Looking at Possible First Round Matchups

So the Caps have clinched a playoff spot with the win over Florida and a Buffalo loss. Now what? Can a team that still has no identity, no set lineup, and is very likely being forced to roll with their AHL goalie tandem due to late injuries have a shot at surviving the first round? Well, as all Capitals fans SHOULD know by now, the NHL playoffs might as well be a whole separate season. Playing styles change, and team matchups matter a lot more when you have to see the same players and coaches for as many as seven games in a row. Adjustments and style adaptations are made more rapidly than the regular season. It helps to have a leg up on the other team to start a series, whether it's a morale issue or your players' strengths simply match up best against the other guys'.

Look back to Montreal for that lesson: the Habs were one of the few teams that Washington struggled against (read: at all) during the 09-10 season. A combination of an unconscious goaltender and incredible shot-blocking by the Canadiens led to an historic upset in the first round. Matchups, people, that's where I'm going with this. In 09-10, the top three seeds in the Eastern Conference lost in the first round, and the 7th and 8th seeds ended up playing to see who would go for the Cup. Nothing is guaranteed, and home ice can mean zilch if another team has your number and knows how to beat you. When it's all said and done, you can really only get one extra game at home, and the advantage is all about whether you win the first two games and crush the visitors' souls in the process. With all that said, before Saturday's plethora of action, here are your possible first round matchups:

• 1st seed Rangers vs. 8th seed Capitals (1-2-0, 70 SF, 93 SA, 9 GF, 10 GA, 12.5 PP%, 91.7 PK%):
  
  Obviously the season series has yet to be decided, but this is your most likely matchup, as it will occur if both Ottawa and Florida get at least one point in their final games. And really, the numbers don't look too bad. Yes, the Caps did lose two of the three games, but despite being outshot by 23, the Rangers have only scored one more goal than our boys in red. The special teams numbers also favor the Caps, and with Backstrom and Green both healthy, the good news there could keep up. Throw in the fact that the Caps defeated the Rangers in five games last year, and seven two years before that, and you begin to see that things are a bit more even than they appear. History absolutely matters in the playoffs. Mental toughness goes a long way, and knowing that a lot of the guys you're playing against were directly responsible for your mid-April tee times two of the past three seasons will weigh on you. The final game of the regular season could just be the beginning of a best-of-eight rather than a best-of-seven. I honestly believe the Caps could win in six games, barring any further injuries to key players.
  
• 2nd seed Bruins vs. 7th seed Capitals (3-1-0, 112 SF, 123 SA, 13 GF, 12 GA, 16.7 PP%, 87.5 PK%):
  
  If the Caps win their last game, the Panthers get a point, and the Senators lose in regulation, this will be your matchup. Despite what I have been seeing for the past 24 hours, I think this is absolutely the best possible matchup for this year's team. The Caps have had Boston's number for years now. Tim Thomas' career numbers against the team may be impressive (14-5-3 with a GAA of 2.46 and a .923 save % in 23 games vs. the Caps; h/t to Japers' Rink for the numbers), but he is 6-4-2 over the last four seasons, including his 3-0-0 record in his record-setting season last year. Our secondary scorers match up very well against this team, most notably Mathieu Perreault, who recorded his first career hat trick against Boston and Thomas in a 5-0 rout. They may be last year's Cup champions, but that doesn't always hold a lot of sway. Again, I think the Caps could win this in six, but having Holtby in net (who I'd still rather have in net any day than the league's 10th-worst goalie in Neuvirth) coupled with the Bruins 7-2-1 record in games 72-81 obviously has me a bit worried. But so does this whole season. Even still, I'd rather see this matchup in the first round rather than...
  
• 3rd seed Capitals vs. 6th seed Devils (1-1-2, 85 SF, 100 SA, 8 GF, 13 GA, 0 PP%, 88.9 PK%):
  
  Should the Capitals defeat the Rangers and Florida loses to Carolina in regulation, the Caps will squeak out another Southeast Division title and claim the third seed in the Eastern Conference. Their opponents in this scenario will be the New Jersey Devils, a team against whom they have their second worst goal differential (Buffalo outscored the Caps by eight goals this season), and have failed to cash in on 14 power play opportunities. They are the only team in the East that the Caps have failed to score a powerplay goal against, although both teams have scored once while shorthanded. Johan Hedburg allowed two goals against on 40 shots in 125 minutes of ice time against DC, and likely starter Martin Brodeur... well, he is Martin Brodeur. Parise is playing for a huge contract in the offseason, and Kovalchuk will want to show up his fellow Russian stars. The Devils got better against the Caps as the season went on, losing the first game 3-1, then winning in two shootouts before shutting out Washington completely 5-0 last month. While this could have the makings of a fantastic playoff series, with the last minute division champs in Washington playing against the highly skilled and well-decorated Devils and Russian superstars as far as the eye can see, not to mention the home ice advantage Washington would enjoy, I have a feeling Ovechkin and company would be breaking out their clubs after just five games. I just do not see a lot of upside to this series. Home ice advantage can be nice, but like I said, it's all about matchups, and this just looks like an ugly one to me.

