Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Maybe I Was Wrong...

...but it is still too soon to tell. While the Caps have been the most dominant team in the league so far (see Steven Hindle's article for some more details on exactly where the team ranks in different areas), they have not even played 10% of the regular season. Everyone (who is expected to get significant ice time, that is) is healthy, and the competition has either been weak or not at their best. The Flyers are the most glaring exception to this, and that win should be the shining star of this October. Carolina and Tampa Bay are weaker team than they were last year, and while the Panthers are somewhat better, they are still the Panthers. The win in Detroit was a sign of what this team can look like when all cylinders are firing, but they were playing their second game in as many days, on the road, and with their backup goalie in net. The 7-0 start is absolutely impressive regardless of any qualifiers, and it would be impressive even if it was seven straight home games against the Blue Jackets and Jets. However, those qualifiers are still there, are still worth looking at, and do still leave some questions unanswered. This post, though, looks at some of my opinions that may result in me eating my words.
  1. Marcus Johansson should not be the second line center: He has four goals in six games, having been a healthy scratch on opening night due to his sub-par preseason play, including three game winners. All four goals came in the first period. His goal against the Red Wings was the furthest away from the net he had been for any goal. Two wrap-arounds and two hard-angle shots have gotten him off to a hot start. So you know what? I am sticking to my claim here. His primary linemates, Alexander Semin and Mike Knuble, have scored one goal each with MoJo in the lineup, and he did not assist on either one. He has been absolutely horrible at winning faceoffs, posting a team-worst 37.5% while getting the third-most faceoffs on the team behind Brooks Laich and Nicklas Backstrom. His goals all came from the sides of the net, three of them to the goalie's left plus the shot from Conklin's right. His offensive awareness is much better than last year, as are his deking abilities. But his skill set looks more and more like that of a two-way winger than of the playmaking center that the team wants him to be. Washington is so deep at forward that there is no reason to force him into a role that he just isn't suited for. Obviously it would take some line-shifting, but doing so early in the season is better than halfway through or during the playoffs.
  2. Jason Chimera will not find success with the team: This one has seriously been put into question. He started off strong, getting four goals (including an empty netter) pretty quickly and not making any glaring errors while playing on the very successful "Meat and Potatoes Line." However, he has been absolutely invisible the past few games. After last season, a successful season for Chimera pretty much means scoring a bit more, hitting a bit more, and generally not being a liability. Obviously nobody expected him to keep up his scoring pace, but the last two parts there are his most important additions to the team. For now, the third line is working so solidly together that it is hard to say that I want them to break up. Nobody was really worried about Laich's productivity or Ward's role on the Capitals, so I think that Chimera is really the key to deciding how long the line should stay together. This bears watching closely, so that if it looks like there might be a better way of matching up players, Boudreau will be able to find the combo sooner rather than later.
  3. Mathieu Perreault is not a good fit for the fourth line: I made this assertion because I think he is too gifted offensively and not physical enough to be an effective fourth-liner, so I thought he should be moved up higher in the lineup. Again, however, this has seriously been thrown into question as a result of the success the fourth line of Perreault, Jeff Halpern, and Matt Hendricks. Perreault is the only to have scored a goal so far, but those were the result of very solid defensive play and awareness. He is only credited with one hit, but he has yet to be on ice for a goal against, and as a line they have just been so good together. MP85's physicality is still an issue, though, and always will be because of his size. It remains to be seen how this will really matter on the fourth line, though, as they are currently playing like an incredibly responsible offensive threat. Perreault's spot on the team, much like Chimera's, is something to keep a close eye on. Again, for now, it seems hard to want to break up the combo.
  4. Boudreau would not be able to coach this team: So far it seems I am just wrong on this one. For the most part, each game has looked better than the last. The lines have not been shuffled much, if at all, since Beagle was knocked out of the lineup in the Pittsburgh game. Just about everything is clicking. Two possible signs of weakness: (1) the shots against are sky-high, and Vokoun (probably?) can't possibly keep up this level of play throughout the year, and (2) the PK has fallen back down to the middle of the league. Luckily Vokoun has been stellar after his debut game, and the team has been responsible and hasn't had to go on the PK much. While I certainly do not want to go back to the non-scoring ways of last season, something needs to come together to give Vokoun a break and get the penalty kill working at a similar level to last year. If the team can keep up the offense, and get the PK percentage up, BB may actually have another shot at the Jack Adams (as much as it paaaaaiinnnsss me to say it). Once things start to go awry, though, be ready to see more of the line jumbling that we've become accustomed to. Hopefully it'll just bring out more of everyone's best, rather than confusing them as it seemed to last year.
So I will say that I was wrong about Boudreau's ability to coach this team, I'll tentatively say that Perreault and Chimera are doing fine where they are, but I'm not backing down on MoJo being a lousy option at center (but he is not a lousy player). This may be something to return to once a month and check up on these guys' (and my) progress.

