Caps-Bruins Game 4 (and beyond) Preview

Here's the deal. Not only can the Caps win this game, and ultimately win this series, but they should. They are, in terms of players and talent, the better team. Chara is a four-time Norris trophy finalist, one-time winner, and will probably be nominated again this year. Tim Thomas is an all-star, Vezina-winning, NHL record-setting, Stanley-Cup winning, Conn Smythe-winning goalie. We all know that, and yes, they are intimidating players to be up against in any game, let alone a tight playoff series. But beyond them, if you match up player-for-player... the Caps are better.

One thing that helps, of course, is the fact that Boston is without the underrated Nathan Horton, arguably their most well-rounded forward. He's cracked 30 goals once before. But let's match up (healthy) top-player for top-player here:

Tyler Seguin, Patrice Bergeron, and David Krejci vs. Alexander Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Alex Semin

Remember, Russians disappear in the playoffs. Wait...

Seguin is probably Boston's most skilled forward, and he is only 20 years old and in his sophomore season. Bergeron is clearly their top center, and is absolutely a very skilled player. Krejci is another skilled player who was nearly a point-per-game player in last year's Cup-winning run. Bergeron is the only one to crack the 30 goal mark, ever. Seguin had 29 this year. All three of the Caps' players here can just about humiliate the Boston trio in terms of offensive production, skill, and overall hockey sense. Boston definitely is more of a physical, defensive-minded, agitating team than the Caps are, and Bergeron and Krejci can certainly play that game well. But Ovi is one of the league's hardest and most frequent hitters. Backstom plays both sides of special teams with great success. Semin? His defensive abilities are vastly underrated and have been put on display in this series. Washington's big three may not be known for defense, but that doesn't mean they can't play it. Oh, and how about point totals so far? In three games, Seguin, Bergeron, and Krejci have combined for one assist. The Caps' guys have a goal apiece and three combined assists. It's no question, the "Young Gun" forwards are superior players.

Zdeno Chara, Dennis Seidenberg, Johnny Boychuk, and Andrew Ferrence vs. Mike Green, Roman Hamrlik, John Carlson, and Karl Alzner

He actually forgot to start his playoff
beard until Monday morning. It made him sad.

Chara may very well win the Norris trophy this year. But let's not forget that Mike Green is a two-time finalist for the award as well, narrowly losing to Chara one of those years. Obviously none of the Caps players are as big as Chara, and honestly, none of them are as physical as Chara and Seidenberg are. But after Boston's top pairing, things trail off dramatically. While Green and Hamrlik may not be quite as good as Chara and Seidenberg, they are not a pairing to be overlooked, either. Hammer's regular season was undoubtedly a disappointment, but his time with Green has been productive and effective. Boychuk and Ferrence, on the other hand, are respectable defensemen, but do not hold up against the Caps other top-pairing in Carlzner. Carlson, like Hamrlik, had a disappointing season. Nobody really thinks a whole lot less of him, though. Everyone knows what he is capable of, especially when paired with long-time partner Karl Alzner. Alzner seemingly gets better with every game, and is one of the most solid defensive defensemen in the league. When paired with Carlson, they can block shots, hit, pass, and occasionally even score. Boychuk and Ferrence have specifically been targeted by Hunter and the Caps as weak points to be exploited by Washington's skilled players. They aren't bad players, but they aren't as good as the Caps. And since Chara and Seidenberg can't play all 60 minutes, especially when they are targeting/being targeted by Ovechkin, the Caps' top-four defensemen win out here.

Milan Lucic, Brad Marchand, and Rich Peverly vs. Brooks Laich, Marcus Johansson, and Troy Brouwer

Marchand, seen here, avoiding John Carlson's explosive sneeze

This is where Boston's "agitating" players come in, and they are among the best at what they do. Look only to Backstrom's tussle with Peverly and subsequent Game 4 suspension for that. Lucic is a pest, flying around the ice targeting players when the refs aren't looking, drawing retaliatory penalties, and getting players off their game. Marchand can frequently be seen flopping on the ice looking for his missing leg, arm, or head after being tapped on the shoulder. Despite all that, these guys can play hockey, too. Lucic and Marchand regularly score 20+ goals. But don't think that Troy Brouwer won't level any of these three if given the opportunity. Or that Brooks Laich won't block a shot, then pass it up the ice, then drive through them to the net, and then score the rebound goal. Or that Johansson won't absolutely blow by them at some point (although he will probably leave a drop pass for one of them, or pass instead of shoot, or shoot instead of pass...). There's a reason that Laich was given his contract. There's a reason why the Caps traded a first-round pick for Brouwer's negotiating rights. I may be a big critic of Johansson, but I know he has the speed and skill to develop into a top player. The other guys in the Bruins' top-six may be among the best at what they do, but so are the Caps' guys. At worst, I think it's an even matchup.

Tim Thomas et al. vs. ???

Right now, it's Braden Holtby. Before, it was Vokoun or Neuvirth. The fact remains is that Boston's goaltending probably wins out against the Caps. But Holtby has proven himself to be Thomas' equal through three games. Vokoun is out. Neuvirth is absolutely the worst of the three, and it would be a travesty if he starts a game in the playoffs, regardless of how far the Caps go. I don't care if nobody else listens to me, but Neuvirth is not a starting goalie. He wasn't last year, but they gave him the job anyway. He has been outperformed by every other goalie the Caps have started since Neuvirth played his first NHL game. That's just a fact. You cannot argue with it. You can argue about team play, about who "earned" a win, about who the team trusts, about sustainability, bad bounces, what have you. But you cannot argue that Neuvirth has outplayed Vokoun, Holtby, Varlamov, or even Theodore. Oh yeah, Thomas vs. these guys? Thomas wins it, unfortunately.

And then the rest...

Boston's supporting cast of bottom-six forwards and bottom-pairing defensemen features luminaries such as Gregory Campbell, Joe "Oh-No" Corvo, Benoit (balls) Pouliout, and resident "Holy crap he's still playing?!" player Brian Rolston (filling in for Mark Recchi). Many of the Caps' "bottom six" forwards routinely fill in on the top two lines, including veteran Mike Knuble, Jason Chimera and Mathieu "Remember that time I scored a hat trick against Boston when Ovi and Backstrom were out and then skated under five minutes in Game Three because I blew an assignment one time and my asshat coach decided that was worth over-shifting the rest of the team?" Perreault. And their "bottom pair" defensemen? That'd be Dennis Wideman and Jeff Schultz, with a healthy dose of rookie Dmitri Orlov on the side(lines). Oh, right, Wideman and Schultz have routinely played top-pair minutes this season and in the past. In terms of roster depth, I think it is more than fair to say that the Caps have the Bruins pretty well owned.

So what's the problem?

Hint: it's something in this picture

The problem actually has a name. That problem is Dale Hunter. I actually wanted him to replace Bruce Boudreau back before it was cool (a.k.a June and July). I was wrong. Hunter has proven himself to be an enigmatic-at-best, wants-nothing-more-than-to-return-to-London-at-worst coach. Mike Knuble, one of the most valuable assets that Caps have in any playoff series, continues to ride the pine, only likely coming into the lineup now that Backstrom has to miss a game. Jeff Halpern, former Washington Capitals captain and faceoff extraordinaire, is also on the bench. Who is skating in place of these two? Keith Aucoin and Jay Beagle. In the past I have thought that Aucoin should be in the NHL after years of tearing it up in the AHL. And he probably still should be. Just not in Washington. Jay Beagle has actually had a pretty good series, in the sense that he is only a -1, has eight shots, and is decimating Boston in the faceoff circle. But he is averaging over SIXTEEN MINUTES A GAME. I put that in caps because I wish I could shout it directly into your ear. Jay Beagle, who set career highs this year with 41 games played and FIVE points, is averaging over SIXTEEN MINUTES A GAME in the playoffs while Mike Knuble and Jeff Halpern sit on the bench. Halpern has a career low of 16 points while playeing in his third-fewest regular season games at sixty-nine. He also has a career-low shooting percentage of 6.3%, but was fifth in the league in faceoff percentage. So, at his worst, he has over three time as many points as Beagle while being one of the premier faceoff guys in the league. Beagle can play his heart out, and his best is not as good as Halpern's worst. But Halpern doesn't decide if he is in the game. Beagle doesn't decide to play 16 minutes a game. Hunter decides that. Hunter decides that he would rather have the undersized Keith Aucoin play more minutes than undersized Mathieu Perreault, despite the fact that Perreault has undoubtedly shown more skill and success than Aucoin in addition to being more familiar with the players on the team. He has decided that Mike Knuble really isn't all that, and that Aucoin should additionally get a spot over #22.

