Caps @ Pens Recap: 1/22/12

At the end of the final game in the Capitals and Penguins season series, the Capitals were the OT losers, 4-3, rounding out a 2-1-1 record. Both teams were missing top players due to injury and/or illness, but it still managed to live up to a lot of the hype, with the remaining big stars chipping in to make NBC happy. Some thoughts:

• For those that actually do follow me on Twitter, or that follow Michael Hoffman (@CapsExaminer) and/or Angie Lewis (@LadyHatTrick), or have even read previous posts, you may have picked up on the fact that I am a big fan of Mathieu Perreault, and that I think he is being under-utilized by the Capitals. Well tonight he got possibly the biggest shot of the season thanks to team misfortunes. Backstrom is still out with a head injury, and Marcus Johansson fell ill this weekend, forcing him to miss the game. First-line center duties surprisingly fell to MP85 on a line with Ovechkin and (*gasp*) Mike Knuble against a fierce rivalry on a nationally televised game. How did he do? Skated a season-high 16:22, posted two assists and a +2, and generally looked solid defensively and offensively. His first point came on a beautiful play with Ovechkin and Semin with the team rushing up the ice. A great pass from Ovi led to a quick, hard shot by Perreault, leading to a juicy rebound and a goal for Semin. Possibly just as important, if not noticeable, was a play in the Caps' end where Neuvirth gave up a juicy rebound, only to have Perreault poke it away from the corner of the net and lead a play out of the zone. Here's hoping for more of this kind of performance and ice time for the diminutive forward.
• Much has been said about the Capitals' offensive issues this season. Not as much has been said about minor victories masking massive underlying issues. Tonight the team got goals from Laich, Ovechkin, and Semin, their three most expensive (healthy) players, and that was fantastic news. What is terrible news is that they only managed 20 shots on goal, their 7th lowest total of the season, and the fourth time this month they have only scraped together 20 or fewer shots on net. Meanwhile, the team has only allowed fewer than 20 shots against one time this month: Jan 3, when the Calgary Flames got 19 on net. While I am absolutely not ready to put much trust in Neuvirth, I am ready to trust Vokoun. I am also ready to trust the defense to limit quality shots on net, even if they are not limiting the quantity of shots. Hopefully a game like this, moreso than the two shutouts last week, will motivate the guys to shoot the puck more. It's one thing to be shut out, or to win a close game. But after an OT loss in a game where both goalies are playing sub-par, you hope the players are saying to themselves: "What if I had taken one more shot?"
• One of the big differences between Boudreau and Hunter is line-matching. I think Hunter took it a step further today with the lineup today with team-matching. Putting Knuble back on the top line, even if it was only for a short time, and starting Neuvirth were likely both moves made because they have been thorns in the Penguins' sides. Hendricks, Laich, and Brouwer were put together to match Malkin's line with (theoretically) solid defensive play and physicality. It didn't quite work out, but I have some faith that there was a thought process behind the lineups that just about everyone was questioning this morning. 
• You have to give props where they are due, even if you hate to do it: Malkin and Neal were fantastic tonight. The game-tying goal was the work of a supremely gifted, powerful forward in Malkin. Geno pushed through, quite literally, all five Caps players on the ice, never lost the puck, out-powered Hamrlik up against the boards, and managed to pass it to James Neal for his 26th goal of the season. There's a reason that Malkin was taken one pick after Ovechkin, and he is reminding the league and hockey fans of that this season. Neal is reminding people why everyone in Pittsburgh thought Pens GM Ray Shero had incriminating photographs of Dallas' GM when he was brought to the Penguins. Why do I also find this hopeful? Malkin was plagued by injuries the past couple seasons, only to come back healthy and dominant. Neal was in a massive slump during his time in Pittsburgh last season, only to come back and remain tied with Malkin for 3rd in the league for goals. So, too, can our Young(ish) Guns come back from injuries and slumps to return to form. Here's hoping they do.
• More on that game-tying goal, specifically Neal's shot placement. There was a lot of traffic in between Neal and Neuvirth, and a lot of action going on in that short distance. He placed it top-shelf, over Neuvirth's left shoulder. Here's the thing about that shot: most Penguins players are going to make that one go in. Bylsma is a great coach, and Neuvirth is not that great of a goalie. He is very predictable, and while I do not have the capabilities to bring up such statistics (@ngreenberg, anyone?), I would venture a guess that about half or more of the goals against Neuvy over his last 30 games have gone in over his glove-side shoulder, and with increasing frequency the later into his career you go. The reason is that, nearly without fail, Neuvirth will always crouch, sticking his right leg out to the middle of the net, whenever a play is coming out from behind the net on his left side. This leaves an opening above his left shoulder, as he positions his glove near his chest when in this position. I am not a coach, nor am I a scout, and I know this. It is not hard to imagine, especially after watching the 24/7 special from last year, that Bylsma is not only aware of this tendency, but specifically coaches his players to make plays and take shots from that area of the ice. This is also the reason why Neuvirth seems to have so many hard-angle and junk shots go in on him. They are not flukes, those are part of a strategy to defeat a young goaltender with mediocre puck tracking skills and bad habits. In fact, it appears that all four goals went in over his left shoulder, although from different spots on the ice and in different situations. Neal's game-tying goal, while a great shot, needs to be recognized more for the implications for Neuvirth's career, and a probable explanation for his horrendous stats this season: good coaches, and therefore good teams, know precisely how to beat him, and this makes him a liability going forward unless he makes immediate changes. The future of the team he is not.

