Back, Baby!

A few of you may notice that the last post of mine was June 30. A lot has happened since then, but I honestly felt like I had nothing new to contribute to any discussions about adding Wojtek Wolski, Joey Crabb, Jack Hillen, minor-league player moves, or, above all, the lockout (RIP). A good bit has happened in my own life, including finally securing a full-time, permanent job. But now that the lockout is over, and everything is settled down, it's time to get back to what matters: My opinions on the current and future state of the Washington Capitals.

Current Caps Outlook - Trust Me

If you look back at my early summer postings, you will see a lot of optimism about the 2012-2013 Caps. That was before the signing of Wolski, who I think will be a breakout player this year, earning a spot on the top six. Crabb and Hillen will make excellent backups for the 4th line and 3rd pairing, respectively. I still love this roster, especially under new coach Adam Oates. I just don't think there are any glaring weaknesses in terms of skill.

That being said, I think Washington will be something of a mess this shortened season. They won't look in sync, they won't execute a system well, and only a few players will live up to their potential as a result. Why, you may ask? Well there's this, and this, and that. Locker room strife, like it or not, is going to be an issue. When Neuvirth, statistically the worst Caps goalie on the roster every season since he has been on the roster, is talking down about his teammate and criticizing his captain, that doesn't make for a lot of trust on the ice - the kind of thing goalies rely on. When Troy Brouwer openly says he does not trust veteran defenseman Roman Hamrlik and Neuvirth, you're looking at mistrust between a valued forward, the defense, and again the netminder.

These guys are pros, all of them, and you would expect them to put aside their feelings and play hard and play well. And don't get me wrong, they'll try their best (except maybe Neuvirth, that kid irks me with his sense of entitlement earned not from skill but from horrendous coaching choices). But trust and respect are huge in all relationships, sports included. Feelings get hurt, people hold grudges, and things gnaw at the back of your mind. This doesn't even include any possible feelings about half the team jetting for Europe and Ovi threatening to stay there. Those feelings I think can be dismissed far more easily than those related the specific name-dropping in press interviews. No other team had as many attacks between teammates during this admittedly contentious lockout, if any.

Throw in a new coach, and likely yet another adjustment to strategy, and I think you'll see Ovi trying to do it all by himself, defensive players getting frustrated, and a rotating cast of second line wingers never really finding a way to synchronize with Ribeiro. Speaking of rotating second liners, think back pre-lockout and the supposed promises McPhee made to Mathieu Perreault. He seemed to really believe that he would be in the top six. With Ribeiro, MoJo, Wolski, Backstrom, Ovi, Laich, Chimera, and Brouwer, you have nine guys going for six spots. Three of them will be on the third line, just by math, but then you have Hendricks and Ward, who have probably each earned a third line spot, stuck getting minimal ice time after all. McPhee has certainly done his part to hurt trust in the Caps organization with his handling of trades and free agency signings over the past 15 years.

It's the emotional side of things that are going to hurt the Capitals this year, not the roster and not the coaching. Thankfully, we have a shortened season, two buyouts, a slew of incredible prospects, and a smaller salary cap next year that will make 2013-2014 a different story. We just have to last til then. But more on that later.

Welcome back folks, I'm glad to be back and blogging again and I'd love input throughout the season!

Captaining the Caps

Let me preface this by saying I have never played hockey. I've never played on a varsity team, but I have played on JV squads in other sports (wrestling and rugby). So while I can't say that I know exactly what the most desirable traits are in the captain of a hockey squad, I have at lease some exposure to team sports and captaincy.

It is my opinion that Ovechkin should relinquish the "C" to Brooks Laich this offseason. Doing so right now would merely add more turmoil and misplaced focus to an already fragile Caps squad, but I do think it would be for the best once the season is over.

