Final Four - Looking at the Caps Last Four Games

The Capitals are making a surprising late-season push. Surprising, generally, for all the wrong reasons. Just about everyone (except me) had this year's team pegged for the top, a Stanley Cup favorite. Instead, with their 79th game of the season coming tonight against the Canadiens, they are in a tight battle for a playoff spot, courtesy of the NHL's worst division. As it stands, Washington sits in 8th place, two points out of 7th (although Ottawa has a game in hand), and four points behind third-place Florida. To make matters worse, they are tied in points with 9th place Buffalo, holding the ROW tiebreaker. This absurd reality goes to show just how lucky the Capitals have been: in a better, if not more competitive, division, things could be even worse, seeing as they only have a 11-7-4 record against their division rivals. With only four games remaining, each point is extremely important. So let's look at what is in store for them:

March 31 (Tonight): Montreal @ Washington

•  Montreal sits last place in the Eastern Conference, and have only scored a single goal against the Caps in three games. However, they have managed to hold Washington to a lone powerplay goal in 13 opportunities, an Eastern Conference stat bested only by the 0 for 14 powerplay shutout against the Devils this season. Not to mention that season villain Rene Bourque is now on the Habs, and news came this morning that season hero Nicklas Backstrom will make his (surely triumphant) return to the lineup this evening, and there are plenty of reasons the Capitals should easily win this game. A loss here, quite honestly, would just about crush playoff hopes and any remaining morale on the team. If they can't beat the worst team in the conference, a team they have absolutely dominated, on a night their best player from the first 38 games returns... Let's just not think about it and expect a solid win.

April 2: Washington @ Tampa Bay

• Last year's Stanley Cup Eastern Conference playoff finalists, who, as we all remember in our nightmares, swept the Caps in the second round, are in 12th place. They are nine points behind Washington, and only five ahead of Montreal. The season series record is 3-1-1. Again, there is no reason to believe the Capitals should or will lose this game, other than it has become the norm to expect the unexpected failures this season. Don't kid yourselves, though, the Lightning will absolutely be looking to play the part of spoiler. Steven Stamkos has all but locked up the Richard Trophy, and this is still a talented roster. It'll be hard-fought and close.

April 5: Florida @ Washington

• Talk about your big games. At this point, only four possible points will remain for Washington, and two will be available against the division leading team, who, as of right now, they sit four points behind. Depending on how things play out, this could be a game to take third in the conference, setting up a first round match against either Philly (1-2-1) or New Jersey (1-1-2). A loss would just about certainly put third out of reach, assuming the previous two games have not already put them out of reach of the playoffs to begin with. They should still win this game, as the Panthers are realistically an inferior team, and the 3-2-0 record against them speaks somewhat to that fact. Special teams will likely play a big factor in the game, since the Caps are clicking in at a 25% PP conversion rate against Florida, while the Panthers are coming in with about a 21% conversion rate against Washington. Should be very exciting.

April 7: Washington @ New York Rangers

•  Even at the last game of the season, against the likely top seed in the league, the two points will matter. Buffalo could still be tied with Washington, or even ahead. Same goes for Florida, or hell, even Ottawa. This is absolutely a playoff game, and even in the metaphorical sense. Really, this may be the first of a best-of-eight series for the Caps and Rangers, as the most likely matchup right now will be 1st seed Rangers against 8th seed Capitals. The season series is at 1-2-0, although Washington has only been outscored by one goal. This game, and a likely series, will be a lot closer than the standings and points would imply, especially if Backstrom, Green, and Vokoun are all healthy and at 100%. Semin and Ovechkin have returned to form of late. Johansson has finally been moved to the wing, and has seen his scoring increase. They only have three games before this one, but we should finally see a set lineup, with healthy players playing at their season best. Barring another injury, the Capitals really should win this one.

There is no real reason the Caps should not come out of these last four games with at least six points, if not all eight. Aside from that, they just about have to come out of these games with at least six points... if not all eight. As little faith as I have had in this team all season, and especially as of late, I feel pretty good about the next week. How about you?

Last-Minute Trade Deadline Thoughts

The trade deadline, as of the time I am writing this, is roughly 30 hours away. Our boys in red are currently one point out of the playoffs with 20 games to go, and there is no timetable for number one center Nicklas Backstrom's return. With Jeff Carter and Antoine Vermette traded out of Columbus already, the pickings are slim for a top-notch second line center that could also fill in on the first line while Nicky gets healthy. Someone that has both size and offensive prowess, not to mention the ability to win faceoffs and get off some good passes. The big problem is that the Capitals have what amounts to no cap space. They cannot even afford the league minimum salary for a call-up at this point. Good centers that fit the mold above are going to cost somewhere in the range of $3.5-6 million per year.

Many people have floated the names of potential suitors with the implications that they could possibly play well along Alexander Semin, possibly being a "Sasha-whisperer" in the vein of Jason Arnott (who really should have just been kept on the team instead of...well, we'll get into that briefly). The problem with that line of thinking is that it assumes two things: 1) That Alex Semin will be with the team after this season, and 2) That Alex Semin will be with the team after Monday afternoon. Semin is the second-highest paid player on the team behind Ovechkin and tied with Backstrom, and is also the highest paid pending-UFA in the entire National Hockey League. In fact, the only soon-to-be free agent with a higher salary is pending-RFA Shea Weber out of Nashville. What this means is that in any trade involving a non-Weber RFA or UFA player, moving Alex Semin automatically frees up the necessary cap space.

Semin has been roughly a point-per-game player since Dale Hunter took over, and quite possibly the team's best player during that stretch as a result. With Semin, though, this is not unexpected. Neither was his lack of production in the waning days of the Boudreau Era. Like it or not, his future with the team is and always has been hazy at best. Signing a center to play alongside him for years to come could be a big mistake if Semin ends up not being in the teams plans after all. The first thing McPhee needs to do is decide how long he intends to keep the "other Alex," and then that should give him an idea of what his options at center are.

If he does decide to keep Semin, salary cap space has to be freed up via salary dumps, a.k.a trading for picks and prospects. To match Semin's salary, several players would have to move. Three players with a salary cap total of $7 million, just $300k more than Semin's hit, were scratched for both of the last two games: RW Mike Knuble and defensemen John Erskine and Roman Hamrlik. The writing on the wall suggests that these are the three that are most likely to move. Erskine being traded is not that surprising, as he has been knocked down to 8th on the depth chart on a good day. Knuble is approaching 40 and has been, for reasons that are unknown and would boggle the mind if they were, relegated primarily to 4th line duty this season and has seen a corresponding dip in offense. Boston and San Jose would love to have him, the former because of his history on the team and the latter to reunite him with Joe Thornton, but really, any team in the league would love to steal him from McPhee, as he immediately makes any team a better team, as long as they give him the top minutes he so clearly deserves and needs. Hamrlik was acquired just this past summer on a two-year deal, and has not lived up to expectations. Recently, he has shown frustration with Hunter, and appears ready to pack his bags at a moment's notice with a smile on his face. One thing all these guys have in common is that they want to play hockey, and they are not playing as much as expected in Washington.

If these players are all moved for picks/prospects, the Semin decision can once again be held off until the offseason, and just about any player can be picked up by 3:00 p.m. Monday, regardless of what GMGM gives back in return. But the Capitals best bet would be to pick up a player who can succeed without Semin as well as with him. What it really comes down to is this: for the next 30 hours or so, Alex Semin is the most important player on the Washington Capitals, and George McPhee needs a damn good crystal ball to figure out why.