The Capitals picked up a loser point tonight, leaving them one point behind Florida in the Southleast Southeast division, and two points ahead of Toronto to remain in the top eight teams in the conference. The next five games feature the Boston Bruins bookending two important matches against Tampa Bay and Florida, and a still-valuable two points against the Canadiens. Here's hoping for more of the team we saw in the second and third periods, and none of the team we saw in the first. Otherwise, it is going to be an ugly week for those who rock the red.

Playoff lines

Forwards

The Capitals are officially entering the post-season this week with their worst goalie as their starter, again, and you can read my previous post for my thoughts on that. They have had two practices with the same lines, so they have a good idea of who they are all going to be playing with for at least Game 1 (see link below). All the team's forwards are (at least believed to be) healthy. You have left wingers Ovechkin (8), Brooks Laich (21), Marco Sturm (18), Jason Chimera (25), and D.J. King (17); centers Backstrom (19), Jason Arnott (44), Marcus Johansson (90), and Boyd Gordon (15); right wingers Mike Knuble (22), Alexander Semin (28), Eric Fehr (16), Matt Bradley (10), and Jay Beagle (83); and everyman Matt Hendricks (26). That means 15 players for 12 spots. Another great quote is "A good problem to have is still a problem." This is an issue the Caps had last year, too. Who do you play? Who do you sit? I again am a big fan of playing who is the best with who they play best with. So with that, here are my ideal forward lines (ones I do not expect to see given the shuffling of players that BB has become so enamored with, and ones that are clearly in conflict with what we know they will be):

Hey Matt, you've got a little something in your eye

8-19-16
21-44-28
18-90-22
26-15-10

This means that I am sitting Jay Beagle, which can be expected as he is primarily a Hershey Bears player and an injury callup; D.J. King, which can also be expected based on the fact that he played left bench more often than left wing this season; and Jason Chimera. This last choice is the "problem" part of the "good problem to have," and really is the only debate in who should sit and who should play. Yes, having King in there to scare a Blueshirt or two might be nice for a game or two, but I'm talking about someone to have in for an entire series or Cup run.

Currently, it looks as though Fehr is not in the lineup for Game 1, and I feel that is a much larger problem than not having Chimera playing. Both players scored 10 goals this year. The difference is, Chimera played in 81 games and Fehr played in 52. On average, it takes 107 minutes and 22 seconds of ice time for Chimera to score a goal, and 67 minutes and 6 seconds to earn an assist. Fehr requires 65 minutes and 27 seconds to score a goal, and the same amount of time to earn an assist. Chimera was also a team-worst -10, with Tyler "Oh-my-God-the-puck-is-over-there-now" Sloan finishing second-worst with a -6 and Fehr finishing even. Chimera is also a good bit more familiar with the penalty box than F16, averaging .790 penalty minutes a game compared to Fehr's .308. Fehr is a player who scores more per game, assists teammates more per game, is on ice for fewer even strength and shorthanded goals, and takes less than half the penalties as Chimera. I don't see how this is a contest, but it again shows BB's weakness for certain players (Chimera, Steckel, Johansson) and utterly illogical disdain for others (Fehr, Fleischmann, Perreault). Chimera should probably get some ice time during the series, but I would prefer it was at the expense of someone who performs worse, not better, than he does.

