The Capitals and the Myth of Consistency, Pt. 1

So when you don't live in the DC area, and you don't have Center Ice, and you can only get a mediocre feed on the internet... you miss a lot of a particular Caps game. So I was not totally able to watch enough of the game to give a decent recap, other than to say that I am still not at all impressed with Neuvirth, that I think it is even more apparent that good teams know to shoot it glove high every time on him, and that Chimera must read this blog because he scores every game after I say he should get traded. But back to the Neuvirth thing: a lot of the recaps I have read all say that he was strong in net, and all summer and during last year he was referred to as consistent. They said Varlamov struggled with consistency. Neuvirth did fairly consistently get wins, and Varly had a losing record. But teams win games, goalies are only one aspect of that.

For example, last night Neuvirth allowed three goals on 31 shots through over 62 minutes of playing time, and got a win. Varly allowed two goals on 38 shots in 59 minutes of regulation, and his team lost because they could not score a single goal. Should Neuvirth get credit for the win, and Varly for the loss? Most logical people would say absolutely not, especially when watching Neuvirth sprawl all over the ice, give up lots of rebounds, and be too far out of position on each of the three goals scored on him. So in this post, I will examine why people think Neuvirth is consistent and why I disagree.

So one thing I learned in business school was how to use Excel, so I figured this is as good of a reason as any to try it out in the "real" world. Now, for reference, in 2010-2011 Neuvirth had a record of 27-12-4 with a .914 SV% and 2.45 GAA in 45 starts. Varlamov had a record of 11-9-5 with a .924 SV% and 2.23 GAA in 25 starts. For goalies who started 25 games or more, Varlamov was tied for 4th in save percentage and Neuvirth was tied for 23rd. For GAA, Varly was 4th in the same group of goalies and Neuvirth was tied for 14th. The only three goalies who were ahead of Varly in both categories were Tim Thomas, Roberto Luongo, and Pekka Rinne: your Vezina finalists for the season. Neuvirth's numbers put him squarely in the middle-to-bottom third of the league for starting or 1A goalies. However, he is viewed as a more consistent player, and Varly got shipped out. Let's compare their seasons using graphs.

Each graph tracks the goalies' performance in one of three measures for each game they played (as opposed to started): Goals Against (not GAA), Save Percentage, and Shots Against. One outlier game for Varlamov has been left out, and two for Neuvirth. The 7-0 loss against the Rangers is excused for Varly, while Neuvy gets a pass on a game where he allowed 6 goals as well as a game where he played for less than one minute. Every goalie has those games, and all can agree they are not the norm and realistically should not be considered in a comparison such as this. With all that said, here is the GA chart:

 
 A best fit line here would show you that yes, throughout the season, Neuvirth averaged 2.45 goals against per game. It is a remarkably straight line. I chose not to include it here because that is not what we are looking at. We know what his GAA is, my issue is with the notion that he was consistent in that. Consistent implies that in just about each game, he is allowing two or three goals. However, if you look at the chart (Neuvirth is red), you see that, from game to game, he was anything but consistent. He allowed four goals in eight separate games. In all, his goals against were outside the one-to-three goal range in 12 of 45 games. Neuvirth had a good October, and was very solid during the second half of February and the first half of March. The rest of the year, though, he was either injured or allowing three or more goals per game, typically a number that leads to losses. Given his win-loss record, though, it is obvious that the offense bailed him out on these occasions.

Varly, on the other hand, allowed four goals only twice, and they were balanced out with two shutouts. In the interest of disclosure, his best-fit line trends slightly upwards, largely because he had his shutouts early in the season. Most of his part of the chart is centered in the one-to-three goal range, with only four of 26 games venturing out of that region. In terms of goals against game-to-game, Varly comes out ahead in the battle of consistency.

This chart shows the game-to-game save percentages. Again, Neuvirth is in red and Varlamov in blue. In October, the month where Neuvirth won rookie-of-the-month accolades from the NHL and first cemented the notion that he could be a starter, his save percentages were all over the place. Because of his low save percentage on Oct. 19, as well as his and Varly's low percentages in early February, the graph makes it appear that the variation really is not all that great. When talking about NHL-caliber numbers, though, you really want your goalies to consistently stop at least 90% of the shots against him. Realistically, if he only stops that many, your team's GM is very likely browsing the market for a new starter (here's looking at you, Theodore). Routinely varying between 85% and 95% to average out around 91-92% is not the ideal, but that is Neuvy's game. Honestly, as much as I am not a fan of the kid, I was shocked at how often he stopped less than 90% of his shots (19 out of 45 games). It absolutely baffles me how he was ever considered ahead of Varly (when both were healthy) on the depth chart when looking at those kinds of numbers. A model of consistency he is not. Varlamov, on the other hand, saw his SV% drop below 90% only three times in 26 appearances. Almost every game was spent in the 90-95% save percentage range, the very kind of consistency you want to see, even if the season percentage is the same as Neuvirth's. Varly:2, Neuvy:0.

 Finally, the shots against chart. Obviously this does not speak to the goaltenders' play. Shots against for a goalie are a factor of the play of the team in front of him. I put this up mostly because I was curious about another commonly mentioned aspect of the Capital's "strengths" last season: being better defensively. The Caps' goalies backstopped the team to one of their strongest seasons ever in terms of goals against, and many attributed this to better defensive play of the forwards. Personally, I never saw it, and it was always my belief that the team just had better goalies than Theodore, Huet, and late-career Kolzig. The best-fit lines here bare that out to an extent (it is hard to say how much the number of "good shots" increased or decreased as the year went on. I can only speak to overall shots). On average, by the end of the season Neuvirth was facing one less shot per game than at the start of the year, and Varlamov was facing about two less shots. Throughout the year, though, Varly averaged more shots against than Neuvy, yet put up consistently and substantially better numbers. Neuvirth, in fact, faced fairly absurd inconsistency in the number of shots against, while Varly was pretty much guaranteed to see somewhere around 30 shots.

It is certainly possible that Neuvirth was a victim when it came to the number of shots against, but given that both his shots against and his save percentage (which NHL all-time record holder for the stat Tim Thomas calls "the best individual stat for a goalie") were lower than Varlamov's, I'm not quite buying that argument. When it comes to consistency and Neuvirth, the two are not quite as buddy-buddy as many would have you think. Just because hockey media says something is a certain way does not make it so.

So let's just try for the playoffs

Clearly I bailed on this blog early on. If you want to see a successful one, go to my good friend Meesh's blog:
http://whatthepucknhl.blogspot.com/

So with it being the end of the season, I will at least try to do my own coverage for the last three games (and maybe tonight's), and then get into it for the playoffs. You can expect rants against certain players and coaches, as I am an angry fan. I am one of the fans that others complain about, because I do feel like I am owed a Stanley Cup. I expect the best from my team, and that means the best roster moves, the best lines, the best strategies, and the best effort from the best players. As the playoffs are nigh upon us, I will go into a lengthy rant against the person who is most on my Capitals Organization S-list: Bruce "Can-I-Get-Some-F***ing-Haagen-Dazs" Boudreau. A post discussing my picks for the best lines will be next.

Boudreau

"Holy f***ing sh**balls how the f*** could you
forget to bring me a snow cone you *******!?"

I don't know that there is another coach in the league who is this awful when it comes to picking goaltenders. I start with his first year coaching the Caps. He opened up the offense and let loose the dogs of war on the league, turning a sleeping giant into an epic offensive powerhouse, almost instantly upon his arrival. That was an amazing thing to witness. As was his mismanagement of his goalies come playoff time. Cristobal Huet had a fantastic streak of wins to end the season, largely without rest. So it wasn't really a big surprise when he allowed 16 goals in the first four games against the Flyers. What was a huge surprise was when Kolzig, who had played his entire professional career with the Caps, winning the Vezina one year and taking the Caps to the Stanley Cup finals in another, and through every other playoff series since the days of Jim Carey, did not get the start in Game 5. Or Game 6. Or Game 7. Or heck, even Game 3. So it was even less surprising when the Caps lost that series, although Game 7 was decided far far more by piss-poor officiating than anything else. And it was still less surprising when Kolzig, one of the game's all-time class acts, one of the most respected goaltenders and leaders in the league, ended his time with our beloved Caps by taking his name off his own locker after that series, and left the phone booth disgusted with the way he was treated. He was traded around a couple teams, barely playing in the NHL after that, and I can assure you that was the message he wanted to send: I know my time here is done, but as much as I love the nation's capital, I will not end my career with a coach who does not respect what I have given this team and will not play me in the playoffs in a scenario where the starter has been completely blasted by a lesser squad. Boudreau won the Jack Adams award for the league's best coach.

Fast forward another year to 08-09. The Capitals have a few goaltenders: the starter was former league MVP and Vezina winner Jose Theodore, primary backup Brent Johnson, first-round pick youngster Semyon/Semeon/Simeon/Simyon/You get the idea Varlamov, and fellow youngster Michal Neuvirth. Theodore picked up an impressive record of 32-17-5, but a far far less impressive GAA of 2.87 and a SV% of .900. His SV% put him at 37th best among teams' top-2 goalies in the league, and his GAA was not much better at 36th best. Johnson's and Neuvirth's stats were similar, while Varlamov posted impressive stats for a rookie in his 6 games. He posted a 4-0-1 record, 2.37 GAA and .918 SV%. Come playoffs, Theodore was the starter against the lower-ranked Rangers. He allowed 6 goals in his two starts for a loss in Game 1and being pulled in Game 2. Varlamov took over for the remainder of the postseason, playing more games during that span than he had in the regular season. After being pulled in a poor showing during Game 7 against the Penguins in the second round, Varlamov had a playoff record of 7-6-0, .918 SV%, 2.53 GAA, and 2 shutouts. Boudreau was hailed for his incredibly gutsy move of pulling his 30+ win starter and going with a largely untested kid who could not buy a beer to celebrate his first win. Though the playoffs ended in disappointment, the Caps had put on a good show and could walk away saying they lost to the eventual Stanley Cup champions in an epic series.