The Caps are the better team. But as long as Hunter continues to make horrible decisions in terms of personnel and ice-time management, they don't have a chance. Unless Beagle and Aucoin are replaced with their veteran, skilled counterparts, unless Perreault and Ward are freed up to do what they can do best, unless Schultz (who I still like, just not in this series) is replaced with Orlov (who is infinitely more skilled as a rookie than Erskine can ever hope to be), the Capitals will lose this series. They will probably lose Game Four. But if the best players are put out there, then despite all of Hunter's other bad decisions, the Caps can and should win this series. They have the better players.

Looking at Possible First Round Matchups

So the Caps have clinched a playoff spot with the win over Florida and a Buffalo loss. Now what? Can a team that still has no identity, no set lineup, and is very likely being forced to roll with their AHL goalie tandem due to late injuries have a shot at surviving the first round? Well, as all Capitals fans SHOULD know by now, the NHL playoffs might as well be a whole separate season. Playing styles change, and team matchups matter a lot more when you have to see the same players and coaches for as many as seven games in a row. Adjustments and style adaptations are made more rapidly than the regular season. It helps to have a leg up on the other team to start a series, whether it's a morale issue or your players' strengths simply match up best against the other guys'.

Look back to Montreal for that lesson: the Habs were one of the few teams that Washington struggled against (read: at all) during the 09-10 season. A combination of an unconscious goaltender and incredible shot-blocking by the Canadiens led to an historic upset in the first round. Matchups, people, that's where I'm going with this. In 09-10, the top three seeds in the Eastern Conference lost in the first round, and the 7th and 8th seeds ended up playing to see who would go for the Cup. Nothing is guaranteed, and home ice can mean zilch if another team has your number and knows how to beat you. When it's all said and done, you can really only get one extra game at home, and the advantage is all about whether you win the first two games and crush the visitors' souls in the process. With all that said, before Saturday's plethora of action, here are your possible first round matchups:

• 1st seed Rangers vs. 8th seed Capitals (1-2-0, 70 SF, 93 SA, 9 GF, 10 GA, 12.5 PP%, 91.7 PK%):
  
  Obviously the season series has yet to be decided, but this is your most likely matchup, as it will occur if both Ottawa and Florida get at least one point in their final games. And really, the numbers don't look too bad. Yes, the Caps did lose two of the three games, but despite being outshot by 23, the Rangers have only scored one more goal than our boys in red. The special teams numbers also favor the Caps, and with Backstrom and Green both healthy, the good news there could keep up. Throw in the fact that the Caps defeated the Rangers in five games last year, and seven two years before that, and you begin to see that things are a bit more even than they appear. History absolutely matters in the playoffs. Mental toughness goes a long way, and knowing that a lot of the guys you're playing against were directly responsible for your mid-April tee times two of the past three seasons will weigh on you. The final game of the regular season could just be the beginning of a best-of-eight rather than a best-of-seven. I honestly believe the Caps could win in six games, barring any further injuries to key players.
  
• 2nd seed Bruins vs. 7th seed Capitals (3-1-0, 112 SF, 123 SA, 13 GF, 12 GA, 16.7 PP%, 87.5 PK%):
  
  If the Caps win their last game, the Panthers get a point, and the Senators lose in regulation, this will be your matchup. Despite what I have been seeing for the past 24 hours, I think this is absolutely the best possible matchup for this year's team. The Caps have had Boston's number for years now. Tim Thomas' career numbers against the team may be impressive (14-5-3 with a GAA of 2.46 and a .923 save % in 23 games vs. the Caps; h/t to Japers' Rink for the numbers), but he is 6-4-2 over the last four seasons, including his 3-0-0 record in his record-setting season last year. Our secondary scorers match up very well against this team, most notably Mathieu Perreault, who recorded his first career hat trick against Boston and Thomas in a 5-0 rout. They may be last year's Cup champions, but that doesn't always hold a lot of sway. Again, I think the Caps could win this in six, but having Holtby in net (who I'd still rather have in net any day than the league's 10th-worst goalie in Neuvirth) coupled with the Bruins 7-2-1 record in games 72-81 obviously has me a bit worried. But so does this whole season. Even still, I'd rather see this matchup in the first round rather than...
  
