Caps Trade Bait

Here fishy fishy... here fishy Feaster.... wait, sorry. We're less than two weeks out from the NHL trade deadline of April 3, and the Caps have made nary a (noteworthy) move. My last post (again, graciously matched by @MikeHolden of BrooksLaichYear.com) focused on why I thought Mike Ribeiro should stay in DC, and touched on the notion of better options to trade. Let's flesh that part out now while there's still time.

I like to think of the trade deadline as trimming the fat off a team. Free agency requires you to make some hard decisions about the future of your team, long and short term. The trade deadline, at least in theory, creates a bit of a frenzy and allows teams to trade off players that are expendable one way or another, but that another team wants. Unless you're completely out of competition and need to rebuild or are so hard up against the cap that salary dumps are imperative for the health and future of your organization, big money moves probably are not what you're looking at as a GM. That's why someone like Ribeiro (pending UFA = no commitment necessary) is way more desired than someone like Bobby Ryan (committing salary and term). More permanent trades tend to be made in the off-season.

The trade deadline is the time to shine for "rental" players. These are the guys who can give a playoff bound, or playoff hopeful, team a boost either by addressing a weakness or doubling down on a strength. These aren't junk players, they're guys with valuable skills. Low-skill players are typically traded around for conditional picks and 7th rounders between teams with injuries or just too much money and free time. Here are four Caps players that I think would be better options to trade than Mike Ribeiro. Not in the sense of the return they'd bring, because probably no Cap would bring back more than Ribeiro, but in the sense that the value that they would bring back would immediately outweigh the sting of their loss.

 

His "Come at me, bro" plan didn't quite work out

• Michal Neuvirth - Braden Holtby had a rough start, but has all but locked down the number one spot in DC. Neuvirth has been unable to establish any kind of consistency, having traded ice time with Jose Theodore, Semyon Varlamov, Tomas Vokoun, and Holtby during his career. He has shown flashes of high-level play, and has established himself as a top-tier backup at worst. His pride has taken a hit, and I would honestly be shocked to see him re-sign in DC as a backup to someone younger than him. Other teams desperately need a goaltender with the youth and passion to compete for a number one spot and be relied on for the future. As a pending RFA, Neuvirth's trade value plummets in free agency, but his current $1.5mil contract is more than palatable to a team like Calgary (which is in desperate need of a top-to-bottom rebuild) or New Jersey (which has an average NHL goalie age of 39.5 and no prospects to speak of). The Caps, meanwhile, have one of the best goalie prospect pools in the league, with Grubauer, Anderson, and even Kostenko down the pipeline. What they lack is a veteran, someone to mentor Holtby. Projected Return: 2nd round pick, or low pick and backup goalie
  



Winner of the team's "Pedobear" award for facial hair

•  Marcus Johansson - MoJo, as he is so often referred to, is too often lacking his nickname. He has seen long stints on each of the top three lines and at each of the forward positions. He tends to get time on both the PK and the PP. For someone like Brooks Laich, this is viewed as versatility. For Johansson, though, it is the result of trying to find his place. We all know he has the skills. What he has yet to find in Washington is the proper role to break out. Plagued by inconsistency in both his level of play and linemates, he has never really seemed to quite fit. He's easily the team's worst center despite insisting that is his natural spot, but he struggles to control the puck along the boards. Yet he has wheels that can lead to breakouts, can execute a wrap-around with the best of 'em, and man is he just frustrating to watch because you know there's just something missing, something not clicking that is keeping him from breaking out. With Forsberg and Wilson likely on the Caps next season, and Kuznetsov possibly joining after the (presumed) Olympic break, MoJo's value to the McPhee as an RFA is worthy of serious scrutiny. A change of scenery could be just what the doctor ordered to help young Marcus finally develop his game and discover his role in the NHL, while allowing the Caps to make room for the other first-round picks. Projected Return: low 2nd or high 3rd round pick, maybe with a mid-level prospect to boot



I make the same gesture when I see him in
the lineup over Wolski these days.