So, what is a team to do? Jumping up in the standings requires outside help and a win against the top seed, and you have to think that the Rangers would rather face slumping Florida or Ottawa than Washington. The Panthers and Senators are the only teams with double-digit overtime losses in the Eastern Conference playoff picture, and taking longer to lose in the playoffs gets you sent packing just as quickly. In fact, the Caps have more regulation and overtime wins than Florida, Ottawa, and New Jersey. Ottawa plays before the Caps and Rangers, and Florida gets going a half hour after the puck drops at Madison Square Garden. Scoreboard watching will be rampant, and may decide if one or both coaches consider playing their B-squads at some point during the game. Because it's all about matchups, folks.

Shameless plugging time! Before the Caps played the Panthers the other day, I recorded my first-ever podcast with my friend Pamitha for his fantasy sports site The Fantasy Brokers. Nothing says vanity like saying "Hey, listen to me talk for 45 minutes!" So for those of you who want to hear me discuss my blog and thoughts on key players from the 2011-2012 NHL season and what is going on with the Caps, if you have secretly wondered what I sound like on the phone, or if you just want proof that I actually have a friend, check out his site and our podcast.

Final Four - Looking at the Caps Last Four Games

The Capitals are making a surprising late-season push. Surprising, generally, for all the wrong reasons. Just about everyone (except me) had this year's team pegged for the top, a Stanley Cup favorite. Instead, with their 79th game of the season coming tonight against the Canadiens, they are in a tight battle for a playoff spot, courtesy of the NHL's worst division. As it stands, Washington sits in 8th place, two points out of 7th (although Ottawa has a game in hand), and four points behind third-place Florida. To make matters worse, they are tied in points with 9th place Buffalo, holding the ROW tiebreaker. This absurd reality goes to show just how lucky the Capitals have been: in a better, if not more competitive, division, things could be even worse, seeing as they only have a 11-7-4 record against their division rivals. With only four games remaining, each point is extremely important. So let's look at what is in store for them:

March 31 (Tonight): Montreal @ Washington

•  Montreal sits last place in the Eastern Conference, and have only scored a single goal against the Caps in three games. However, they have managed to hold Washington to a lone powerplay goal in 13 opportunities, an Eastern Conference stat bested only by the 0 for 14 powerplay shutout against the Devils this season. Not to mention that season villain Rene Bourque is now on the Habs, and news came this morning that season hero Nicklas Backstrom will make his (surely triumphant) return to the lineup this evening, and there are plenty of reasons the Capitals should easily win this game. A loss here, quite honestly, would just about crush playoff hopes and any remaining morale on the team. If they can't beat the worst team in the conference, a team they have absolutely dominated, on a night their best player from the first 38 games returns... Let's just not think about it and expect a solid win.

April 2: Washington @ Tampa Bay

• Last year's Stanley Cup Eastern Conference playoff finalists, who, as we all remember in our nightmares, swept the Caps in the second round, are in 12th place. They are nine points behind Washington, and only five ahead of Montreal. The season series record is 3-1-1. Again, there is no reason to believe the Capitals should or will lose this game, other than it has become the norm to expect the unexpected failures this season. Don't kid yourselves, though, the Lightning will absolutely be looking to play the part of spoiler. Steven Stamkos has all but locked up the Richard Trophy, and this is still a talented roster. It'll be hard-fought and close.

April 5: Florida @ Washington

• Talk about your big games. At this point, only four possible points will remain for Washington, and two will be available against the division leading team, who, as of right now, they sit four points behind. Depending on how things play out, this could be a game to take third in the conference, setting up a first round match against either Philly (1-2-1) or New Jersey (1-1-2). A loss would just about certainly put third out of reach, assuming the previous two games have not already put them out of reach of the playoffs to begin with. They should still win this game, as the Panthers are realistically an inferior team, and the 3-2-0 record against them speaks somewhat to that fact. Special teams will likely play a big factor in the game, since the Caps are clicking in at a 25% PP conversion rate against Florida, while the Panthers are coming in with about a 21% conversion rate against Washington. Should be very exciting.

April 7: Washington @ New York Rangers

•  Even at the last game of the season, against the likely top seed in the league, the two points will matter. Buffalo could still be tied with Washington, or even ahead. Same goes for Florida, or hell, even Ottawa. This is absolutely a playoff game, and even in the metaphorical sense. Really, this may be the first of a best-of-eight series for the Caps and Rangers, as the most likely matchup right now will be 1st seed Rangers against 8th seed Capitals. The season series is at 1-2-0, although Washington has only been outscored by one goal. This game, and a likely series, will be a lot closer than the standings and points would imply, especially if Backstrom, Green, and Vokoun are all healthy and at 100%. Semin and Ovechkin have returned to form of late. Johansson has finally been moved to the wing, and has seen his scoring increase. They only have three games before this one, but we should finally see a set lineup, with healthy players playing at their season best. Barring another injury, the Capitals really should win this one.

There is no real reason the Caps should not come out of these last four games with at least six points, if not all eight. Aside from that, they just about have to come out of these games with at least six points... if not all eight. As little faith as I have had in this team all season, and especially as of late, I feel pretty good about the next week. How about you?