• 3rd seed Capitals vs. 6th seed Devils (1-1-2, 85 SF, 100 SA, 8 GF, 13 GA, 0 PP%, 88.9 PK%):
  
  Should the Capitals defeat the Rangers and Florida loses to Carolina in regulation, the Caps will squeak out another Southeast Division title and claim the third seed in the Eastern Conference. Their opponents in this scenario will be the New Jersey Devils, a team against whom they have their second worst goal differential (Buffalo outscored the Caps by eight goals this season), and have failed to cash in on 14 power play opportunities. They are the only team in the East that the Caps have failed to score a powerplay goal against, although both teams have scored once while shorthanded. Johan Hedburg allowed two goals against on 40 shots in 125 minutes of ice time against DC, and likely starter Martin Brodeur... well, he is Martin Brodeur. Parise is playing for a huge contract in the offseason, and Kovalchuk will want to show up his fellow Russian stars. The Devils got better against the Caps as the season went on, losing the first game 3-1, then winning in two shootouts before shutting out Washington completely 5-0 last month. While this could have the makings of a fantastic playoff series, with the last minute division champs in Washington playing against the highly skilled and well-decorated Devils and Russian superstars as far as the eye can see, not to mention the home ice advantage Washington would enjoy, I have a feeling Ovechkin and company would be breaking out their clubs after just five games. I just do not see a lot of upside to this series. Home ice advantage can be nice, but like I said, it's all about matchups, and this just looks like an ugly one to me.

So, what is a team to do? Jumping up in the standings requires outside help and a win against the top seed, and you have to think that the Rangers would rather face slumping Florida or Ottawa than Washington. The Panthers and Senators are the only teams with double-digit overtime losses in the Eastern Conference playoff picture, and taking longer to lose in the playoffs gets you sent packing just as quickly. In fact, the Caps have more regulation and overtime wins than Florida, Ottawa, and New Jersey. Ottawa plays before the Caps and Rangers, and Florida gets going a half hour after the puck drops at Madison Square Garden. Scoreboard watching will be rampant, and may decide if one or both coaches consider playing their B-squads at some point during the game. Because it's all about matchups, folks.

Shameless plugging time! Before the Caps played the Panthers the other day, I recorded my first-ever podcast with my friend Pamitha for his fantasy sports site The Fantasy Brokers. Nothing says vanity like saying "Hey, listen to me talk for 45 minutes!" So for those of you who want to hear me discuss my blog and thoughts on key players from the 2011-2012 NHL season and what is going on with the Caps, if you have secretly wondered what I sound like on the phone, or if you just want proof that I actually have a friend, check out his site and our podcast.

Quick Game 3 Preview

I have neither the time nor the energy nor the financial motivation to have in-depth pre-game analyses of each playoff game, at least in Round 1. This is the second season, and to base predictions of what a team will do on the regular season or a minuscule sample of Round 1 games is not enough. If you need any proof of that statement, I want you to look at my previous posts and what I had to say about Michal Neuvirth and Jason Chimera. These are the two players that I assured everyone around me would be the cause of the Capitals' first round playoff loss.

Arnott likes to tempt fate: Not wearing a helmet and expecting
no concussions; Joining the Capitals for a deep playoff run, etc.

Neuvirth, I said, was the Caps' worst goalie, that his AHL Calder Cup wins could not hope to compare to the Stanley Cup playoffs, that he could not win a game without offensive support because of his tendency to allow an early goal and put his team behind so quickly in a game. Instead, Neuvirth is the kid that has allowed one goal across 138+ minutes of hockey while his team has scored only four in that same timespan. He may not have had to make the flashiest plays of all time (see, i.e. Varlamov's save on Crosby in '09), but he has come up huge for the team. Nothing will change the fact that I and many others believe him to be the team's worst option in net, but he is getting it done, and while he is statistically our weakest goaltender, he is still a hell of a lot better than many other teams' best options.

Jason Chimera, I said, was only good for over-skating the play, whiffing on goals, and being on ice when the bad guys score. After Game 1 I thought I had been prove correct. In Game 2, however, it was as though he had read my criticism and decided that was the day he would score the game winner on a beautiful play that made Lundqvist's head spin. He may have had a lot of support from Laich and Johansson, but Chimera was in the right spot, took the right shot, and earned the second star of the game. If he keeps up that kind of play, then I will be rooting to see Marco Sturm sit for Eric Fehr instead of Chimera. Again, nothing will change the fact that I believe Fehr to be a better player than Chimera. But if he performs to his potential, or above his potential, then whoever is not doing so needs to see some bench time for F16, and right now that looks to be Marco Sturm, who is inexplicably on the second line with Arnott and Semin.

Gaborik is preparing to pop, lock, and
drop it... five feet wide of the net

If the Capitals can win the Cup, and I have to eat my words during the  whole run, so be it, I will be happy to do so. Because while these guys were the ones I was most disappointed to see on ice again and again during the regular season, I know that in the second season that play means almost nothing. The Capitals are experts at disappointing their fans after superb regular seasons, especially with Boudreau as coach. They have a record of 3-5 when leading a series 2-0, with the most recent soul-crushing series loss coming at home at the hands of the Penguins in 2009. Tonight, though, I expect a 3-0 lead for the boys in red and white, a 4-3 win with goals from Arnott, Semin, Green, and Gordon on the Capitals, and two from Gaborik and one from Drury on the Rangers. This is pure speculation by me, much like sitting at a roulette table and putting your chips down on numbers you happen to like that night. All while chanting C-A-P-S CAPS CAPS CAPS CAPS CAPS!!!!!

Caps vs Rangers Game 1 Recap

It's about time I put the official photo up

So I was expecting the Caps to get blown out based on previous games between these two big-market teams, Neuvirth's propensity to allow a ton of goals, and the Caps' recent history of shi... deucing the bed to open the playoffs under Boudreau. Instead we got a tight game with lots of defense, minimal scoring, and it was decided in OT. Neuvirth came into this game with a spectacular OT record. With 1:36 to go in the game, Semin rocketed the puck to the right of Lundqvist on a beautiful one-timer from veteran Arnott.

Thanks to blackout rules,  I was only able to watch the third period and OT... which is to say that I did not miss much other than having to eat a bit of crow. This is one of those times when I'm happy I was wrong. Five thoughts on the game:

1. Neuvirth performed amiably, outlasting a guy who has been mentioned as a serious Vezina contender in a battle of goalies. A couple of good glove saves on hard angle shots, and it is hard to fault him for the one that got by, seeing as he never had a chance to see the puck. There were a few times when he was saved by luck and/or the post, but if he can keep playing like this, then I won't feel quite as nervous.
   
   
2. One of the other big stories of this game was the return of Mike Green, and he did not miss a beat. Paired with Erskine for the majority of the game, Green finished with an assist on Ovechkin's first goal, 4 shots, and 4 blocked shots. He skated smoothly, was there on the offense, and showed why people were talking about his new defensive play. 52 is going to be a factor for as long as the Capitals are playing this Spring.
   
   
3. Blocked shots. The two teams put a combined 58 shots on net through almost 78 minutes of game time, but they combined for another 60 blocked. Caps had 32 blocked shots (33 on net) while the Rangers had 28 blocked and 25 on net. Only three blueshirts failed to register a blocked shot, while the good guys consolidated a bit more, with seven skaters failing to block a shot. Alzner and Schultz led the way for the game, with 8 and 6 blocked shots, respectively. This series will leave some serious bruises.
   
