Let's Try Something Different

Don't worry, I'm not going to do what everyone thinks I'm gonna do and FLIP OUT, man! At least not yet. Seriously, if you've read like even one post from this season, or more than two hockey tweets of mine, you'd know that I am far more shocked that the Caps season lasted as long as it did rather than ending in the second round. But before I start writing about all the problems and how to address them, I want to point out that there are a number of good things to look forward to for next season. Is that because I think it's a lot easier and quicker to talk about those than the bad stuff? Partially, yeah. Over the next few weeks I will probably have several posts for y'all about my thoughts on this season, individual players, management and coaching strategies, free agency, and of course next season. But for now:

• Let's look at the fact that they did in fact make it to within a goal of the conference finals. Sure, we're all sick of Game 7 losses over the past... well, forever, but they did win their first-ever road game seven. They took out the defending champs. They held damn near even with the top team in the conference, and the rookie goalie matched the almost-certain Vezina winner shot-for-shot.
• Expanding on that: You gotta believe we finally have a franchise goalie, a clear number one in Braden Holtby. Granted, I still think we did with Varlamov, but it is an accepted fact these days that between the coaching, management, and perhaps most importantly, the (lack of) medical care, Varly's future in DC was limited. Holtby was lights out, displaying skills and confidence nearly unseen in rookie goaltenders. If you think Neuvirth should still have any claim on the starting job, despite being the statistically worst goalie to wear a Caps jersey in every single season he has played, then GTFO and go watch another sport, we don't need you here in hockey land. I know this includes a majority of Washington bloggers, but these same people also expected a banner year for the team and think/thought that Fleischmann is a streaky hockey player (he has 82 points in 104 games since being traded).
• The effectiveness of the team's commitment to "defense" (I am still not sure I'd go as far as saying the Caps are an elite defensive squad the way they give up shots and scoring chances) may be questionable at best, but it has showcased the team's talent for shot-blocking. In an ideal world, you don't want to ever have to block a shot, but knowing your guys can and will do so, and do it well, is great going forward.
• Sophomore slumps happen. Just ask John Carlson, and to a lesser extent, Marcus Johansson. On a lot of teams in the league, their seasons wouldn't be considered disappointments. Be grateful that the Caps have a couple young players with such high expectations based fairly on the respective players' skills that an average season is considered a letdown. I have both of them pegged for big comeback seasons.
• Goodbye to Dale Hunter. Last offseason, I was one of the people who was hoping he would in fact be called in to coach in place of Boudreau. I also thought, clearly incorrectly, that a guy with over 3,000 career points would be a bit more offensive minded in his coaching strategy with one of the most offensively talented teams in the league. It didn't take me long to retract my previous hopes and expectations about him, and he left the team almost immediately after Washington was eliminated. This is for the best, and it is a good sign that things will change, yet again.
• Ovechkin showed signs of breaking out of his two season slump. He was scoring at a breakneck pace in the last quarter of the season, and he never really let up on his physical game, either. If nothing else good comes from this season, we do know that Ovechkin can play more defensively than people have given him credit for in the past, that his passion for winning has not diminished, and that his game is a bit more well-rounded than before. That all being said, here's hoping he puts that punk Stamkos in his place next year.
• Chimera had a career season. I had him pegged as the team goat in my season preview, but he proved me wrong. So very wrong. The guy we saw on ice this season was the guy many thought McPhee got from the Blue Jackets a couple seasons ago. Chimera should be a lock for 3rd line left wing for the next couple seasons, and can hopefully continue to build on his surprisingly effective year.
• America. Just thought I'd throw that in there. America is great. Don Cherry isn't from America.
• Players like Jay Beagle are given the opportunity to display their worth in tight games. I still completely disagree with how much he was utilized given his limited skill set, but he showed that the team has a very solid fourth-line center signed and ready to go, and at this point any players that you know are a lock for a specific position are a huge help. Knowing what spots you have filled narrows down the spots in flux and figure out who is expendable elsewhere in the lineup. Kudos to Beags for his strong role playing and helping the team figure out one more piece of the puzzle along the way.
• Stanislav Galiev may not yet be a name you all know. But he will be. He all but made a mockery of those around him in the QMJHL playoffs, and appears slated for a solid Caps training camp next preseason. Do not be surprised if (read: when) he gets a Caps sweater. He is Russian, he scores, and he has a personality. He is already active on twitter (@Galixon_97), and loves to self-promote. In short, he and Ovechkin will get along famously. Not to mention that other young Russian scoring phenom, Kuznetsov, would have someone else over here to convince him to leave the motherland behind in the coming years. Both youngsters have serious top-six potential in their first or second NHL seasons. All hope is not yet lost. It just might be delayed a bit.

Looking at Possible First Round Matchups

So the Caps have clinched a playoff spot with the win over Florida and a Buffalo loss. Now what? Can a team that still has no identity, no set lineup, and is very likely being forced to roll with their AHL goalie tandem due to late injuries have a shot at surviving the first round? Well, as all Capitals fans SHOULD know by now, the NHL playoffs might as well be a whole separate season. Playing styles change, and team matchups matter a lot more when you have to see the same players and coaches for as many as seven games in a row. Adjustments and style adaptations are made more rapidly than the regular season. It helps to have a leg up on the other team to start a series, whether it's a morale issue or your players' strengths simply match up best against the other guys'.

Look back to Montreal for that lesson: the Habs were one of the few teams that Washington struggled against (read: at all) during the 09-10 season. A combination of an unconscious goaltender and incredible shot-blocking by the Canadiens led to an historic upset in the first round. Matchups, people, that's where I'm going with this. In 09-10, the top three seeds in the Eastern Conference lost in the first round, and the 7th and 8th seeds ended up playing to see who would go for the Cup. Nothing is guaranteed, and home ice can mean zilch if another team has your number and knows how to beat you. When it's all said and done, you can really only get one extra game at home, and the advantage is all about whether you win the first two games and crush the visitors' souls in the process. With all that said, before Saturday's plethora of action, here are your possible first round matchups:

• 1st seed Rangers vs. 8th seed Capitals (1-2-0, 70 SF, 93 SA, 9 GF, 10 GA, 12.5 PP%, 91.7 PK%):
  
  Obviously the season series has yet to be decided, but this is your most likely matchup, as it will occur if both Ottawa and Florida get at least one point in their final games. And really, the numbers don't look too bad. Yes, the Caps did lose two of the three games, but despite being outshot by 23, the Rangers have only scored one more goal than our boys in red. The special teams numbers also favor the Caps, and with Backstrom and Green both healthy, the good news there could keep up. Throw in the fact that the Caps defeated the Rangers in five games last year, and seven two years before that, and you begin to see that things are a bit more even than they appear. History absolutely matters in the playoffs. Mental toughness goes a long way, and knowing that a lot of the guys you're playing against were directly responsible for your mid-April tee times two of the past three seasons will weigh on you. The final game of the regular season could just be the beginning of a best-of-eight rather than a best-of-seven. I honestly believe the Caps could win in six games, barring any further injuries to key players.
  
• 2nd seed Bruins vs. 7th seed Capitals (3-1-0, 112 SF, 123 SA, 13 GF, 12 GA, 16.7 PP%, 87.5 PK%):
  
  If the Caps win their last game, the Panthers get a point, and the Senators lose in regulation, this will be your matchup. Despite what I have been seeing for the past 24 hours, I think this is absolutely the best possible matchup for this year's team. The Caps have had Boston's number for years now. Tim Thomas' career numbers against the team may be impressive (14-5-3 with a GAA of 2.46 and a .923 save % in 23 games vs. the Caps; h/t to Japers' Rink for the numbers), but he is 6-4-2 over the last four seasons, including his 3-0-0 record in his record-setting season last year. Our secondary scorers match up very well against this team, most notably Mathieu Perreault, who recorded his first career hat trick against Boston and Thomas in a 5-0 rout. They may be last year's Cup champions, but that doesn't always hold a lot of sway. Again, I think the Caps could win this in six, but having Holtby in net (who I'd still rather have in net any day than the league's 10th-worst goalie in Neuvirth) coupled with the Bruins 7-2-1 record in games 72-81 obviously has me a bit worried. But so does this whole season. Even still, I'd rather see this matchup in the first round rather than...
  