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Caps at Flyers Game Recap

What do I know about Ovechkin? Talbot was right.
Tonight was billed as a test for the Capitals and the Flyers. Both have had strong starts to the season, and both made some gutsy moves in the off-season, especially in net. They are both expected to be Cup contenders this year and likely for years down the road. Washington spent far less money on their star goalie, and it looks like money can't buy everything. After two tight periods, the Capitals dominated the Flyers in the third and silence the home crowd in Philadelphia. Perreault, Hamrlik, and Ward all got their first goals of the season while Ovechkin got two. It wasn't a perfect game, if such a thing exists, but it was a strong effort for Washington all the way through. It looked a lot like back-to-back 60-minute games, but that might have just been my eyes playing tricks on me. Anyway, here are my five thoughts:

  • While I still don't think Perreault belongs on the fourth line, he certainly does not seem to care where he plays as long as he is in the game. One of the stronger players for the Capitals tonight, he got the tying goal late in the first period after reading a pass and firing a low shot that deflected off one of the Flyer's skates and added an assist on Hamrlik's goal later on (first goal for each guy this season). All those people who claim Johansson is the more defensive-minded of the young centers have to be questioning themselves after these first few games. Perreault has yet to be on ice for a single goal against and is credited with five takeaways and zero giveaways. MoJo has been on ice for three goals against with four takeaways and two giveaways. MP85 also has three points (1-2-3) in four games, while MoJo has four points (3-1-4) in five. This is all while Johansson has seen far more ice time, so take all that as you wish six games into the season. Personally I have always been an unabashed Perreault supporter and I have seen nothing but play to vindicate my support so far. Both still need serious work winning faceoffs, with neither being even near a 40% win percentage.
  • Dennis Wideman came to the Capitals last year to help shore up an injured blue line and spark a floundering powerplay. He soon fell victim to injury with a nasty hematoma in his leg and missed most of the time he spent with Washington. Well, now he is on a six game points streak and has been one of the most valuable guys on the team in all six games. He is still subject to the occasional defensive lapse, but overall he makes this year's Caps all the more dangerous with one of the best defensive corps in the league.
  • All that time with awful teams was just Vokoun's way of preparing for nights like this. He kept the Caps in this game even more than the offense did, holding the Flyers to just one goal until they got a meaningless second tally with 14.7 seconds left. Oh yeah, that required him to stop 40 shots, with 41 coming before that last goal. He is making this team look a lot better than they probably are right now. 
  • Has the beast awoken? Ovechkin scored twice tonight, including a blast of a one-timer on the power play, bringing him to a season total of three. He still trails Chimera for the team lead... That right there should tell you just how much to read into goal-scoring trends in the first six games, but the Great 8 looked a bit more like his old self tonight. He laid out his old buddy Max "Ovechkin-is-a-Douche" Talbot for a questionable interference penalty and was putting shots on the net all night. Hopefully we'll see more of this Ovi on Saturday against the Red Wings, and throughout the season.
  • It's hard to criticize a team and coach that have a perfect record six games into the season, and after passing their first real "test" against another top-notch team... but that's what you have to do with a Cup contender. Just like I'm not sold on Perrault the fourth liner, I'm not a huge fan of Brouwer and Knuble on the 1st and 2nd lines, respectively. The 8-19-22 line has so much chemistry built up, while Semin and Knuble just clearly are not clicking. Semin in particular had a rough go of things tonight, being directly responsible for the Flyers scoring the first goal of the game. He may be trying to prove he does care after all, but playing cute little puck games on the blue line with Wayne Simmonds and Claude Giroux poking at the puck is asking for trouble. Brouwer said earlier today that he wanted to try and open up the ice for Alex and let him get back to his game (and become a more consistent scoring threat, himself). Obviously he was referring to Ovechkin, but I say the same attitude would work just as well with the other current Swede-Russian Alex pairing on the team. Put Knuble back where he is comfortable, and let Brouwer play his game on the second line, where he is probably more comfortable, too.
The test isn't over. Washington hosts (currently) undefeated Detroit on Saturday. The Red Wings will be playing their second game in as many days, but as of right now have not lost and lead the league in GAA. The Caps have already felled their two biggest foes in the Eastern Conference (Pitt and Philly), now they face a Western Conference dynasty. If they keep up the kind of effort we've seen so far, they'll either never lose again or all be on IR by Christmas. I give it even-up odds. NHL.com highlights below: