott and Semin late in the game, and we all saw how that ended up. If Boudreau can find a way to make this line mesh (which in my ideal world means swapping MoJo for Perreault and Chimera for Fehr), then the Caps should see a lot more chances go their way and a lot less going against. Until three guys with complimentary styles are put together on this line, it will continue to big the team's biggest liability. As it stands, putting Sturm on a line with Johansson and Chimera makes me imagine putting three Luis Mendozas on a line together.

Quick Prediction

2011-04-13T15:09:00.002-04:00

Rather than publishing the 2000th series preview post, I will spare anyone who is actually reading this and just let you know my prediction for tonight's game. Based on my previous posts and feelings about the lines, the goalie, and the coach, you can probably guess.

Rangers will win, 5-2. Ovi and Laich will score for the good guys, while the Blueshirts will get two from Dubinsky, one from Gaborik, one from Drury, and one from a grinder.

Over the past three years, the Caps have not allowed less than 4 goals to open the playoffs. Huet allowed 4 in an opening win against the Flyers in 07-08, Theodore allowed 4 in a loss against the Rangers in 08-09, and Theodore allowed 6 goals in an overtime loss to the Canadiens last year. Neuvirth has nowhere near the experience these two guys had, past their prime as they may have been during their time with the Capitals. The Rangers have also decimated the Caps this season, outscoring the team 15-1 in their last three matchups (7-0, 6-0, 2-1). And again, Neuvirth is the worst goalie the team has (though better than many other starters in the league). Boudreau is also not putting forth our most offensively talented forwards (see my thoughts on benching Fehr in yesterday's post), and are without Dennis Wideman for at least the entire series against the Rangers. This is the Caps' hardest Eastern Conference opponent, and the line combos are simply not built for a win. Even without Callahan, Frolov, and Boogaard, the Rangers are still a potent threat with Marion Gaborik, Brandon Dubinsky, Mark Staal, and Chris Drury. Unless Semin wakes up, and Boudreau shuffles the lines into an arrangement with Laich playing alongside Arnott and Semin, I don't see a scenario where the Caps can win.

Series prediction: Rangers in 5.

Help me Ovi, you're my only hope.

Playoff lines

2011-04-13T01:10:00.001-04:00

Forwards

The Capitals are officially entering the post-season this week with their worst goalie as their starter, again, and you can read my previous post for my thoughts on that. They have had two practices with the same lines, so they have a good idea of who they are all going to be playing with for at least Game 1 (see link below). All the team's forwards are (at least believed to be) healthy. You have left wingers Ovechkin (8), Brooks Laich (21), Marco Sturm (18), Jason Chimera (25), and D.J. King (17); centers Backstrom (19), Jason Arnott (44), Marcus Johansson (90), and Boyd Gordon (15); right wingers Mike Knuble (22), Alexander Semin (28), Eric Fehr (16), Matt Bradley (10), and Jay Beagle (83); and everyman Matt Hendricks (26). That means 15 players for 12 spots. Another great quote is "A good problem to have is still a problem." This is an issue the Caps had last year, too. Who do you play? Who do you sit? I again am a big fan of playing who is the best with who they play best with. So with that, here are my ideal forward lines (ones I do not expect to see given the shuffling of players that BB has become so enamored with, and ones that are clearly in conflict with what we know they will be):

Hey Matt, you've got a little something in your eye

8-19-16
21-44-28
18-90-22
26-15-10

This means that I am sitting Jay Beagle, which can be expected as he is primarily a Hershey Bears player and an injury callup; D.J. King, which can also be expected based on the fact that he played left bench more often than left wing this season; and Jason Chimera. This last choice is the "problem" part of the "good problem to have," and really is the only debate in who should sit and who should play. Yes, having King in there to scare a Blueshirt or two might be nice for a game or two, but I'm talking about someone to have in for an entire series or Cup run.

Currently, it looks as though Fehr is not in the lineup for Game 1, and I feel that is a much larger problem than not having Chimera playing. Both players scored 10 goals this year. The difference is, Chimera played in 81 games and Fehr played in 52. On average, it takes 107 minutes and 22 seconds of ice time for Chimera to score a goal, and 67 minutes and 6 seconds to earn an assist. Fehr requires 65 minutes and 27 seconds to score a goal, and the same amount of time to earn an assist. Chimera was also a team-worst -10, with Tyler "Oh-my-God-the-puck-is-over-there-now" Sloan finishing second-worst with a -6 and Fehr finishing even. Chimera is also a good bit more familiar with the penalty box than F16, averaging .790 penalty minutes a game compared to Fehr's .308. Fehr is a player who scores more per game, assists teammates more per game, is on ice for fewer even strength and shorthanded goals, and takes less than half the penalties as Chimera. I don't see how this is a contest, but it again shows BB's weakness for certain players (Chimera, Steckel, Johansson) and utterly illogical disdain for others (Fehr, Fleischmann, Perreault). Chimera should probably get some ice time during the series, but I would prefer it was at the expense of someone who performs worse, not better, than he does.