• 3rd seed Capitals vs. 6th seed Devils (1-1-2, 85 SF, 100 SA, 8 GF, 13 GA, 0 PP%, 88.9 PK%):
  
  Should the Capitals defeat the Rangers and Florida loses to Carolina in regulation, the Caps will squeak out another Southeast Division title and claim the third seed in the Eastern Conference. Their opponents in this scenario will be the New Jersey Devils, a team against whom they have their second worst goal differential (Buffalo outscored the Caps by eight goals this season), and have failed to cash in on 14 power play opportunities. They are the only team in the East that the Caps have failed to score a powerplay goal against, although both teams have scored once while shorthanded. Johan Hedburg allowed two goals against on 40 shots in 125 minutes of ice time against DC, and likely starter Martin Brodeur... well, he is Martin Brodeur. Parise is playing for a huge contract in the offseason, and Kovalchuk will want to show up his fellow Russian stars. The Devils got better against the Caps as the season went on, losing the first game 3-1, then winning in two shootouts before shutting out Washington completely 5-0 last month. While this could have the makings of a fantastic playoff series, with the last minute division champs in Washington playing against the highly skilled and well-decorated Devils and Russian superstars as far as the eye can see, not to mention the home ice advantage Washington would enjoy, I have a feeling Ovechkin and company would be breaking out their clubs after just five games. I just do not see a lot of upside to this series. Home ice advantage can be nice, but like I said, it's all about matchups, and this just looks like an ugly one to me.

So, what is a team to do? Jumping up in the standings requires outside help and a win against the top seed, and you have to think that the Rangers would rather face slumping Florida or Ottawa than Washington. The Panthers and Senators are the only teams with double-digit overtime losses in the Eastern Conference playoff picture, and taking longer to lose in the playoffs gets you sent packing just as quickly. In fact, the Caps have more regulation and overtime wins than Florida, Ottawa, and New Jersey. Ottawa plays before the Caps and Rangers, and Florida gets going a half hour after the puck drops at Madison Square Garden. Scoreboard watching will be rampant, and may decide if one or both coaches consider playing their B-squads at some point during the game. Because it's all about matchups, folks.

Shameless plugging time! Before the Caps played the Panthers the other day, I recorded my first-ever podcast with my friend Pamitha for his fantasy sports site The Fantasy Brokers. Nothing says vanity like saying "Hey, listen to me talk for 45 minutes!" So for those of you who want to hear me discuss my blog and thoughts on key players from the 2011-2012 NHL season and what is going on with the Caps, if you have secretly wondered what I sound like on the phone, or if you just want proof that I actually have a friend, check out his site and our podcast.

Last-Minute Trade Deadline Thoughts

The trade deadline, as of the time I am writing this, is roughly 30 hours away. Our boys in red are currently one point out of the playoffs with 20 games to go, and there is no timetable for number one center Nicklas Backstrom's return. With Jeff Carter and Antoine Vermette traded out of Columbus already, the pickings are slim for a top-notch second line center that could also fill in on the first line while Nicky gets healthy. Someone that has both size and offensive prowess, not to mention the ability to win faceoffs and get off some good passes. The big problem is that the Capitals have what amounts to no cap space. They cannot even afford the league minimum salary for a call-up at this point. Good centers that fit the mold above are going to cost somewhere in the range of $3.5-6 million per year.

Many people have floated the names of potential suitors with the implications that they could possibly play well along Alexander Semin, possibly being a "Sasha-whisperer" in the vein of Jason Arnott (who really should have just been kept on the team instead of...well, we'll get into that briefly). The problem with that line of thinking is that it assumes two things: 1) That Alex Semin will be with the team after this season, and 2) That Alex Semin will be with the team after Monday afternoon. Semin is the second-highest paid player on the team behind Ovechkin and tied with Backstrom, and is also the highest paid pending-UFA in the entire National Hockey League. In fact, the only soon-to-be free agent with a higher salary is pending-RFA Shea Weber out of Nashville. What this means is that in any trade involving a non-Weber RFA or UFA player, moving Alex Semin automatically frees up the necessary cap space.

Semin has been roughly a point-per-game player since Dale Hunter took over, and quite possibly the team's best player during that stretch as a result. With Semin, though, this is not unexpected. Neither was his lack of production in the waning days of the Boudreau Era. Like it or not, his future with the team is and always has been hazy at best. Signing a center to play alongside him for years to come could be a big mistake if Semin ends up not being in the teams plans after all. The first thing McPhee needs to do is decide how long he intends to keep the "other Alex," and then that should give him an idea of what his options at center are.

If he does decide to keep Semin, salary cap space has to be freed up via salary dumps, a.k.a trading for picks and prospects. To match Semin's salary, several players would have to move. Three players with a salary cap total of $7 million, just $300k more than Semin's hit, were scratched for both of the last two games: RW Mike Knuble and defensemen John Erskine and Roman Hamrlik. The writing on the wall suggests that these are the three that are most likely to move. Erskine being traded is not that surprising, as he has been knocked down to 8th on the depth chart on a good day. Knuble is approaching 40 and has been, for reasons that are unknown and would boggle the mind if they were, relegated primarily to 4th line duty this season and has seen a corresponding dip in offense. Boston and San Jose would love to have him, the former because of his history on the team and the latter to reunite him with Joe Thornton, but really, any team in the league would love to steal him from McPhee, as he immediately makes any team a better team, as long as they give him the top minutes he so clearly deserves and needs. Hamrlik was acquired just this past summer on a two-year deal, and has not lived up to expectations. Recently, he has shown frustration with Hunter, and appears ready to pack his bags at a moment's notice with a smile on his face. One thing all these guys have in common is that they want to play hockey, and they are not playing as much as expected in Washington.

If these players are all moved for picks/prospects, the Semin decision can once again be held off until the offseason, and just about any player can be picked up by 3:00 p.m. Monday, regardless of what GMGM gives back in return. But the Capitals best bet would be to pick up a player who can succeed without Semin as well as with him. What it really comes down to is this: for the next 30 hours or so, Alex Semin is the most important player on the Washington Capitals, and George McPhee needs a damn good crystal ball to figure out why.

Caps Midseason Review

As of the 1-0 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Capitals have played 41 out of their 82 regular season games. Halfway mark seems like a good place for a midseason review, eh? Get ready, it's a long one:

Yeah, it has a few smudges, but so does this season.

• Let's jump into it: The Caps are precisely where I expected them to be, currently sitting at 8th place in the Eastern Conference, a record of 22-17-2, barely ahead of third in their division, a team with more talent than most but lacking an identity. The boys in red have been trying to find the identity they lost back in 2009 during the Montreal playoff series. Through strategy and coaching changes, we have seen the offensive juggernaut from Boudreau's early days all but disappear in an effort to "play the right way." In my opinion, which has not truthfully changed much in over a year, the ability and motivation is there, but the management is not. McPhee has not made the necessary adjustments in personnel, and neither Boudreau nor Hunter have utilized players in quite the right way. The team is almost there, playing more physical and being more defensively responsible, but it's almost to a fault now, as it appears to have come at the expense of the offense that this team was drafted and molded to produce during most of McPhee's tenure as GM. Over 41 games, we've seen a blurry picture become more clear: this is a team that will try to break the other team physically, but with the responsibility to do it cleanly and consistently. Whether this is a team that will also seek to break minds along with bodies by scoring more goals is to be seen, because the talent to do so is there and somehow needs to be unleashed.
• Every guy on the team not named Jason Chimera needs to score more goals. The physicality and defense under Hunter have largely been acceptable, if not consistently superb. The goaltending from Vokoun has largely been admirable, if not consistently superb. The offense has largely been absent. Granted, this is a problem that is somehow plaguing other teams, too. Anaheim boasts the incredible trio of Getzlaf, Perry, and Ryan, not to mention Selanne, yet they are barely ahead of Columbus for the league's worst team. Columbus, too, sports a fairly impressive roster in terms of past offense, but they can't buy a win. In fact, only 11 out of 30 teams currently sport a positive goal differential. The Caps are tied with the Ottawa Senators (who have played a league-high 45 games along with four other teams) for 12th with a -1 differential. With guys like Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom, Laich, Knuble, and Johansson, they need to be on the positive side of things.
• And then there are the injuries.

  

  Look, nobody said this season would be easy.
  Wait, they did? Oh. Well... now it isn't.