I am not saying, by any means, that Ovechkin is not a leader on the Capitals, nor that he is an ineffective leader. I simply believe that he is not the best leader on the team. What I do believe is that Ovechkin is usually one of the best leaders on the ice in terms of passion for the game and skill. His numbers may be slumping as of late, and people have questioned his effort accordingly. But watch his reaction when anybody on the team scores. Watch his face when the team is down. Watch him absolutely blow someone up because they dared lay a heavy hit on him. This is a guy who cares about winning and about his team, regardless of how many coaches rotate in and how many talking heads say otherwise. You will never convince me otherwise.

What I am convinced of is that these alone are not the only qualifications for leading as team captain. Brooks Laich embodies those qualities a little better. There is a reason that his name comes up every single time someone questions who should be captain, just as talks of who should be captain come up every time he gives a presser. It is no secret that his voice is one of the loudest and most respected in the locker room, along with that of Mike Knuble. Unlike Laich, though, Knuble does not have a fresh six-year deal that clearly pays him as much for his leadership skills as his hockey skills.

On the ice, Laich is a leader as well. For all of Ovechkin's skills, you probably won't see him suiting up as a center one day, left wing the next, and then filling in on defense next week. Laich is an all-around player. As much as I love Ovi, he just doesn't fit that description. I think the Great 8 is the best player on the team, but that the best player on the team does not necessarily have to be the captain.

The L.A. Kings chose Dustin Brown, a 20-goal two-way forward as their captain. The Penguins chose Sidney Crosby, who (good lord I hate saying this) established himself as the best player in the league when he is healthy. The Kings have plenty of talent, plenty of players who have more offensive talent than Brown, especially now that they have Mike Richards and Jeff Carter on the team to join Anze Kopitar, but Brown is the guy who better exemplifies what they need in a captain. Part of me thinks that the Caps looked at the Penguins a little too much when they chose their best player as their captain. But who else would they have chosen? Nobody else remotely worthy of the role, aside from Evgeni Malkin, was really guaranteed to be there for a substantial period of time, and the Penguins were going through as much of a rebuild as the Caps.

When Chris Clark was injured for the better part of three seasons before ultimately being traded while still holding the captaincy, it made a lot of sense to make Ovi his replacement. He was on top of the world, a whirlwind force on the ice, and the face of the franchise. Laich wasn't guaranteed to be around, because the Caps were still forming their new identity. Whether Ovechkin was truly ready for the role is a whole different story, and one that none of us who are not close to him personally can ever truly attest to. What can be attested to now is that Laich is the guy that many fans and much of the media look to as the true leader and heart of the team off the ice, and as a more than capable player and leader on the ice. He is the guy who runs warm-ups, and has for five years.

Aside from Laich being the guy I think would be the best captain for the team right now, especially through turmoil and regime change, I think it could possibly be better for Ovechkin right now, too. Much has been made of Olie Kolzig's comments that Ovi needs to get back to his younger years and back off from his "rock star" image. I don't think those comments are meant to be nearly as negative as many have made them out to be. I think it is more a call for him to remove distractions and focus on his game, to not get quite so caught up in all the pressures of his life and being pulled in 100 different directions from the team, the league, the coaches, the media, the sponsors, the fans, and everyone else. Whether or not it is a phantom correlation (X and Y appear correlated, but only because Z is happening at the same time), Ovechkin's offensive production has plummeted since taking on the captain's role. Removing one more pressure from his life could arguably help him regain his focus, helping his production and by proxy, the team. Admittedly, that may be a bit of a stretch, but it is still a factor that should be considered.

If the Capitals could have co-captains, I would be 100% behind Ovechkin and Laich sharing the role. But since the NHL does not allow teams to have co-captains, I think that Laich should have a shot starting next season. Again, this is really nothing against Ovechkin, but is instead praise for Laich and recognition that the team is going through changes one way or another. A different captain may help facilitate that change.

Caps at Flyers Game Recap

What do I know about Ovechkin? Talbot was right.