Fleury and Boudreau were equally shocked to see Fehr on ice.

I also have Fehr on the top line. The Caps just inked Knuble, who now has eight-straight 20-goal seasons, to a one-year, $2 million extension. Knuble has been one of the more durable forwards, and while he has dry spells, he has been one of the more consistent guys, as well. However, he is set to turn 39 on Independence Day, while Fehr will only be turning 26 come September. One of these guys is probably going to be the team's top-line net crasher for the foreseeable future, and I think I'd put Knuble's new contract on Fehr being that guy. He is younger, faster, plays a similar style, and for the past two seasons has been one of the top goals-per-60 guys in the league. Why not give him the chance to make up for last year's disappointing outing in the playoffs with the best odds of doing so? He was a killer of flightless birds on New Year's, and still managed to hit 10 goals in an injury-plagued season (thanks Steckel). On a team with so many skilled forwards, it is not a punishment for Knuble to play on the third line. A man with his skills should help youngster Johansson and speed demon Chimera put their skills together for a goal or two.

Defenders

The defenders are a lot easier to set up than the forwards. Firstly, the Caps are decimated at the blueline by injuries. Green, Poti, and Wideman, all out. Green, at least, should be back for the first game. Don't be surprised if Poti makes a surprise showing by Game 2, either. Secondly, it is pretty easily apparent which guys, in a healthy world, are best set playing with the cushy chairs in the press box. In case you don't know who they all are, the Caps' D-men are Green (52), Schultz (55), Carlson (74), Alzner (27), Hannan (23), Wideman (6), Erskine (4), Poti (3), Sloan (89), and recent call-up Sean Collins (62). That being said, here are my picks for the defensive pairings:

74-27
52-23
4-55

This setup may actually be a little controversial for the Caps faithful, so let me explain. Carlson and Alzner have put together a spectacular season, with Carlson getting some much-deserved Calder talk, even though the award will certainly go to a forward, and Carlson would be a surprise nomination. With Green having missed so many games, and Hannan being so lackluster offensively, there is no reason to take the two youngsters off top-pairing duties. They, in my opinion, are at the core of the new system. Green is one of the league's elite defensemen, a two-time Norris finalist, and Hannan has finally developed into the solid shutdown man the Caps thought they traded for in the first place. But as noted, missed games and no knack for the net delegate them to the second pairing, at least for now.

"Well hey there, little fella! I just
need to get on through here, don't mind me.

Normally, Schultz plays with Green. However, I've always believed that Schultz held Green back, and Green made Sarge look good. This year has shown a lot of that, with Green's diminished numbers and Schultz making a good number of mistakes in his own end. Green would benefit from Hannan's experience and vocal nature, especially when he is just returning from injury. Schultz, on the other hand, being the Cap's biggest player, would benefit from playing a bit more physical - a role more at place for a third-pairing guy, and a role Erskine knows well. Were Poti healthy again, I would swap him in for Erskine. Poti is a bit more offensive minded, but can play the physical game, too. Now, in a world where Wideman is healthy, the lines change a bit:

52-6
74-27
55-23

Putting two of the league's better puck-moving defensemen on the same line has the potential to yield quick offensive results, but Wideman's propensity for making mistakes in his own end brings up some serious risks. Luckily, Green has solidified his defensive game and can minimize that risk while maximizing the reward. The skill and experience of these guys demotes the young 'uns to the second pairing, leaving Schultz and Hannan as a big, defensive shutdown pairing. That third pairing is not going to produce a lot of points, but it will absorb a lot of shots and give out the occasional big hit.

Final note: Notice how you don't see Sloan or Collins? Good for you. Sloan is the rare player who has moved between forward and defense over his career, and the still-rarer one of those players that is 30 years old and cannot keep track of the play when he is (un)lucky enough to get ice time. Collins has shown himself to be fairly capable, and I would actually prefer to have him on ice instead of Sloan, or to give Erskine/Poti a rest. But unless there is a need for him, he can't quite crack the top-6 on the depth chart. Erskine, Poti, and Sloan should never again be in the top 4 on the Caps blueline, and after this season, probably not even on the top six.

I FRIGGIN' LOVE YOU GUYS!!