  Really, the Caps haven't had to deal with too many injuries this season, aside from Mike Green. Backstrom likely has a concussion to deal with after taking a nasty elbow from the new-Canadien Rene Bourque, and Tom Poti may actually be in a cellar marked "LTIR," but that's pretty much it. Yes, Jay Beagle has missed almost the whole season to date with a concussion of his own, but he was hardly expected to make an impact on the team this year. When your projected injury fill-in gets injured, there simply is not a lot to be said other than well wishes and welcome-backs. Still, it is hard to blame a lot of the struggles simply on missing one player, even if it is someone with Green's talent. He missed a lot of last season, too, but the team managed to take first in the conference anyway.
• Varlamov, on the other hand, has played in more games this season for the Colorado Avalanche than he did in either of his two full seasons with Washington. His numbers aren't as spectacular as they were in DC, but he has won 4 of his last 5 with a .933 SV%, 1.8 GAA, and a shutout. Of note in terms of the Caps is that he has not been injured for a significant period of time this season, if at all, despite his designation as chronically injured with a weak groin. Given Green and Poti's current statuses, Varly's problems here, and former Caps Captain Chris Clark (how's that for alliteration?) missing the majority of his final three seasons in DC, all due to groin injuries, maybe the problem lies not with the individual players, but rather with the ice, medical staff, or both. Either that or "groin injury" means in DC what "lower body injury" means for most other teams: absolutely nothing.
• Empty net goals are not something a team should rely on, and only come when your team has a lead in a close game, but they are still nice to have. Through 41 games, the Caps have only two of the "cheap" goals, good for second worst in the league. Chicago (2nd in the West, 4th in the league) leads the league with eight empty netters. Where the Caps do lead during 4-on-4, with a league-high nine goals for in those situations, while allowing four. Maybe someone should just take a slashing minor if it looks like a powerplay isn't going to go well...
• Colorado is the Western Conference team to watch for most fans interested in the Capitals' future, given that Washington holds their 2012 1st round pick and either the 2012 or 2013 2nd round pick. So where are they? Ninth in the West, with two more points and four more games played than the Caps. That lottery pick is looking a little unlikely now, eh? At least Troy Brouwer has quietly put together a solid season, leading the team in hits and chipping in 11 goals to date.
• Orlov did not make the team out of camp, but looks to have earned a permanent spot on the roster. He has unbelievable puck-handling skills, hits much harder than one would expect from a rookie of his size, and has been nothing less than an excellent addition to the team's defensive corps this season. He still makes some rookie mistakes, but he continues to adapt to the NHL game beautifully, and I expect he will look like a true pro by the time I am writing a full season review.
• Mathieu Perreault, on the other hand, did make the team out of camp because he played better than just about everyone, but nobody seems to have told the coaches. He has seen a team-low time-on-ice average (for players with 20+ games) of 9:03. Cody Eakin, who Perreault theoretically beat out for a spot on the roster, has played in 20 games with an average of 9:51. That is the kind of ice time one would expect a low-level grinder or fighter to get. Matt Hendricks, another of my favorite guys, is one of those fighters, leading the team in PIMs at 47. He gets an average of 35 seconds per game more than Perreault. MP85 has also vastly improved in faceoffs with a season average of 49%, which seems lightyears ahead of second line center Marcus Johansson's 43%. I'm not surprised to see him on a line with Mike Knuble. I am surprised that it is the fourth line, as both guys should be higher up in the depth chart. I think that Perreault deserves a promotion in the lineup, but it doesn't seem to be in the cards.
• McPhee was considered a genius by most back in July. Now there is some wonder as to whether he is going to keep his job after this season. He decided to keep Boudreau after last season only to fire the guy a quarter of the way into the season, bringing in someone else with no NHL coaching experience. The team is lacking a solid second line center after years of needNearly all the team's money has been spent. If the season ended today, the Caps would be using their own pick ahead of Colorado's. The team has been inconsistent and floundering, and has completely abandoned the identity so carefully constructed through years of drafting and trading. Three first round picks were traded away in the offseason: the 2010 pick, Varlamov, and Eric Fehr. No significant moves have been made since July. GMGM has to pass two big tests this season if he wants to keep his job: the trade deadline in 45 days, and the playoffs. If he is not able to pull off some masterful work before March, and then at least see the Capitals make it to the conference finals, Leonsis may finally have to bring in someone else. Because as it stands, this is no longer McPhee's team. This is a team that McPhee has largely brought in from the outside to fix what he thought were problems. The problem is that those problems were mostly overreactions and falsehoods, and now there are real issues at hand.
• Every game this season seems to have led the fans to question whether that particular game was representative of the team. Whether it was the 7th straight win, the 5th straight loss, or the first road win, we as fans have read a lot into each point that the team has earned or lost. Many Caps coaches, too, seem to do the same thing. Unfortunately, overanalyzing based on miniscule data sets is what bloggers and sports analysts are supposed to do, while the coaches are supposed to look at the big picture. Thankfully, whether or not you are a fan of his standard lineup (I am not, if you have any doubts by this point), Dale Hunter has been doing at least one thing right by letting the lines mesh for a few games before switching out one or two players. He seems to understand that this is a skilled roster that will not have the same sorts of lines that other teams, or even that he as a coach, typically have. Typically gone are the days of multiple line moves in a period, and that is one thing to look forward to for the second half: chemistry.



I think this is how lower body injuries happen...

• Nobody saw any of this coming once the season began. I even wrote a post saying I was wrong, that Boudreau was doing well, and that a lot of the demons had been exorcised. Well, I was wrong about being wrong. I was right. Boudreau obviously was unable to coach the team anymore, and he is gone as a result. The Capitals, in retrospect, really were winning those seven straight games as much because of scheduling and facing backup goaltenders as because of skill. The playoffs are the current goal, not the Cup. Thankfully, Alex Ovechkin has started to shake off the rust and play like his old self again. He is hitting hard, he is shooting more, and he has been scoring. In fact, he has been playing better than his old self in a lot of ways. He has been less selfish with the puck. He has played with fire when the rest of the team wants to quit. He has even been blocking shots and backchecking. Let no one question Ovechkin this year. A lot may be wrong, but it's not on the captain. Backstrom, too, has continued to play to old form. Dennis Wideman is playing some of his best hockey, and Jason Chimera is having a career year. There's a lot of good going on with this team, and every night it feels like they're going to turn the corner. We're halfway through. There aren't a whole lot of corners left. It's time to see what they can do.
• Trade talks are sure to be on fire right about now in McPhee's office. Jeff Schultz has a decent sized contract, is a very capable defenseman, and has barely played under Dale Hunter. Given Orlov's promotion ahead of him on the depth chart and the shocking callup of recently acquired prospect d-man Tomas Kundratek, Schultz appears to have lost his spot on the team. I don't think it's because Sarge lacks skill. I do think it is because he lacks physicality, and that is no longer an option on this team, even for guys who aren't listed as 6'6" and 230 lbs. As evidenced by the 19 teams with a negative goal differential, plenty of teams need a top-4 defenseman. It's only a matter of time folks. Expect a salary dump here. The Caps have less than a mil in cap space and are STILL lacking a legitimate second line center, and they cost money. I'm thinking Schultz moves for a pick or two to a bottom-15 team. He won't be the only guy gone by the trade deadline, he is just the most likely.
• So I took a page from the book over at Japers Rink, and I encourage you to read the bullet points vertically, and then do what I tell you after that. Give me a reason to update this more often!

Avs-Caps Recap and Thoughts on Value

As life becomes more hectic, posts become more sporadic. But after a (very) brief back and forth with Neil Greenberg (@ngreenberg, probably the best guy to follow for Caps stats) about Schultz's role on the team and trading, I felt compelled to say a bit more here.

For those of you who do not know, the Capitals lost to Colorado tonight 2-1. A couple quick thoughts on this before moving on to the rest:

• 

  McLeod, MacLeod, same dif. The point is, there can be only
  one (goal like that ever again or else I will get a sword and...)
  

  A lot of bloggers, fans, and game announcers called the first goal of the game, scored by the Avs' Cody McLeod from about five feet past the blue line, "fluky." I call it "Neuvirth needs to get his ass outta his head." (It's still ok to quote Boudreau and his staff, right?) That was pathetic, and if he had been paying any attention, maybe he would have put his glove up during the time it took that lob pass to make it him rather than waiting until it over his shoulder. A fluky goal banks off three players or a divot in the ice. That was a crap goal against a guy who has looked like little more than a crap goalie this season.
• Glad to see Semin scored tonight, but it is unbelievable that it was only his sixth of the season. That puts him on a 16-17 goal pace. I cannot say enough times that I think Johansson is the wrong guy to center Sasha. Not a knock on MoJo, who I have generally been impressed with this season, but just looking at the reality that something is wrong here, and realizing that you can't force a pair or trio of players to be successful if their skillsets and styles simply do not mesh.
• Knuble on the fourth line? Halpern playing wing on the second line? Halpern is a skilled guy. Knuble can grind it out with the best of them. But they don't belong where Hunter has put them recently. Neither has done poorly, mind you, but the team as a whole is not performing. The Avalanche and Jets are absolutely lesser teams that the Capitals should DOMINATE (yes, in capitals), not score a goal against in close, grinding games. Put the guys where they belong, where they have had success, and see that success return. Knuble belongs on the top line with Ovi and Backstrom. Halpern belongs on the fourth line centering Hendricks and another player. Play with the rest of the lineup as needed, but those five should be set in stone if you ask me, which I am assuming you did.

Ok, so what to do? The team, on paper, is a top-notch group of guys that should have no problem winning a cup. There are rookies and veterans, snipers and grinders, role players and elite talent. Our starting goalie is (was?) tied for the league lead in save percentage since the lockout. Leonsis has like ten dollars left to spend under the salary cap. Bruce Boudreau was fired when things took yet another turn. All the stops have supposedly been pulled out to win a Cup, and it has been the team's worst season in four years. A trade seems likely if nothing changes in the next week or two, but the way the team has performed, who would net anything of value?

The funny thing about value is that it's relative. There are a number of trades that appear to be "bad trades," but at the time they involved moving a player who simply did not work out with teammates, coaches, or both. I think that the Fleischmann trade was absolutely awful, for example, but Boudreau was clearly not going to give Flash the consistency and ice time that he needed to succeed. A point-per-game player for the Avs/Panthers and a useless bust of a defenseman for the Caps later, and it looks even worse. When a coach handicaps a player, or the talent on a team is such that a guy cannot be unleashed or properly utilized, it is probably best to move him sooner rather than later.

As bad as the team's record is, the fact remains that there is a lot of talent and a lot of money at all positions. I say move Jeff Schultz is the guy to move. I actually kind of like Schultz, and I think he can be a good d-man when he is paired with the right guy and the right system. But he has probably had one of the worst times adjusting to style changes since the Montreal series and last season's losing streak. Coach Hunter has benched him the past couple games in favor of (inferior player) John Erskine and (budding stud) rookie Dmitri Orlov. Mike Green isn't even in the lineup, and when he returns, someone else will have to be scratched or sent down to Hershey. Schultz also carries a not-insignificant cap hit of $2.75 million. Trading him for a draft pick simplifies a crowded blueline, frees up cap space, and hopefully gets Schultz some more NHL ice time. He has spent a lot of time on the top line with Mike Green during his stay in Washington, and he could fit in that role on a lot of other NHL teams. If he is not going to be used here, or if the style of play has changed so much that he is no longer a comfortable fit, I think it is best to move him now to help the team and help his career. Schultz's value in DC may have dropped as a result of the changes made over the last year, but he is still a valuable player in the league and should be able to net some decent value in terms of a second round draft pick and maybe a late round pick or prospect in a year that is supposed to have a strong draft.

Semin has been the name floated around in most rumors, and a year ago it made sense. When McPhee made the bone-headed move of giving him $6.7 million for this season, he skyrocketed Semin's face value. Any team looking to sign him has to determine if he is worth that much money while giving up something of value to the Capitals. At his current pace and level of play, he is not worth the money. That means that the Caps would not get $6.7 of value back in a trade, and would essentially be sending away a guy that has all the skill in the world, if not the desire, for someone that very likely does not have either. Not worth it for the team.

Then you have one of my favorite players: Mathieu Perreault. Perreault is a guy who is probably undervalued by the Capitals, and apparently especially by Hunter. His ice time has been absolutely pathetic, especially since Boudreau left. On a night when Cody Eakin was benched and Matt Hendricks had to sit five minutes for a fight, Perreault saw his lowest total ice time of the season, playing a measly 3:14, last on the team behind Hendy's 3:49. You better believe that there is a team out there aching for a young, hardworking forward that is in the top three for goals- and points-per-sixty minutes on his team. You also better believe that the Capitals would only get back in return what they value him at, and not what the other team would. However, much like Fleischmann, he would benefit greatly in his personal life if he was to be traded because he would surely see more ice time and greater development. But because he has the second-lowest cap hit of any forward on the team, and only if you include Jay Beagle, and because he would net very little in return, trading MP85 would be a pretty stupid move.

All of the players have fans, and all of them have value. They will not all be here when the trade deadline rolls around. Hopefully McPhee bucks his past trends of lousy trades and figures out how to properly judge value on the team under Hunter, and is able to extract the same or greater value from another GM. My vote is for Schultz, and to a lesser extent Erskine, who is a guy I think fits in between Sarge and Perreault on my makeshift value scale. Who is yours?

Early Thoughts on Realignment

It has been reported on Twitter tonight that the NHL Board of Governors has agreed on a four-conference realignment to being next season. Here are your new conferences:

Conference 1: Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Los Angeles, San Jose, Anaheim, Colorado, Phoenix
Conference 2: Winnipeg, Detroit, Chicago, St. Louis, Nashville, Columbus, Dallas, Minnestoa
Conference 3: Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, Boston, Buffalo, Florida, Tampa Bay
Conference 4: Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, NY Rangers, NY Islanders, New Jersey, Carolina, Washington

Let me start off by saying that I am not a fan of the four conference/division split solely because it will require an overhaul of the current NHL playoff format, and the Stanley Cup Playoffs is probably the best playoff series in sports today. That being said, a lot of this makes sense. A lot does not. Conference 1 makes the most sense, keeps the west coast teams together, and really spreads out the travel requirements pretty evenly. I have issues with the rest. I would like to say that just swapping Columbus and Carolina would make a lot of sense, but that ignores Conference 3. I don't know what map they were looking at during the meetings, but having both Florida teams in a conference with three Canadian teams and two New England teams seems off. Here is how I would attempt to create a bit more common sense:

Conference 1: As is
Conference 2: Winnipeg, Detroit, Chicago, St. Louis, Dallas, Minnesota, Dallas
Conference 3: Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, Boston, Buffalo, Columbus, NY Rangers
Conference 4: Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, NY Islanders, New Jersey, Carolina, Washington, Tampa Bay, Florida

You still end up with two 8-team and two 7-team conferences, but the travel schedules make a little bit more sense. Dallas will have one less northern city to travel to by removing Columbus. The Rangers are reunited with three of the other Original Six teams, and Columbus is in a conference that makes a lot more geographic sense. Conference 4 essentially becomes a mash-up of the Atlantic and Southeast conferences, building on some already fairly strong rivalries and requiring a good bit less travel for the Florida teams. If the NHL is going to embrace some radical changes, let's try to make those changes work for everyone.

Old is new all over again.

Either way, in terms of the Caps, more games against the Penguins and Flyers means more fire for the rekindling of old Patrick Division rivalries. Really, I think Capitals fans might get the best end of the stick out of anyone in this realignment, as the Conference 4 teams feature a lot of rivalries, top-notch teams, and budding young talent. It will certainly be an exciting year for mid-Atlantic puckheads, that's for sure.

A lot of teams will be helped by the ratings, especially the southern teams and Columbus. Dallas, too, gets a bit of a break by being away from the Pacific Division teams. I would love to hear people's thoughts on this. To date, I have not had a single comment on any of my posts, and I think this one is prime fodder for a little debate amongst my few readers. So, comment away!

Cap - Pens Recap, 12/1/11

Been a minute since I wrote a recap, but I had to make sure to write one for this game. First time Crosby has led the Penguins against the Capitals in 11 months, and new head coach Dale Hunter has had a few days with the team to try and prepare them. Before I dive into my thoughts on the game, though, I just want to say congratulations to Bruce Boudreau on landing that coaching gig in Anaheim already. I was admittedly surprised he got the call so soon, and that he got the job the same night that the Ducks won a game, but I fully expected Anaheim to be his new home by the end of this year. As much as I ragged on him and called for him to be fired, I was still a little sad to see him go. After all, the team was its most successful in its history, let alone since my childhood, under his watch. Caps-Ducks games were my favorite ones to watch these past couple seasons, and I can only hope for a Stanley Cup matchup this year. I expect Gabby to be a great fit with the team and that they will have a lot of success together. Kudos to Bruce, good luck to him and his family as they adjust to a whole new part of the country, and hopefully we'll see him at Verizon Center before the start of the next season. Now, here are my five thoughts on tonight's game:

Soooo I go over there, skate left, then to the middle, and shoot?