•  Jason Chimera - Chimera had a career year under Dale Hunter, thanks in no small part to the chemistry he found with Brooks Laich, Joel Ward, and Troy Brouwer under a system that spoke to Chimmer's strengths. Hunter hockey isn't Oates hockey, though. Nor is Hunter hockey Boudreau hockey. Speedy #25's stats under Oates are pretty awful, despite seeing time on all three of the top lines and somehow managing to be possibly the only Caps player not to see a demotion (he's always been a 3rd liner, going back to that role from the 1st doesn't count) or the press box. They're not that different from his boxcar stats in the Boudreau years, either. Both now and in the year prior to Hunter's arrival, Chimera was the worst Cap (along with MoJo) in terms of the admittedly-sketchy plus-minus statistic. With Wojtek Wolski on the bench this season, and Tom Wilson itching to make the Caps roster, Chimera is a redundant player on the team both now and in the future in addition to seemingly being a poor fit with the current system and roster. But he does have upside. Again, he had career numbers last year. He has more to him than meets the eye, and the eye shows one of the fastest skaters in the league and grit to go along with it. He has one year remaining at $1.75mil, easily absorbed by any team in the league. He's precisely the kind of player a contender likes, so long as that contender believes the best offense is a good defense (i.e. Ducks need not apply. Blues, though...). Unlike MoJo and Neuvy, moving Chimera has the potential to immediately free up cap space for next year and has far fewer question marks about what he brings to the table. Projected Return: 3rd round pick, combo of lower picks, player-for-player trade



It's not always easy playing hockey, what with
the Crabbs trying to nip at your ankles.

• Joel Ward - Of these four, Joel would likely be the hardest player to move, and is the one I have come to like the most. At the time he was signed as a free agent, McPhee said he overpaid Ward by about 15%. That was after an incredible display in helping Nashville get to the second round of the playoffs for the first time and before the salary cap was going to plummet by almost $6mil. With two years remaining at $3mil apiece, Ward's contract would be hard to eat for most teams. That's not to say he isn't a valuable asset. Oates showcased what Ward could do early on this season. He reversed his trend of seeing his offensive numbers decline in every season he has been in the league. He can play on both sides of special teams and has shown that all-important clutch factor in the post-season. He puts in an honest effort and is rarely seen making mistakes. He is the ideal NHL third liner, and can fill in on the top two lines when needed. Even more than Chimera and MoJo, though, Ward has fallen to redundancy in Washington. Of the team's current right wingers, he is fourth on the depth chart behind Ovi, Brouwer, and Fehr. Recently Ward has been playing on the fourth line as a result. Ward is not going to pass Ovechkin and Brouwer on the depth chart, so his Caps ceiling is the third line. There are cheaper options already in the system that can fill his role without losing much, if anything, in terms of on-ice value. He is still a valuable player, and one that a team in the top-5 for salary space could use without worry. Projected Return: 3rd round pick, combo of lower picks and/or mid-level prospects

To Trade or Not to Trade...

... Ribeiro is the question. The trade deadline is fast approaching, and unless the Caps string together a streak to match the Blackhawks, Penguins, or even the Blue Jackets, there is little doubt that they would fall squarely in the "seller" category come April 1.

All eyes are on Mike Ribeiro, the leading points-getter for the team, top-10 in the league overall and top o' the league in power play points, all at a career-best pace to start a season. He is also a 33 year-old UFA come this offseason, unless he is signed by Washington, likely at a raise on his current $5mil deal. So what comes next? Does McPhee re-sign the best fit at second line (first line?) center the team has seen since Fedorov? Or does he trade Ribeiro to address other holes in the lineup, high pick(s), high-level prospect(s), or some combination of the three?

I fall very firmly in the "re-sign" camp. Mike Holden (along with many others) falls into the "trade" camp. Mike has graciously agreed to a joint post laying out the pros and cons of trading the other Mike out of DC. We take our appropriate positions.

Show Me the Money!