Fleury and Boudreau were equally shocked to see Fehr on ice.

I also have Fehr on the top line. The Caps just inked Knuble, who now has eight-straight 20-goal seasons, to a one-year, $2 million extension. Knuble has been one of the more durable forwards, and while he has dry spells, he has been one of the more consistent guys, as well. However, he is set to turn 39 on Independence Day, while Fehr will only be turning 26 come September. One of these guys is probably going to be the team's top-line net crasher for the foreseeable future, and I think I'd put Knuble's new contract on Fehr being that guy. He is younger, faster, plays a similar style, and for the past two seasons has been one of the top goals-per-60 guys in the league. Why not give him the chance to make up for last year's disappointing outing in the playoffs with the best odds of doing so? He was a killer of flightless birds on New Year's, and still managed to hit 10 goals in an injury-plagued season (thanks Steckel).  On a team with so many skilled forwards, it is not a punishment for Knuble to play on the third line. A man with his skills should help youngster Johansson and speed demon Chimera put their skills together for a goal or two.


Defenders

The defenders are a lot easier to set up than the forwards. Firstly, the Caps are decimated at the blueline by injuries. Green, Poti, and Wideman, all out. Green, at least, should be back for the first game. Don't be surprised if Poti makes a surprise showing by Game 2, either. Secondly, it is pretty easily apparent which guys, in a healthy world, are best set playing with the cushy chairs in the press box. In case you don't know who they all are, the Caps' D-men are Green (52), Schultz (55), Carlson (74), Alzner (27), Hannan (23), Wideman (6), Erskine (4), Poti (3), Sloan (89), and recent call-up Sean Collins (62).  That being said, here are my picks for the defensive pairings:

74-27
52-23
4-55

This setup may actually be a little controversial for the Caps faithful, so let me explain. Carlson and Alzner have put together a spectacular season, with Carlson getting some much-deserved Calder talk, even though the award will certainly go to a forward, and Carlson would be a surprise nomination. With Green having missed so many games, and Hannan being so lackluster offensively, there is no reason to take the two youngsters off top-pairing duties. They, in my opinion, are at the core of the new system. Green is one of the league's elite defensemen, a two-time Norris finalist, and Hannan has finally developed into the solid shutdown man the Caps thought they traded for in the first place. But as noted, missed games and no knack for the net delegate them to the second pairing, at least for now.

"Well hey there, little fella! I just
need to get on through here, don't mind me.

Normally, Schultz plays with Green. However, I've always believed that Schultz held Green back, and Green made Sarge look good. This year has shown a lot of that, with Green's diminished numbers and Schultz making a good number of mistakes in his own end. Green would benefit from Hannan's experience and vocal nature, especially when he is just returning from injury. Schultz, on the other hand, being the Cap's biggest player, would benefit from playing a bit more physical - a role more at place for a third-pairing guy, and a role Erskine knows well. Were Poti healthy again, I would swap him in for Erskine. Poti is a bit more offensive minded, but can play the physical game, too. Now, in a world where Wideman is healthy, the lines change a bit:

52-6
74-27
55-23

Putting two of the league's better puck-moving defensemen on the same line has the potential to yield quick offensive results, but Wideman's propensity for making mistakes in his own end brings up some serious risks. Luckily, Green has solidified his defensive game and can minimize that risk while maximizing the reward. The skill and experience of these guys demotes the young 'uns to the second pairing, leaving Schultz and Hannan as a big, defensive shutdown pairing. That third pairing is not going to produce a lot of points, but it will absorb a lot of shots and give out the occasional big hit.

Final note: Notice how you don't see Sloan or Collins? Good for you. Sloan is the rare player who has moved between forward and defense over his career, and the still-rarer one of those players that is 30 years old and cannot keep track of the play when he is (un)lucky enough to get ice time. Collins has shown himself to be fairly capable, and I would actually prefer to have him on ice instead of Sloan, or to give Erskine/Poti a rest. But unless there is a need for him, he can't quite crack the top-6 on the depth chart. Erskine, Poti, and Sloan should never again be in the top 4 on the Caps blueline, and after this season, probably not even on the top six.

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