Likely just the first of many that game.

Next season saw Varlamov's chance to continue his postseason success and take the starting job away from Theodore. Unfortunately, Varly fell under the Verizon Center ice's spell, and was frequently sidetracked by groin injuries. Theodore remained the starter, even when Varlamov returned from injury. By this time, Theodore was referred to by fans with his new nickname, Three-or-more, as often as he was by his given name. He finished the season 30-7-7 with one shutout, a .911 SV%, and a 2.81 GAA. Varlamov's injury-plagued season ended with a 15-6-6 record with two shutouts, .909 SV%, and a 2.55 GAA. Theodore had the hotter hand by season's end, with a number of great games that boosted his stats above where they had been for the majority of the season. Then we entered the playoffs. Theodore was again the starter. He again faced a lesser team. He again lost Game 1. The score was 6-5 when the Canadiens won in OT. Boudreau again started him in Game 2, and again pulled him when he allowed two goals on the first two shots of the game. Varlamov was again put in net. Unfortunately, the goals had all been scored in Game 1, and the Caps lost in seven in quite possibly the greatest upset in NHL history. Varly posted consistent stats in the post-season, with a 3-3-0 record (he won Game 2), .908 SV% and 2.41 GAA.

It was at this point that fans (with me leading the charge in Pittsburgh) calling for Boudreau's head. For starting Theodore. For putting the lines in a blender and pouring out random assortments by the end of the series. For losing yet another 7-game series at home. For taking the most dominant team in the league and decimating their chemistry and putting on an amateur-hour showing in the playoffs. For throwing away the last game of the season, a game that affected the playoff standings and put the Caps up against the only team in the league to give them regular-season headaches. But Boudreau had posted a franchise-record setting season with 121 points, the Caps first-ever President's trophy, and a slew of other impressive stats. Leonsis and McPhee, logically, could not be brought to parting ways with BB.

"How many goals will a line with Chimera,
Gordon, and a fan wearing a Bondra jersey score ?"

We enter this season. The Caps parted ways with Theodore, who in time signed with the Wild, made questionable decisions in not seeking a second line center or top-4 defenseman, and decided to go with the young goaltending tandem of Varlamov and Neuvirth. Varlamov, who had shown what he can do in the NHL, and Neuvirth, who had lackluster NHL showings but had two Calder Cups and an AHL playoffs MVP under his belt. Varlamov had the same season as last year, set aside by injuries. Neuvirth took over Theodore's role as the beneficiary of the offense's better performances while putting up the worst SV% and GAA of the three goalies who played during the regular season. Varlamov, while posting stats placing him in the top 10 of the league's starters, finished with a losing record (since the dominant word in "overtime loss" for me is "loss"). Boudreau likes it when his goalies win, and doesn't care how they get there. He also was desperate to find a reason why the Caps lost to the Canadiens. He decided that the line shuffling was not a detriment to team chemistry, but was in fact the best way to make sure everyone was comfortable with anyone. I was reminded of a line from The Incredibles (I paraphrase here): "Everyone is special." "That's just another way of saying nobody is." While Boudreau was spinning the roulette wheel of line arrangements, players fell by the wayside, individual stats dropped, and offense dropped. BB did find great success with the penalty kill, however. By constantly shifting PK time and lines, the team was no longer dependent on last year's "top" killers of Dave Steckel and Tom Poti. Last year's squad had one of the league's worst PKs. Those two players logged the most ice time for a forward and defenseman, respectively, on the PK, and they both had above-average powerplay goals against while on ice. Shockingly to those who are not me, when their roles were lessened (or in Poti's case, removed by uinjury), the PK effectiveness became one of the league's best, consistently, for the entire season. However, the Capitals as a group suffered from Boudreau's Great Search for The Answer to The Playoffs. While the team finished tops in the Eastern Conference, this is largely because of the goaltending. I may complain about starting Neuvirth, but he has had a spectacular season - it just has not been as spectacular as Varlamov's or Braden Holtby's. I see no reason to take the worst goalie into the playoffs because he happened to play the most games. We tried this the last two seasons and went home losers.

"I'd prefer it if I didn't have to cry myself to sleep tonight because of you."