• As a certain Great One said: "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take." That was the story of the night for our boys in red, being held to a season-low 17 shots on goal, with only two of them in the third period. Hunter has his work cut out for him, because this kind of crap has been going on for far too long now with a team that features Alexes Ovechkin and Semin, Nick Backstrom, John Carlson, Mike Knuble, Brooks Laich, and Marcus Johansson. We get it, you all miss Mike Green and he is a big part of getting the offense going. But he is not that big a part of the team that these guys can't even get shots on the net. Completely unacceptable, and I am sure that our new blue-suited coach will address it quite loudly in practice.
• On the

  

  I know this photo is overused, but it is just so good...
  

  flip side of things, the Penguins were credited with 35 shots on goal, scoring on only two of them. Tonight, Vokoun looked like the goalie we all know him to be. Part of that was the all-around defensive play of the team, as the majority of those shots were low percentage chances from the outside. Crosby had 3 shots, Malkin had 7, neither had any points and Crosby even finished a -1. For about 90% of the night, I'd say stellar job limiting Pittsburgh's chances.
• As has been the case with many a Washington team, the Capitals seem unable to catch a break, and seemingly must pay for every mistake made. Other teams have the occasional defensive breakdown or imperfect play and don't get scored on, but not our Caps. Both goals against came as a result of poor play by the guys in front of Vokoun. On goal #1, Vokes had no chance of making the save, because he played the puck and players perfectly. Schultz, on the other hand, has to stop that puck from getting across the crease, and Orlov has to be in tighter on his man under Dale Hunter's system. Schultz is cementing the idea that his +50 season was one of the all-time flukes in recent NHL memory, and is a prime candidate to ride the pine pony when Green returns. On the second goal, Eakin has to keep from turning over the puck, Johansson has to prevent Kennedy from keeping the puck and getting around him, and Erskine has to do better at being the last line of defense on what was essentially a 1-on-3. Carlson was not totally without blame, as he could have come in more, and Vokoun proooobably should have stopped that one, but it never should have progressed as far as it did in the first place.
• Hits, hits, hits. Holy crap were there some hits. Hunter is making his influence known, as the Caps threw around their big bodies to the tune of 43 hits tonight. Ovechkin in particular was laying people out, looking a bit more like his old self in terms of physicality and speed. Washington has a lot of big players, and may be one of the biggest teams in the league. If they can keep this intimidating style of play up and rekindle their scoring touch, I will feel a lot better about this team.
• I love

  

  Woooo! Who would have thought I'd be the go-to guy for goals?!

  being proven wrong about this team, mostly because I am such a pessimist when it comes to the Caps. Chimera, along with his linemates, has been an absolute joy to watch this season. A team-leading (!!??!?) 10 goals after tonight, the work of blazing speed and hard workalong the boards. This is the guy McPhee thought he was signing two years ago, and the work that Laich and Ward have done on what has to be the most expensive third line in the NHL is just great. All three are shutting down the opposition and adding crucial offense. This was the best thing that Boudreau left behind, and may be the only part of the forward lines that does not need to be touched. Congrats on reaching last year's goal total in just over 1/4 the time, Chimmer, and keep up the good work, Meat-n-Potatoes line.
• BONUS THOUGHT! I love the youth and depth that Washington has, and the three guys I am keeping an eye on are Cody Eakin, Mathieu Perreault, and Dimitri Orlov. Orlov has looked incredible for a kid playing in his first handful of NHL games, absolutely embarrassing a few guys with his stick handling and hits. He has made some rookie mistakes, but overall I like his play a lot more than I like Schultz or Erskine's, or even Hamrlik's right now. I hope to see a few more games with him in the lineup, but as of right now I kind of hope he is here for good. Eakin, on the other hand, impressed early but has faltered as of late. He has gotten a much better shot at this lineup than Perreault has, despite starting the year off in Hershey. His ice time has gone up and he has played on the second line more often than not, but he looks as though he may just not be ready for the big time, even if he is on the cusp. A year with the Bears would do him a lot of good, and I think the organization would be better served by making that move sooner rather than later. Perreault has always been one of my favorite guys to watch, as he can be very speedy and tricky as the team's smallest player. Unfortunately, he just has not been given a consistent shot at staying in DC, all the while being attacked for his perceived "inconsistency." I have been saying this since he first got back-to-back healthy scratches, but how many other fourth liners set a 40-point pace? Halpern and Hendricks have suffered without him on their line, and the team as a whole has done a lot worse without him than with. If I am not mistaken (and correct me if I am), but he was the last player to be on ice for a goal against on the team. I hope he gets ice time and has the opportunity to show Hunter what he can do, but if not I hope he demands a trade as he absolutely should be playing in the NHL right now. 

Tonight marked the first time since before Dan Bylsma started coaching the Pens that Washington lost to Pittsburgh in regulation, but it had to come sometime. Two-thirds of the team's game seemed to be there, with very solid goaltending and a consistent and physical defensive effort. Nobody expected Hunter to turn this team around immediately, but back-to-back 2-1 losses show some early returns. Add in some offense, and the fans can breathe a little easier, not to mention McPhee. Looking forward to what you can do, Dale.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Well I had planned to make my return with a recap of last night's game. Finally switched TV carriers so now I can actually watch all the games, and DVR them in situations where I am not able to be home, like last night. I made it through the first two periods of my own personal re-broadcast, and just couldn't bear to finish. While I honestly do not think the team as a whole played as bad as everyone says they did through those first two, it certainly was not what you want to see. Gustavsson made some huge saves with the Caps on the PP, and a lot of the goals came down to all-around awful play by Schultz, Erskine looking totally lost/being slow/screening the goalie, and a rare piss-poor performance from Backstrom in his own end. The rest of the team has had better games and worse games, but I think the loss can pretty much be pinned on those three. Big picture, though, this is the seventh regulation loss in 11 games since going 7-0-0, and fourth straight loss for the team. Washington currently sits at 8th in the Eastern Conference, thanks to holding a couple tiebreakers with the New Jersey Devils, who are in ninth with the same 10-7-1 record. Something needs to change, but what?

As I, Steven Hindle, and others pointed out early on, that winning streak was really masking a plethora of issues facing the team. Some fans may still be deluding themselves into believing that the past 11 games are the anomalous ones of the season and that it is all still just some bad luck and injuries, but the real truth of it is more likely that the first seven games were the anomaly and a factor of good luck and other teams' injuries. Some people may recognize my twitter handle as the one claiming on July 1 that he would take $20 dollar bets that the Caps wouldn't finish above 7th in the Conference so long as Boudreau was coaching and no other big changes were made. That was before the Vokoun signing, granted, and that certainly was a big move that changed things in my eyes. But apparently not enough. So what are the big issues the team is facing, and what errors have Boudreau and McPhee made? Well since you're here, I'm assuming you care what my thoughts are on those matters, so here they are:

• 

  Much better by the Comcast sign than by the faceoff dot.
  