So let's just try for the playoffs

2011-04-11T15:04:00.000-04:00

Clearly I bailed on this blog early on. If you want to see a successful one, go to my good friend Meesh's blog:
http://whatthepucknhl.blogspot.com/

So with it being the end of the season, I will at least try to do my own coverage for the last three games (and maybe tonight's), and then get into it for the playoffs. You can expect rants against certain players and coaches, as I am an angry fan. I am one of the fans that others complain about, because I do feel like I am owed a Stanley Cup. I expect the best from my team, and that means the best roster moves, the best lines, the best strategies, and the best effort from the best players. As the playoffs are nigh upon us, I will go into a lengthy rant against the person who is most on my Capitals Organization S-list: Bruce "Can-I-Get-Some-F***ing-Haagen-Dazs" Boudreau. A post discussing my picks for the best lines will be next.

Boudreau

"Holy f***ing sh**balls how the f*** could you
forget to bring me a snow cone you *******!?"

I don't know that there is another coach in the league who is this awful when it comes to picking goaltenders. I start with his first year coaching the Caps. He opened up the offense and let loose the dogs of war on the league, turning a sleeping giant into an epic offensive powerhouse, almost instantly upon his arrival. That was an amazing thing to witness. As was his mismanagement of his goalies come playoff time. Cristobal Huet had a fantastic streak of wins to end the season, largely without rest. So it wasn't really a big surprise when he allowed 16 goals in the first four games against the Flyers. What was a huge surprise was when Kolzig, who had played his entire professional career with the Caps, winning the Vezina one year and taking the Caps to the Stanley Cup finals in another, and through every other playoff series since the days of Jim Carey, did not get the start in Game 5. Or Game 6. Or Game 7. Or heck, even Game 3. So it was even less surprising when the Caps lost that series, although Game 7 was decided far far more by piss-poor officiating than anything else. And it was still less surprising when Kolzig, one of the game's all-time class acts, one of the most respected goaltenders and leaders in the league, ended his time with our beloved Caps by taking his name off his own locker after that series, and left the phone booth disgusted with the way he was treated. He was traded around a couple teams, barely playing in the NHL after that, and I can assure you that was the message he wanted to send: I know my time here is done, but as much as I love the nation's capital, I will not end my career with a coach who does not respect what I have given this team and will not play me in the playoffs in a scenario where the starter has been completely blasted by a lesser squad. Boudreau won the Jack Adams award for the league's best coach.

Fast forward another year to 08-09. The Capitals have a few goaltenders: the starter was former league MVP and Vezina winner Jose Theodore, primary backup Brent Johnson, first-round pick youngster Semyon/Semeon/Simeon/Simyon/You get the idea Varlamov, and fellow youngster Michal Neuvirth. Theodore picked up an impressive record of 32-17-5, but a far far less impressive GAA of 2.87 and a SV% of .900. His SV% put him at 37th best among teams' top-2 goalies in the league, and his GAA was not much better at 36th best. Johnson's and Neuvirth's stats were similar, while Varlamov posted impressive stats for a rookie in his 6 games. He posted a 4-0-1 record, 2.37 GAA and .918 SV%. Come playoffs, Theodore was the starter against the lower-ranked Rangers. He allowed 6 goals in his two starts for a loss in Game 1and being pulled in Game 2. Varlamov took over for the remainder of the postseason, playing more games during that span than he had in the regular season. After being pulled in a poor showing during Game 7 against the Penguins in the second round, Varlamov had a playoff record of 7-6-0, .918 SV%, 2.53 GAA, and 2 shutouts. Boudreau was hailed for his incredibly gutsy move of pulling his 30+ win starter and going with a largely untested kid who could not buy a beer to celebrate his first win. Though the playoffs ended in disappointment, the Caps had put on a good show and could walk away saying they lost to the eventual Stanley Cup champions in an epic series.


Likely just the first of many that game.

Next season saw Varlamov's chance to continue his postseason success and take the starting job away from Theodore. Unfortunately, Varly fell under the Verizon Center ice's spell, and was frequently sidetracked by groin injuries. Theodore remained the starter, even when Varlamov returned from injury. By this time, Theodore was referred to by fans with his new nickname, Three-or-more, as often as he was by his given name. He finished the season 30-7-7 with one shutout, a .911 SV%, and a 2.81 GAA. Varlamov's injury-plagued season ended with a 15-6-6 record with two shutouts, .909 SV%, and a 2.55 GAA. Theodore had the hotter hand by season's end, with a number of great games that boosted his stats above where they had been for the majority of the season. Then we entered the playoffs. Theodore was again the starter. He again faced a lesser team. He again lost Game 1. The score was 6-5 when the Canadiens won in OT. Boudreau again started him in Game 2, and again pulled him when he allowed two goals on the first two shots of the game. Varlamov was again put in net. Unfortunately, the goals had all been scored in Game 1, and the Caps lost in seven in quite possibly the greatest upset in NHL history. Varly posted consistent stats in the post-season, with a 3-3-0 record (he won Game 2), .908 SV% and 2.41 GAA.