Tonight was billed as a test for the Capitals and the Flyers. Both have had strong starts to the season, and both made some gutsy moves in the off-season, especially in net. They are both expected to be Cup contenders this year and likely for years down the road. Washington spent far less money on their star goalie, and it looks like money can't buy everything. After two tight periods, the Capitals dominated the Flyers in the third and silence the home crowd in Philadelphia. Perreault, Hamrlik, and Ward all got their first goals of the season while Ovechkin got two. It wasn't a perfect game, if such a thing exists, but it was a strong effort for Washington all the way through. It looked a lot like back-to-back 60-minute games, but that might have just been my eyes playing tricks on me. Anyway, here are my five thoughts:

• While I still don't think Perreault belongs on the fourth line, he certainly does not seem to care where he plays as long as he is in the game. One of the stronger players for the Capitals tonight, he got the tying goal late in the first period after reading a pass and firing a low shot that deflected off one of the Flyer's skates and added an assist on Hamrlik's goal later on (first goal for each guy this season). All those people who claim Johansson is the more defensive-minded of the young centers have to be questioning themselves after these first few games. Perreault has yet to be on ice for a single goal against and is credited with five takeaways and zero giveaways. MoJo has been on ice for three goals against with four takeaways and two giveaways. MP85 also has three points (1-2-3) in four games, while MoJo has four points (3-1-4) in five. This is all while Johansson has seen far more ice time, so take all that as you wish six games into the season. Personally I have always been an unabashed Perreault supporter and I have seen nothing but play to vindicate my support so far. Both still need serious work winning faceoffs, with neither being even near a 40% win percentage.
• Dennis Wideman came to the Capitals last year to help shore up an injured blue line and spark a floundering powerplay. He soon fell victim to injury with a nasty hematoma in his leg and missed most of the time he spent with Washington. Well, now he is on a six game points streak and has been one of the most valuable guys on the team in all six games. He is still subject to the occasional defensive lapse, but overall he makes this year's Caps all the more dangerous with one of the best defensive corps in the league.
• All that time with awful teams was just Vokoun's way of preparing for nights like this. He kept the Caps in this game even more than the offense did, holding the Flyers to just one goal until they got a meaningless second tally with 14.7 seconds left. Oh yeah, that required him to stop 40 shots, with 41 coming before that last goal. He is making this team look a lot better than they probably are right now. 
• Has the beast awoken? Ovechkin scored twice tonight, including a blast of a one-timer on the power play, bringing him to a season total of three. He still trails Chimera for the team lead... That right there should tell you just how much to read into goal-scoring trends in the first six games, but the Great 8 looked a bit more like his old self tonight. He laid out his old buddy Max "Ovechkin-is-a-Douche" Talbot for a questionable interference penalty and was putting shots on the net all night. Hopefully we'll see more of this Ovi on Saturday against the Red Wings, and throughout the season.
• It's hard to criticize a team and coach that have a perfect record six games into the season, and after passing their first real "test" against another top-notch team... but that's what you have to do with a Cup contender. Just like I'm not sold on Perrault the fourth liner, I'm not a huge fan of Brouwer and Knuble on the 1st and 2nd lines, respectively. The 8-19-22 line has so much chemistry built up, while Semin and Knuble just clearly are not clicking. Semin in particular had a rough go of things tonight, being directly responsible for the Flyers scoring the first goal of the game. He may be trying to prove he does care after all, but playing cute little puck games on the blue line with Wayne Simmonds and Claude Giroux poking at the puck is asking for trouble. Brouwer said earlier today that he wanted to try and open up the ice for Alex and let him get back to his game (and become a more consistent scoring threat, himself). Obviously he was referring to Ovechkin, but I say the same attitude would work just as well with the other current Swede-Russian Alex pairing on the team. Put Knuble back where he is comfortable, and let Brouwer play his game on the second line, where he is probably more comfortable, too.

The test isn't over. Washington hosts (currently) undefeated Detroit on Saturday. The Red Wings will be playing their second game in as many days, but as of right now have not lost and lead the league in GAA. The Caps have already felled their two biggest foes in the Eastern Conference (Pitt and Philly), now they face a Western Conference dynasty. If they keep up the kind of effort we've seen so far, they'll either never lose again or all be on IR by Christmas. I give it even-up odds. NHL.com highlights below:

If I Were A Gambling Man, and I Am

So the popular thing to do these days is predict what is going to happen this season based on minimal information and experience, speculation as to what the hell coaches are actually talking about, and guessing who will or will not be injured. So let me look at my own tea leaves and tell you what to expect come June with the Capitals and around the league.