  First things first, let me say that I was at least half-wrong about Johansson coming into this season. I am very impressed with his overall play, and I think he may become a legitimately consistent scoring threat over the course of the season. I was practically screaming on Twitter and Facebook, and literally in my apartment, for him to be sent down to Hershey last year just so he could develop and prepare for this season without being a liability. I refuse to join the cavalcade of the deluded who think that he had anything better than a mediocre rookie outing, but consider me a converted fan of his this year. All that being said, Boudreau is still using him absolutely wrong. I really don't care what his scouting report said, he is not defensively-minded or skilled enough to play on the PK, or to center one of the top two lines. Aside from the much-talked about beauty of a pass to Brouwer in one game, he has proved a relatively ineffective setup man, and I think that is the real reason that Semin has struggled so mightily to score this year. In no rational human being's mind is he anywhere approaching the talent of his countryman Backstrom, and as such MoJo should never even sniff the first line. He's good, but not that good. He is also a lousy center. His faceoff wins have been a little better as of late, but he is still worst on the team. He plays and skates like a winger, just put him there. The real success for him will come when Boudreau stops trying to play him as a top-two center and he is allowed to focus more on using his breakout speed down the boards.
• Cody Eakin is obviously a skilled player, and I am overjoyed to have him in the Capitals organization, and I want him on the team... in 2012-2013. He has played well enough in his few games, and I will not bash him as a player, but his presence on the team is a symptom of greater issues. Boudreau and McPhee both seem to have their favorite players, and their players who will always be in the doghouse. One of the most polarizing players in years past was Tomas Fleischmann, and he has been nearly a point-per-game player since being traded after being shuffled around the lineup and benched repeatedly by Boudreau. I expect a healthy Eric Fehr to be a similar player later on this season. I point them out because they are highly skilled players that saw moderate success in Washington, but still got shuffled around and bad ice time. The Caps seem insistent on solving problems that don't exist while ignoring the most glaring issues. Mathieu Perreault has done all that has been asked of him this season. He is scoring .5 points per game while averaging only 10 minutes of ice time on the fourth line. Put that in perspective: when was the last time the Capitals had a 40+ point scorer on the fourth line? Cody Eakin has taken Perreault's spot on the roster in that Perreault is benched, but the real demotion went to Mike Knuble,a perennial 20-goal scorer. Eakin has primarily played on the second line alongside Johansson and Semin,getting roughly the same number of minutes that Perreault got.

  

  Cody Eakin takes "Rock the Red" waaaaay too seriously.
  

  His PPG is also clocking in at one every other game, but with more assists and with a better spot on the roster. There is absolutely no reason for Perreault to be sitting on the bench, and there is even less reason for the Capitals to start any rookies this year. It's time to win, not time to train new guys for NHL play. Do it next year when you have to clear up cap space. Eakin, Galiev, Kuznetsov, and Orlov are shining stars for the future, but let's keep the focus for the team on the present. McPhee and Boudreau need to grasp that lesson before the team can progress further. They've done a good job of laying the groundwork for future success, but now is the time to focus on this season.
• The line-shuffling has to stop. If Boudreau wants to keep his job, he needs to do less, not more. I have been saying this for over a year, and the call from other fans is growing louder, too. Look around the league, what other championship caliber teams are throwing out 20 different line combinations a night? Just because the team is losing, or because a line has a bad shift or even a bad couple of games, does not mean that things are not working. It is still mind-boggling that Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Knuble were broken up this year. If Boudreau did not have faith that Knuble could carry his own in a contract year, then he should have gone to McPhee and told him to shop the big guy around. Brouwer and Ward are not replacements for Knuble on the top line. Brouwer just is not the crease presence that Knuble is, and it is a shame that Ovechkin has had to try and take that job on for himself. Stick to what works more often than not, Bruce. 8-19-22 has been one of the league's best lines for a couple seasons, don't fix what ain't broke. Some say that Boudreau is being a hard-liner and a tactician with his lineups, I say he is panicking. He does not seem to know how to handle loss. I've read a lot that the players do not know how to handle adversity - I think it's the coach that can't deal. This lineup, on paper, is filled with some of the best talent the league has to offer, some of the fastest skaters, hardest grinders, best scorers, solid defensemen, and quality goaltending. But when a player doesn't know who is going to be on his left side next game or next period, or even that he will still be playing on the right side, it will cause issues. Carlson and Alzner embody this more than most, and especially Carlson. Alzner pretty much always knows what his job is and where to be as a shutdown guy, but the big reason these two are so successful together is that they have almost always played alongside each other. They know where the other guy will be without asking, without looking, and they feel confident. The big word this season has been accountability, and it needs to be dropped. Forget accountability, this team needs consistency. A consistent coaching style, a consistent lineup. Changes can/will/should be made from time to time, but with a team this good, only after several games of ineptitude, not a shift where they allow a goal because of one mistake. McPhee added a lot of new pieces this year, and shipped out familiar ones, give the guys time to adjust, and success will come.
• Let Ovi be Ovi, but help him grow, too. Ovechkin is not a 19-minutes-or-less talent. Players don't get better by playing less. As Ovi would say: "Nobody ever got better at hockey by bowling. More practice for you." I am not saying he should be playing 26 minutes a game, but 22 sure sounds about right. When you want to win, you want your best guys playing and working the other team. Ovechkin is not going to score more, or be more defensive, or any of that other stuff by getting five or more fewer shifts a game. Make him work for it, though. I'm a big fan of putting him on the penalty kill. Want his defensive and two-way game to get better? Put him in the situations where it matters most. There are no questions about whether this

  

  Sasha Smiles all around! Let's see some more moments like this.
  

  Russian Alex cares, we all know he does. Give him more five-on-five time, and throw him in for a few PK shifts a game. Playing a guy like him less just makes him more anxious, gives him more time to get into his own head about scoring, and pushes his focus into one area of hisgame. I guarantee you he does not get benched and think to himself "Ok, next shift I won't try to score and instead I'll create an open lane for Jason Chimera to skate through." If Ovechkin is not put into situations where he has to be defensive minded, he will not have to grow in that area of his game. Boudreau, more than Ovi himself, is pigeon-holing the captain into one role. Get and keep him off the point on the PP, give him some PK time, and never ever split him and Backstrom up at 5-on-5 play. Give the guy some room to breathe and he will bounce back and mature.
• As for McPhee: make a trade or two when you can. Right now, McPhee has absolutely screwed himself and the team. Semin never should have gotten $6.7 million for this season, Erskine should never have gotten an extension, and Schultz should never have gotten as much money as he did. Now, when the team may need to make an early trade most, they are unable to do so. No team is going to want to give up a top defenseman (which I honestly do not think the team needs right now) or a top-two center (which I think the team desperately requires) for an underperforming penalty-taking machine with character issues like Semin, especially at that price. Erskine is at best a number six defenseman on a good team, and still can't crack the top four on a basement-level squad. Right now, he is still the team's best shot at a trade because he has not gotten much better or worse in the past year, and because the team has other players to fill his spot. Problem is that he will not yield much in return. But if McPhee can trade him away sooner rather than later for a 4th or 5th round pick, that'll free up some cap space, and maybe Schultz can be moved with a pick for an upgrade at the blue line, assuming Sarge ever picks up his game a bit. Then again, if Sarge picks up his game, the team should not need to move him or add another d-man. Carlson, Alzner, Green, Wideman, Hamrlik, and Schultz should be more than enough talent to put together a responsible defensive corps, but moving Erskine should still be a top priority if only to free up another $1.5 mil in cap space. Down the line, if Semin picks up his game, trade him away for a top centerman. Ideally, I'd say look to Columbus and Jeff Carter. He cannot be happy there and would surely be happy to waive his no-trade clause, they need a scorer, and his style of play would fit in perfectly on the Capitals second line. In a fantasy world, this trade is great on paper, but I know it will never happen.

What does this all mean, then? In my humble (Not-so-humble? Arrogant, even? You decide.) opinion, give Boudreau one more month. If he can turn back the clock, get his team playing consistently by being consistent himself, if the team can get back to winning and the Alexes start scoring again, if Perreault sees more ice time and Eakin gets a chance to grow in Hershey, then keep him. If not, time to boot the guy. I do not know who could replace him, but I hear that Dale Hunter has taken to a little minor-league coaching recently, and I'm sure he knows a thing or two about playing good hockey. McPhee needs to make a move within the next month, though, and I'm not talking about call-ups. If a day goes by where GMGM is not on the phone with another GM in the next month, Leonsis needs to start asking some questions himself. I really do think this team can win, and my bleak July predictions were only because I do not have the faith in Boudreau and McPhee to show me that they know how to properly manage this incredible roster. So far, they have done nothing to prove me wrong. I want them to, just like Johansson has. But if they can't, hockey is as much a business as everything else and the dead weight needs to be cut off before it drags the whole club down to the depths. Can't worry about making it out of the second round if you can't make it to the first, fellas. So Rock the Red and get back to scoring four goals a game like two years ago while allowing two like you did last year. The talent is there, the players are there, and 90% of them are doing their jobs. Time for Boudreau to earn his keep.