It was at this point that fans (with me leading the charge in Pittsburgh) calling for Boudreau's head. For starting Theodore. For putting the lines in a blender and pouring out random assortments by the end of the series. For losing yet another 7-game series at home. For taking the most dominant team in the league and decimating their chemistry and putting on an amateur-hour showing in the playoffs. For throwing away the last game of the season, a game that affected the playoff standings and put the Caps up against the only team in the league to give them regular-season headaches. But Boudreau had posted a franchise-record setting season with 121 points, the Caps first-ever President's trophy, and a slew of other impressive stats. Leonsis and McPhee, logically, could not be brought to parting ways with BB.

"How many goals will a line with Chimera,
Gordon, and a fan wearing a Bondra jersey score ?"

We enter this season. The Caps parted ways with Theodore, who in time signed with the Wild, made questionable decisions in not seeking a second line center or top-4 defenseman, and decided to go with the young goaltending tandem of Varlamov and Neuvirth. Varlamov, who had shown what he can do in the NHL, and Neuvirth, who had lackluster NHL showings but had two Calder Cups and an AHL playoffs MVP under his belt. Varlamov had the same season as last year, set aside by injuries. Neuvirth took over Theodore's role as the beneficiary of the offense's better performances while putting up the worst SV% and GAA of the three goalies who played during the regular season. Varlamov, while posting stats placing him in the top 10 of the league's starters, finished with a losing record (since the dominant word in "overtime loss" for me is "loss"). Boudreau likes it when his goalies win, and doesn't care how they get there. He also was desperate to find a reason why the Caps lost to the Canadiens. He decided that the line shuffling was not a detriment to team chemistry, but was in fact the best way to make sure everyone was comfortable with anyone. I was reminded of a line from The Incredibles (I paraphrase here): "Everyone is special." "That's just another way of saying nobody is." While Boudreau was spinning the roulette wheel of line arrangements, players fell by the wayside, individual stats dropped, and offense dropped. BB did find great success with the penalty kill, however. By constantly shifting PK time and lines, the team was no longer dependent on last year's "top" killers of Dave Steckel and Tom Poti. Last year's squad had one of the league's worst PKs. Those two players logged the most ice time for a forward and defenseman, respectively, on the PK, and they both had above-average powerplay goals against while on ice. Shockingly to those who are not me, when their roles were lessened (or in Poti's case, removed by uinjury), the PK effectiveness became one of the league's best, consistently, for the entire season. However, the Capitals as a group suffered from Boudreau's Great Search for The Answer to The Playoffs. While the team finished tops in the Eastern Conference, this is largely because of the goaltending. I may complain about starting Neuvirth, but he has had a spectacular season - it just has not been as spectacular as Varlamov's or Braden Holtby's. I see no reason to take the worst goalie into the playoffs because he happened to play the most games. We tried this the last two seasons and went home losers.

"I'd prefer it if I didn't have to cry myself to sleep tonight because of you."

Belanger Deserved Better

2010-09-15T14:30:00.000-04:00

Let me lead by saying that GMGM and Boudreau have done wonders for reviving the franchise and building a fantastic team, and their work over the past decade at the NHL and AHL levels has been top-notch.
That being said, their jobs are not lifetime appointments. You can work hard and do well, but when that stops, your job should be less than secure. The lack of playoff success should put Boudreau on the hot seat, and I think that most agree with me there. Our team has had plenty of regular season success, but for nearly 40 years we've been haunted by the lack of a Cup.
GMGM has built a great team. But the past two years have been pretty poor, in my opinion. Contract extensions for guys like Erskine, Steckel, and Sloan (without debate our current three worst consistent starters), the lack of activity during free agency this year (no defensemen when there was ample opportunity and cap space), and now the Belanger mess. If we don't win the cup this year, and if GMGM doesn't prove that he knows something we all don't, then a change in management is needed.
Thoughts?

Let me explain myself

2010-08-14T01:24:00.000-04:00

I've decided that I have too much free time between my two jobs, career job search, and prepping for my final semester of law school leading into the bar exam... so here I am with a hockey blog. Mostly. Probably. We'll see how this turns out.