   
4. Semin, a key player in the last playoff series between these guys, showed up huge in the end, finally scoring a goal a year after failing to light the lamp a single time against Montreal despite a career-best 40 goals in 09-10. The goal came as a result of a miscue on the part of Mark Staal, who attempted to clear the puck directly into trade deadline acquisition Jason Arnott. Arnott, now with 108 playoff games under his belt, picked up the clearing attempt and made a beauty of a pass to Sasha Minor for the late late game winner. Semin also assisted on Sasha Major's goal, and was the only player on the ice to finish +2 for the game. With that mention, Ovechkin is a man on a mission, and from the looks of thing, he'll be damned if an opposing player will get in his way. With a goal, game-highs in shots and hits at six apiece, Ovi showed the Rangers that Staal and Girardi will not be enough to hold him back from what he wants: Lord Stanley's Cup.
   
   
5. The third line continues to be an issue for Washington. This, again, is the issue with having so many forwards. Chimera and Johansson were the only two players on the Caps to finish negative, combining for five hits, three shots on net, and two blocked shots. MJ90 slumped on the dot, as he has done all season, winning only two out of seven attempts, including some key losses in the offensive zone late in the game. Originally Laich appeared to be the other man on the line, going a stellar 13 for 18 in faceoffs, and being on ice for that first goal against along with the other two. Laich was paired with Arnott and Semin late in the game, and we all saw how that ended up. If Boudreau can find a way to make this line mesh (which in my ideal world means swapping MoJo for Perreault and Chimera for Fehr), then the Caps should see a lot more chances go their way and a lot less going against. Until three guys with complimentary styles are put together on this line, it will continue to big the team's biggest liability. As it stands, putting Sturm on a line with Johansson and Chimera makes me imagine putting three Luis Mendozas on a line together.

Playoff lines

Forwards

The Capitals are officially entering the post-season this week with their worst goalie as their starter, again, and you can read my previous post for my thoughts on that. They have had two practices with the same lines, so they have a good idea of who they are all going to be playing with for at least Game 1 (see link below). All the team's forwards are (at least believed to be) healthy. You have left wingers Ovechkin (8), Brooks Laich (21), Marco Sturm (18), Jason Chimera (25), and D.J. King (17); centers Backstrom (19), Jason Arnott (44), Marcus Johansson (90), and Boyd Gordon (15); right wingers Mike Knuble (22), Alexander Semin (28), Eric Fehr (16), Matt Bradley (10), and Jay Beagle (83); and everyman Matt Hendricks (26). That means 15 players for 12 spots. Another great quote is "A good problem to have is still a problem." This is an issue the Caps had last year, too. Who do you play? Who do you sit? I again am a big fan of playing who is the best with who they play best with. So with that, here are my ideal forward lines (ones I do not expect to see given the shuffling of players that BB has become so enamored with, and ones that are clearly in conflict with what we know they will be):

Hey Matt, you've got a little something in your eye

8-19-16
21-44-28
18-90-22
26-15-10

This means that I am sitting Jay Beagle, which can be expected as he is primarily a Hershey Bears player and an injury callup; D.J. King, which can also be expected based on the fact that he played left bench more often than left wing this season; and Jason Chimera. This last choice is the "problem" part of the "good problem to have," and really is the only debate in who should sit and who should play. Yes, having King in there to scare a Blueshirt or two might be nice for a game or two, but I'm talking about someone to have in for an entire series or Cup run.

Currently, it looks as though Fehr is not in the lineup for Game 1, and I feel that is a much larger problem than not having Chimera playing. Both players scored 10 goals this year. The difference is, Chimera played in 81 games and Fehr played in 52. On average, it takes 107 minutes and 22 seconds of ice time for Chimera to score a goal, and 67 minutes and 6 seconds to earn an assist. Fehr requires 65 minutes and 27 seconds to score a goal, and the same amount of time to earn an assist. Chimera was also a team-worst -10, with Tyler "Oh-my-God-the-puck-is-over-there-now" Sloan finishing second-worst with a -6 and Fehr finishing even. Chimera is also a good bit more familiar with the penalty box than F16, averaging .790 penalty minutes a game compared to Fehr's .308. Fehr is a player who scores more per game, assists teammates more per game, is on ice for fewer even strength and shorthanded goals, and takes less than half the penalties as Chimera. I don't see how this is a contest, but it again shows BB's weakness for certain players (Chimera, Steckel, Johansson) and utterly illogical disdain for others (Fehr, Fleischmann, Perreault). Chimera should probably get some ice time during the series, but I would prefer it was at the expense of someone who performs worse, not better, than he does.

Fleury and Boudreau were equally shocked to see Fehr on ice.

I also have Fehr on the top line. The Caps just inked Knuble, who now has eight-straight 20-goal seasons, to a one-year, $2 million extension. Knuble has been one of the more durable forwards, and while he has dry spells, he has been one of the more consistent guys, as well. However, he is set to turn 39 on Independence Day, while Fehr will only be turning 26 come September. One of these guys is probably going to be the team's top-line net crasher for the foreseeable future, and I think I'd put Knuble's new contract on Fehr being that guy. He is younger, faster, plays a similar style, and for the past two seasons has been one of the top goals-per-60 guys in the league. Why not give him the chance to make up for last year's disappointing outing in the playoffs with the best odds of doing so? He was a killer of flightless birds on New Year's, and still managed to hit 10 goals in an injury-plagued season (thanks Steckel).  On a team with so many skilled forwards, it is not a punishment for Knuble to play on the third line. A man with his skills should help youngster Johansson and speed demon Chimera put their skills together for a goal or two.


Defenders

The defenders are a lot easier to set up than the forwards. Firstly, the Caps are decimated at the blueline by injuries. Green, Poti, and Wideman, all out. Green, at least, should be back for the first game. Don't be surprised if Poti makes a surprise showing by Game 2, either. Secondly, it is pretty easily apparent which guys, in a healthy world, are best set playing with the cushy chairs in the press box. In case you don't know who they all are, the Caps' D-men are Green (52), Schultz (55), Carlson (74), Alzner (27), Hannan (23), Wideman (6), Erskine (4), Poti (3), Sloan (89), and recent call-up Sean Collins (62).  That being said, here are my picks for the defensive pairings:

74-27
52-23
4-55

This setup may actually be a little controversial for the Caps faithful, so let me explain. Carlson and Alzner have put together a spectacular season, with Carlson getting some much-deserved Calder talk, even though the award will certainly go to a forward, and Carlson would be a surprise nomination. With Green having missed so many games, and Hannan being so lackluster offensively, there is no reason to take the two youngsters off top-pairing duties. They, in my opinion, are at the core of the new system. Green is one of the league's elite defensemen, a two-time Norris finalist, and Hannan has finally developed into the solid shutdown man the Caps thought they traded for in the first place. But as noted, missed games and no knack for the net delegate them to the second pairing, at least for now.

"Well hey there, little fella! I just
need to get on through here, don't mind me.

Normally, Schultz plays with Green. However, I've always believed that Schultz held Green back, and Green made Sarge look good. This year has shown a lot of that, with Green's diminished numbers and Schultz making a good number of mistakes in his own end. Green would benefit from Hannan's experience and vocal nature, especially when he is just returning from injury. Schultz, on the other hand, being the Cap's biggest player, would benefit from playing a bit more physical - a role more at place for a third-pairing guy, and a role Erskine knows well. Were Poti healthy again, I would swap him in for Erskine. Poti is a bit more offensive minded, but can play the physical game, too. Now, in a world where Wideman is healthy, the lines change a bit:

52-6
74-27
55-23

Putting two of the league's better puck-moving defensemen on the same line has the potential to yield quick offensive results, but Wideman's propensity for making mistakes in his own end brings up some serious risks. Luckily, Green has solidified his defensive game and can minimize that risk while maximizing the reward. The skill and experience of these guys demotes the young 'uns to the second pairing, leaving Schultz and Hannan as a big, defensive shutdown pairing. That third pairing is not going to produce a lot of points, but it will absorb a lot of shots and give out the occasional big hit.

Final note: Notice how you don't see Sloan or Collins? Good for you. Sloan is the rare player who has moved between forward and defense over his career, and the still-rarer one of those players that is 30 years old and cannot keep track of the play when he is (un)lucky enough to get ice time. Collins has shown himself to be fairly capable, and I would actually prefer to have him on ice instead of Sloan, or to give Erskine/Poti a rest. But unless there is a need for him, he can't quite crack the top-6 on the depth chart. Erskine, Poti, and Sloan should never again be in the top 4 on the Caps blueline, and after this season, probably not even on the top six.

I FRIGGIN' LOVE YOU GUYS!!