I noted these stats above, but I feel they bear repeating. Mike Ribeiro currently leads the Washington Capitals in points. Mike Ribeiro is tied for 10th in the league in points.  Mike Ribeiro leads the league in power play points. Mike Ribeiro, 33 year old, is scoring at the best rate of his career 28 games into a shortened season, on a new team, with a new coach, with a new system. The same excuses being used by many (myself included) to help take away the sting from this Caps' season apply to Ribeiro as well, and he is thriving like never before. It has been a decade since he scored less than 50 points in a season.  His career worst season was a 16 goal, 51 point effort in 05-06, his last season in Montreal.

Basically, Ribeiro is playing the best hockey of his not-unsuccessful career. It has been pointed out that most NHLers see significant dropoffs in production at Ribeiro's age. Now, I'm not saying that Ribeiro is going to pump out better than a point-per-game for the next five years, but I absolutely expect him to continue at his career pace (~63 points per game) for the next three or so. Some may say I'm naive. But what seems more likely, perhaps the most consistent scorer in the league continuing his career pace until his mid-30s, or his scoring falling from a career-best to a career-worst within three years? I vote the former.

More importantly than prognosticating his scoring ability, what effect would trading Ribeiro have on Washington? The Capitals have been searching for a second line center for years, and now they have one. I repeatedly hear that Washington has a dearth of top-6 forwards. My response is how many top-notch players does a team need? Are Penguins top-liners (yeah, I went there) Pascal Dupuis (twice broke 40 points since 2001) or Chris Kunitz (four full seasons since 2005) top-6 forwards in the minds of Capitals fans? Is (currently injured) a rejuvenated Brooks Laich not? How many have argued for Eric Fehr to be given top-line duties, let alone top-six? Backstrom, Ovechkin, Ribeiro, Fehr, Laich, and Brouwer would be very formidable in this league. That's six players capable of putting up more than 20 goals and 40 points apiece in a full season. I'm not buying the lack of top-6 talent argument.

I'm not saying the Caps forwards are without issue, I just think chemistry and system changes are more responsible. I'd rather move players like Chimera and Johansson, who are skilled but seem to struggle in finding any kind of consistency in either production or team role. As high-end bottom-six players, they can be more easily replaced than Ribeiro. A top-4 defenseman is a more convincing need, but not one that I would want to lose Ribeiro for one with so many promising defenders coming into their own right now (a la Oleksy, Kundratek, and Orlov). In fact, I think the Caps could spare a Chimera or a Johansson, along with a young defender (not Orlov!) to fill a hole elsewhere on the line.

And what would the Caps gain? A first round pick would presumably be in the mix. But that doesn't really help Washington next year, or necessarily even the year after that. Not many teams are likely to have a higher pick than McPhee and his scouts will have to work with come July, and with the new lottery system it's even more of a gamble. How about a high-level prospect? You mean like Grubauer, or Kuznetsov, Wilson, or Forsberg? Or maybe a less-risky version of Galiev or Barber? While a healthy level of depth is near mandatory, Washington really is not in much need of near-future prospects as they literally have some of the best in the world on deck as it is.

The only trade that really makes sense would be to bring back another top-6 forward, maybe someone that could finally lock down the other wing on the top line. I could handle that kind of trade, but you're talking about trading apples for apples. Maybe you don't like our Granny Smith as much as Colorado's Red Delicious, but they're both apples. I prefer the devil you know. Insert similar cliche here.

In short, I think Ribeiro is the answer to a long-standing problem, and trading him would only re-open that gaping wound. I think the complaints of a lack of forward talent are vastly over-stated, and I think there are better moves that could be made without negatively affecting the team to the degree that moving Ribeiro would. All of this assumes that 1) Ribeiro wants to stay in DC and 2) Ribeiro does not want a long term (i.e. > 3 years) for more than $6mil per year. Those are the numbers I would be comfortable with. If he indicates a strong desire to sign anything beyond these terms, by all means, move him for as much as you can get.