Caps-Ducks Recap

Power outages and FCC blackout regs have left me with a broken ability to watch all of the past three games, which is why I haven't done a recap lately. But I was able to see all but ten minutes of the second period tonight, so here ya go. My five thoughts on tonight's game:

• I don't know who was

  

  Personally, I think he is a Highlander. Ageless Scandinavian
  guy in peak physical condition? Just saying, don't be
  surprised when they find him headless in an alley or mountaintop.

  better tonight, the Caps' third line or Teemu Selanne. That's a lie, the ageless wonder was of course better (two goals and an assist, just an incredible player), but the meat-and-potatoes line looked damn good after a couple games of looking not-so-much. Combining for one goal and seven points overall, Laich, Ward, and Chimera all finished +3 to boot. If I had to pick my three stars, it'd be Selanne, M-n-P Line, and Backstrom. Backstrom, of course, got the 6-on-5 game-tying goal at the end of regulation, and then potted the winner in OT. He's obviously woken up this year and is back to form (other than those pesky faceoffs). I'm feeling good about Ovi and Backstrom this year.

• While nobody was surprised that Boudreau did his line change shuffle tonight, seeing Knuble on the fourth line and the Carlson-Alzner pairing broken up was pretty surprising. It's been weird enough, for me at least, to see number 22 on the second line this season, but the fourth line? Man, I thought Perreault didn't belong down there. Thankfully, by the end of the game Knuble had moved back up the ranks and even got ice time with his old pals Backstrom and Ovechkin. Boudreau may have wanted to shake things up tonight, but all that really happened was he confused players by putting them with unfamiliar linemates. Just like the old days.
• Roman Hamrlik was signed in the offseason to bring a veteran presence to the blueline,someone who could block shots, generate offense when needed, mentor the kids, and generally be one of the most defensively responsible guys on the ice. So hopefully there won't be many (any?) more games like this one. Playing a part in the first few goals scored against, with some saying he deserved some assists on the Anaheim goals, he finished with no points or shots on goal and a team worst -3, despite having the third-most ice time behind Wideman and Carlson. Hammer needs to put tonight behind him, shore up his game, and move on. But still. Yikes.
• Defensive breakdowns and bad communication early on gave the Ducks an early 2-0 lead, and really none of the four goals Anaheim scored could be blamed on Vokoun (which is the kind of thing I don't say very often at all), and could probably be blamed on Boudreau as much as the players. Despite that, the Caps showed some of their best defensive play this season, holding the highly skilled Ducks to a mere 15 shots (6-5-4-0 by period). Not good for Vokoun's stats, but good news for the team. That effort, with a healthy Mike Green and familiarity amongst linemates again, is what they needed to carry over from last year.
• On the opposite end of the ice, Jonas Hiller allowed five goals on 40 shots (9-12-18!-1 by period). They weren't all pretty, but that is still five goals for the league's leading offense, giving them an even 4.00 goals-for average. That's the kind of play they need to carry over from 09-10. Put 'em together and whaddya got? Bippity-boppity-winning. 

 Your Washington Capitals are now 8-2-0 through the first ten games of the season. It hasn't always been pretty, with four of those games decided in OT or the shootout, the ugly game in Vancouver, and the return of PK woes, but you don't have to win pretty for it to count in the end. I'll have more tomorrow on my thoughts of what lessons can be learned from these games, but for now, let's revel in the fact that the Caps are leading the league in point percentage and are perfect at Verizon Center. Let's keep winning, boys. And, of course, here are your NHL.com highlights:

Maybe I Was Wrong...

...but it is still too soon to tell. While the Caps have been the most dominant team in the league so far (see Steven Hindle's article for some more details on exactly where the team ranks in different areas), they have not even played 10% of the regular season. Everyone (who is expected to get significant ice time, that is) is healthy, and the competition has either been weak or not at their best. The Flyers are the most glaring exception to this, and that win should be the shining star of this October. Carolina and Tampa Bay are weaker team than they were last year, and while the Panthers are somewhat better, they are still the Panthers. The win in Detroit was a sign of what this team can look like when all cylinders are firing, but they were playing their second game in as many days, on the road, and with their backup goalie in net. The 7-0 start is absolutely impressive regardless of any qualifiers, and it would be impressive even if it was seven straight home games against the Blue Jackets and Jets. However, those qualifiers are still there, are still worth looking at, and do still leave some questions unanswered. This post, though, looks at some of my opinions that may result in me eating my words.

1. Marcus Johansson should not be the second line center: He has four goals in six games, having been a healthy scratch on opening night due to his sub-par preseason play, including three game winners. All four goals came in the first period. His goal against the Red Wings was the furthest away from the net he had been for any goal. Two wrap-arounds and two hard-angle shots have gotten him off to a hot start. So you know what? I am sticking to my claim here. His primary linemates, Alexander Semin and Mike Knuble, have scored one goal each with MoJo in the lineup, and he did not assist on either one. He has been absolutely horrible at winning faceoffs, posting a team-worst 37.5% while getting the third-most faceoffs on the team behind Brooks Laich and Nicklas Backstrom. His goals all came from the sides of the net, three of them to the goalie's left plus the shot from Conklin's right. His offensive awareness is much better than last year, as are his deking abilities. But his skill set looks more and more like that of a two-way winger than of the playmaking center that the team wants him to be. Washington is so deep at forward that there is no reason to force him into a role that he just isn't suited for. Obviously it would take some line-shifting, but doing so early in the season is better than halfway through or during the playoffs.
   
2. Jason Chimera will not find success with the team: This one has seriously been put into question. He started off strong, getting four goals (including an empty netter) pretty quickly and not making any glaring errors while playing on the very successful "Meat and Potatoes Line." However, he has been absolutely invisible the past few games. After last season, a successful season for Chimera pretty much means scoring a bit more, hitting a bit more, and generally not being a liability. Obviously nobody expected him to keep up his scoring pace, but the last two parts there are his most important additions to the team. For now, the third line is working so solidly together that it is hard to say that I want them to break up. Nobody was really worried about Laich's productivity or Ward's role on the Capitals, so I think that Chimera is really the key to deciding how long the line should stay together. This bears watching closely, so that if it looks like there might be a better way of matching up players, Boudreau will be able to find the combo sooner rather than later.
   
3. Mathieu Perreault is not a good fit for the fourth line: I made this assertion because I think he is too gifted offensively and not physical enough to be an effective fourth-liner, so I thought he should be moved up higher in the lineup. Again, however, this has seriously been thrown into question as a result of the success the fourth line of Perreault, Jeff Halpern, and Matt Hendricks. Perreault is the only to have scored a goal so far, but those were the result of very solid defensive play and awareness. He is only credited with one hit, but he has yet to be on ice for a goal against, and as a line they have just been so good together. MP85's physicality is still an issue, though, and always will be because of his size. It remains to be seen how this will really matter on the fourth line, though, as they are currently playing like an incredibly responsible offensive threat. Perreault's spot on the team, much like Chimera's, is something to keep a close eye on. Again, for now, it seems hard to want to break up the combo.
   
4. Boudreau would not be able to coach this team: So far it seems I am just wrong on this one. For the most part, each game has looked better than the last. The lines have not been shuffled much, if at all, since Beagle was knocked out of the lineup in the Pittsburgh game. Just about everything is clicking. Two possible signs of weakness: (1) the shots against are sky-high, and Vokoun (probably?) can't possibly keep up this level of play throughout the year, and (2) the PK has fallen back down to the middle of the league. Luckily Vokoun has been stellar after his debut game, and the team has been responsible and hasn't had to go on the PK much. While I certainly do not want to go back to the non-scoring ways of last season, something needs to come together to give Vokoun a break and get the penalty kill working at a similar level to last year. If the team can keep up the offense, and get the PK percentage up, BB may actually have another shot at the Jack Adams (as much as it paaaaaiinnnsss me to say it). Once things start to go awry, though, be ready to see more of the line jumbling that we've become accustomed to. Hopefully it'll just bring out more of everyone's best, rather than confusing them as it seemed to last year.

So I will say that I was wrong about Boudreau's ability to coach this team, I'll tentatively say that Perreault and Chimera are doing fine where they are, but I'm not backing down on MoJo being a lousy option at center (but he is not a lousy player). This may be something to return to once a month and check up on these guys' (and my) progress.

Caps at Flyers Game Recap

What do I know about Ovechkin? Talbot was right.