I think I got old seaweed by accident...

Caps-Centric Predictions

• Ovechkin returns to form with something to prove. He will finally emerge as the team leader both in example on the ice and with words off the ice. 54 goals, 48 assists, 102 points in 80 games played. 
• At least two of the following will be gone by the trade deadline: Chimera, King, Schultz, and Knuble. My money is on the first two. King has barely played and could be moved for a late-round pick. Chimera just signed a two year contract extension at a palatable price with slightly decreasing cap hits, and is one of the best skaters in the league. However, I think it is unlikely he sees success with the team this year, as he really has not found chemistry with any of the seemingly dozens of linemates he has had in Washington. Schultz and Knuble are both players that other teams could use, and that the Capitals could stand to lose given the team's depth and likely returns in a trade.
• Backstrom gets a nomination for the Selke after leading the team in +/-, seeing significant time on the PP and PK, and finishing in the top 10 for points in the league.
• Semin and Green return to their peak forms as well. By all accounts, Semin is finally making efforts to show the basics of team play like asking the coach questions and speaking more English. Green is in good shape and has had a full summer to recover from nagging injuries. Time with Hamrlik as his defensive partner will give him a good mentor.



Hockey suit up!

• Perreault is kept on a short leash and Johansson is given free reign. MP85 gets no more than 50games, MJ90 will not sit aside from injury. I say this because this is just how the team operates. Some players (Perreault, Fehr, Varlamov) are judged only by the negatives despite having many more positives (playmaking and scoring, scoring, and being the 4th best goalie in the league last year). Others (Johansson, Chimera, Neuvirth) are practically assigned a positive view before their first shift, and no matter how weak their play is and for how long, it will always be excused away or blatantly ignored (weak faceoffs and inconsistency, turnovers and inability to finish, rebounds and soft goals and inconsistency).
• The Capitals do not make it out of the second round of the playoffs yet again. Boudreau is finally fired, and in a shocking move, so is George McPhee. Leonsis finally loses his patience and interjects himself into team management when it becomes clear that McPhee is grasping at straws.

Around the League

• Playoff misses in the East: Winnipeg, Carolina, Toronto, NYI, Montreal, Ottawa and New Jersey.
• Playoff misses in the West: Minnesota, Edmonton, Calgary, Phoenix, St. Louis, Dallas and Nashville. The Blue Jackets make it in with strong offense and mediocre goaltending, while Nashville misses out despite excellent goaltending because of a lack of offense. Think of a lesser version of the Caps with Theodore vs. a better version of the Panthers with Vokoun.
• Semyon Varlamov (Avalanche) again finishes in the top five in SV% and GAA, getting 50 starts and at least 25 wins in regulation. He only misses 10 games due to injury and Colorado finishes seventh in the West.
• The Panthers make a strong run for the playoffs in the second half. Clemmensen plays into the starting job, and the team is led by Fleischmann and a resurgent Booth in points. They make it in on their second to last game, eighth in the East.
• The Penguins win it all: Division, Conference, Lord Stanley. I really hate saying that, but barring even more soul-crushing injuries, the team and the coach are too good. Having Crosby, Malkin, and Staal back and healthy down the middle is terrifying to face. I think James Neal will break out with the team this year, and Fleury will perform as usual: good enough during the regular season, and then phenomenal in the playoffs. They'll beat the Kings in the Finals after the Canucks shockingly flame out in the first round.
• Ovechkin wins the Richard and Hart. Crosby wins the Ted Lindsay, and Malkin wins the Art Ross. None of last year's Vezina contenders get back-to-back nominations. Shea Weber wins the Norris. 

That cup on the right doesn't seem big enough for my tastes.

Assuming anyone actually reads this and has an opinion, I'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments section below. Right now I'm mostly writing these posts for my own sake, but I'd like to think someone out there agrees or disagrees with me.