Tonight was billed as a test for the Capitals and the Flyers. Both have had strong starts to the season, and both made some gutsy moves in the off-season, especially in net. They are both expected to be Cup contenders this year and likely for years down the road. Washington spent far less money on their star goalie, and it looks like money can't buy everything. After two tight periods, the Capitals dominated the Flyers in the third and silence the home crowd in Philadelphia. Perreault, Hamrlik, and Ward all got their first goals of the season while Ovechkin got two. It wasn't a perfect game, if such a thing exists, but it was a strong effort for Washington all the way through. It looked a lot like back-to-back 60-minute games, but that might have just been my eyes playing tricks on me. Anyway, here are my five thoughts:

• While I still don't think Perreault belongs on the fourth line, he certainly does not seem to care where he plays as long as he is in the game. One of the stronger players for the Capitals tonight, he got the tying goal late in the first period after reading a pass and firing a low shot that deflected off one of the Flyer's skates and added an assist on Hamrlik's goal later on (first goal for each guy this season). All those people who claim Johansson is the more defensive-minded of the young centers have to be questioning themselves after these first few games. Perreault has yet to be on ice for a single goal against and is credited with five takeaways and zero giveaways. MoJo has been on ice for three goals against with four takeaways and two giveaways. MP85 also has three points (1-2-3) in four games, while MoJo has four points (3-1-4) in five. This is all while Johansson has seen far more ice time, so take all that as you wish six games into the season. Personally I have always been an unabashed Perreault supporter and I have seen nothing but play to vindicate my support so far. Both still need serious work winning faceoffs, with neither being even near a 40% win percentage.
• Dennis Wideman came to the Capitals last year to help shore up an injured blue line and spark a floundering powerplay. He soon fell victim to injury with a nasty hematoma in his leg and missed most of the time he spent with Washington. Well, now he is on a six game points streak and has been one of the most valuable guys on the team in all six games. He is still subject to the occasional defensive lapse, but overall he makes this year's Caps all the more dangerous with one of the best defensive corps in the league.
• All that time with awful teams was just Vokoun's way of preparing for nights like this. He kept the Caps in this game even more than the offense did, holding the Flyers to just one goal until they got a meaningless second tally with 14.7 seconds left. Oh yeah, that required him to stop 40 shots, with 41 coming before that last goal. He is making this team look a lot better than they probably are right now. 
• Has the beast awoken? Ovechkin scored twice tonight, including a blast of a one-timer on the power play, bringing him to a season total of three. He still trails Chimera for the team lead... That right there should tell you just how much to read into goal-scoring trends in the first six games, but the Great 8 looked a bit more like his old self tonight. He laid out his old buddy Max "Ovechkin-is-a-Douche" Talbot for a questionable interference penalty and was putting shots on the net all night. Hopefully we'll see more of this Ovi on Saturday against the Red Wings, and throughout the season.
• It's hard to criticize a team and coach that have a perfect record six games into the season, and after passing their first real "test" against another top-notch team... but that's what you have to do with a Cup contender. Just like I'm not sold on Perrault the fourth liner, I'm not a huge fan of Brouwer and Knuble on the 1st and 2nd lines, respectively. The 8-19-22 line has so much chemistry built up, while Semin and Knuble just clearly are not clicking. Semin in particular had a rough go of things tonight, being directly responsible for the Flyers scoring the first goal of the game. He may be trying to prove he does care after all, but playing cute little puck games on the blue line with Wayne Simmonds and Claude Giroux poking at the puck is asking for trouble. Brouwer said earlier today that he wanted to try and open up the ice for Alex and let him get back to his game (and become a more consistent scoring threat, himself). Obviously he was referring to Ovechkin, but I say the same attitude would work just as well with the other current Swede-Russian Alex pairing on the team. Put Knuble back where he is comfortable, and let Brouwer play his game on the second line, where he is probably more comfortable, too.

The test isn't over. Washington hosts (currently) undefeated Detroit on Saturday. The Red Wings will be playing their second game in as many days, but as of right now have not lost and lead the league in GAA. The Caps have already felled their two biggest foes in the Eastern Conference (Pitt and Philly), now they face a Western Conference dynasty. If they keep up the kind of effort we've seen so far, they'll either never lose again or all be on IR by Christmas. I give it even-up odds. NHL.com highlights below:

Caps - Panthers Recap

After missing the Ottawa game, I'm back with a recap for the Capitals franchise-record setting win over the Panthers. The Caps have now opened the season with five straight wins for the first time in franchise history, including a franchise-best four wins at home. To cap it off, they earned a shutout against a division foe that demolished the Tampa Bay Lightning the night before. Johansson (PP), Semin, and Chimera (EN) scored while Vokoun earned the shutout. Here are my five thoughts:

• Tonight, as just about everybod

  

  That's a good goalie. You'll get a treat for
  the shutout when we get back to the locker room.
  

  y who would possibly be reading this knows, was a sort of homecoming for a couple players. Vokoun and Wideman were with the Panthers last year, and Matt Bradley was one of the most loved players on the Capitals for years. Tomas Fleischmann was one of the many players who suffered under Boudreau's line changing regime, getting shipped off to Colorado last year before signing with Florida this off-season. Jose Theodore, a member of the rotating door cast of goaltenders for Washington for two years, got the night off for Florida. For Vokoun and Wideman, it was a good night: Vokoun got his first shutout as a Capital and Wideman extended his points streak to five games. "Flash" had a decent game and saw a couple scoring chances, while "Brads" finished a -1 for the evening. I hope they have success in their careers, just as long as things go like tonight any time they play the Caps.
  
  
• Marcus Johansson scored on Washington's only power play of the night, giving him three scores on the season. This was his first non-wraparound goal, but it wasn't too far off. MoJo saw that Ovechkin was double covered in addition to having a good look at the net, and decided to just try and force it in the corner by Markstrom's left side, and in the five-hole it went. The sophomore Swede is showing some of that offensive prowess that everyone talked about last year (but that I never really saw translate into anything other than a solidly mediocre season), and I am man enough to admit I may have been wrong about him. Let's not get too excited, though: as was noted by Joe Beninati and Craig Laughlin, the goal should have been an easy one to stop. Goalies today do not close off the posts quite like they used to, especially guys playing their first ever NHL game. He may have three goals, but temper expectations as they were close goals that all should have been stopped. But kudos to the kid for having the awareness to see that they actually would go in and making the necessary moves.
  
  
• While he got his second straight game winner, Johansson is still leaving the second line center debate open a bit with his faceoff percentage. He only won 1 of 7 on the dot tonight. If he keeps up his goal scoring and his faceoff percentage, I see no reason why he shouldn't be moved to wing later on this season. The team really has too many centers, and on any given night you have at least two playing wing. Backstrom and Laich struggled a bit tonight, too, winning only 10 of their 26 combined faceoffs. The fourth line, made up of three natural centers in Perreault, Hendricks, and Halpern, lost only one faceoff. Perreault won both of his, Hendricks his only attempt, and Halpern won 8 of 9. Much has been said, often times by me, of how little faceoffs can actually mean in the context of a team's offense, but it is still something to keep an eye on since they do affect puck possession.
  
  
• There have been games when you read the stats and see something like "Capitals shut outopponent and hold them to 20 shots," but think to yourself "Yeah, but it probably wasn't pretty." Tonight was not one of those games. The boys in red played the ever-elusive 60 minute game, and it really showed. The shot totals (32-20) and the score (3-0) are representative of that, and the score could easily have been even more lopsided than it was. While keeping up that kind of play for the remaining 77 games of the regular season could take a physical toll on the team, this is the kind of effort they will need in the postseason. It is refreshing to finally see it and know they can do it, now they just need to keep it up.
   
• Florida must have been a little shocked at the lack of penalties. They scored four powerplay goals last night and got a shorty to boot. Tonight the Caps and Cats combined for three penalties total - two on us, one on them. Definitely another tribute to how well both teams played tonight. For years, Florida has been at the bottom of the bottom tier, but they have started this season strong and pose a legitimate threat as a dark-horse playoff contender. Markstrom played very well in net tonight, stopping 29 shots for a .923 save percentage. And if history is any indicator, he could challenge Theodore for starts for much of the season. The Panthers have a good future ahead. Add another team to the list challenging the South-Least Division nickname. Now if only the Jets would get on board the playoff train....

Now that the Caps have beaten three division opponents, a Cup-favorite team in the Penguins, and a man-I-wish-we-had-their-draft-spot team in the Senators, they go on the road to face the Flyers on Thursday before hosting the Western Conference's undefeated Red Wings on Saturday. It was a good win against a respectable team, but now is not the time to relax by any means. Five down, seventy-seven to go. Now for your NHL.com highlights: