Caps Midseason Review

As of the 1-0 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Capitals have played 41 out of their 82 regular season games. Halfway mark seems like a good place for a midseason review, eh? Get ready, it's a long one:

Yeah, it has a few smudges, but so does this season.

• Let's jump into it: The Caps are precisely where I expected them to be, currently sitting at 8th place in the Eastern Conference, a record of 22-17-2, barely ahead of third in their division, a team with more talent than most but lacking an identity. The boys in red have been trying to find the identity they lost back in 2009 during the Montreal playoff series. Through strategy and coaching changes, we have seen the offensive juggernaut from Boudreau's early days all but disappear in an effort to "play the right way." In my opinion, which has not truthfully changed much in over a year, the ability and motivation is there, but the management is not. McPhee has not made the necessary adjustments in personnel, and neither Boudreau nor Hunter have utilized players in quite the right way. The team is almost there, playing more physical and being more defensively responsible, but it's almost to a fault now, as it appears to have come at the expense of the offense that this team was drafted and molded to produce during most of McPhee's tenure as GM. Over 41 games, we've seen a blurry picture become more clear: this is a team that will try to break the other team physically, but with the responsibility to do it cleanly and consistently. Whether this is a team that will also seek to break minds along with bodies by scoring more goals is to be seen, because the talent to do so is there and somehow needs to be unleashed.
• Every guy on the team not named Jason Chimera needs to score more goals. The physicality and defense under Hunter have largely been acceptable, if not consistently superb. The goaltending from Vokoun has largely been admirable, if not consistently superb. The offense has largely been absent. Granted, this is a problem that is somehow plaguing other teams, too. Anaheim boasts the incredible trio of Getzlaf, Perry, and Ryan, not to mention Selanne, yet they are barely ahead of Columbus for the league's worst team. Columbus, too, sports a fairly impressive roster in terms of past offense, but they can't buy a win. In fact, only 11 out of 30 teams currently sport a positive goal differential. The Caps are tied with the Ottawa Senators (who have played a league-high 45 games along with four other teams) for 12th with a -1 differential. With guys like Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom, Laich, Knuble, and Johansson, they need to be on the positive side of things.
• And then there are the injuries.

  

  Look, nobody said this season would be easy.
  Wait, they did? Oh. Well... now it isn't.

  Really, the Caps haven't had to deal with too many injuries this season, aside from Mike Green. Backstrom likely has a concussion to deal with after taking a nasty elbow from the new-Canadien Rene Bourque, and Tom Poti may actually be in a cellar marked "LTIR," but that's pretty much it. Yes, Jay Beagle has missed almost the whole season to date with a concussion of his own, but he was hardly expected to make an impact on the team this year. When your projected injury fill-in gets injured, there simply is not a lot to be said other than well wishes and welcome-backs. Still, it is hard to blame a lot of the struggles simply on missing one player, even if it is someone with Green's talent. He missed a lot of last season, too, but the team managed to take first in the conference anyway.
• Varlamov, on the other hand, has played in more games this season for the Colorado Avalanche than he did in either of his two full seasons with Washington. His numbers aren't as spectacular as they were in DC, but he has won 4 of his last 5 with a .933 SV%, 1.8 GAA, and a shutout. Of note in terms of the Caps is that he has not been injured for a significant period of time this season, if at all, despite his designation as chronically injured with a weak groin. Given Green and Poti's current statuses, Varly's problems here, and former Caps Captain Chris Clark (how's that for alliteration?) missing the majority of his final three seasons in DC, all due to groin injuries, maybe the problem lies not with the individual players, but rather with the ice, medical staff, or both. Either that or "groin injury" means in DC what "lower body injury" means for most other teams: absolutely nothing.
• Empty net goals are not something a team should rely on, and only come when your team has a lead in a close game, but they are still nice to have. Through 41 games, the Caps have only two of the "cheap" goals, good for second worst in the league. Chicago (2nd in the West, 4th in the league) leads the league with eight empty netters. Where the Caps do lead during 4-on-4, with a league-high nine goals for in those situations, while allowing four. Maybe someone should just take a slashing minor if it looks like a powerplay isn't going to go well...
• Colorado is the Western Conference team to watch for most fans interested in the Capitals' future, given that Washington holds their 2012 1st round pick and either the 2012 or 2013 2nd round pick. So where are they? Ninth in the West, with two more points and four more games played than the Caps. That lottery pick is looking a little unlikely now, eh? At least Troy Brouwer has quietly put together a solid season, leading the team in hits and chipping in 11 goals to date.
• Orlov did not make the team out of camp, but looks to have earned a permanent spot on the roster. He has unbelievable puck-handling skills, hits much harder than one would expect from a rookie of his size, and has been nothing less than an excellent addition to the team's defensive corps this season. He still makes some rookie mistakes, but he continues to adapt to the NHL game beautifully, and I expect he will look like a true pro by the time I am writing a full season review.
• Mathieu Perreault, on the other hand, did make the team out of camp because he played better than just about everyone, but nobody seems to have told the coaches. He has seen a team-low time-on-ice average (for players with 20+ games) of 9:03. Cody Eakin, who Perreault theoretically beat out for a spot on the roster, has played in 20 games with an average of 9:51. That is the kind of ice time one would expect a low-level grinder or fighter to get. Matt Hendricks, another of my favorite guys, is one of those fighters, leading the team in PIMs at 47. He gets an average of 35 seconds per game more than Perreault. MP85 has also vastly improved in faceoffs with a season average of 49%, which seems lightyears ahead of second line center Marcus Johansson's 43%. I'm not surprised to see him on a line with Mike Knuble. I am surprised that it is the fourth line, as both guys should be higher up in the depth chart. I think that Perreault deserves a promotion in the lineup, but it doesn't seem to be in the cards.
• McPhee was considered a genius by most back in July. Now there is some wonder as to whether he is going to keep his job after this season. He decided to keep Boudreau after last season only to fire the guy a quarter of the way into the season, bringing in someone else with no NHL coaching experience. The team is lacking a solid second line center after years of needNearly all the team's money has been spent. If the season ended today, the Caps would be using their own pick ahead of Colorado's. The team has been inconsistent and floundering, and has completely abandoned the identity so carefully constructed through years of drafting and trading. Three first round picks were traded away in the offseason: the 2010 pick, Varlamov, and Eric Fehr. No significant moves have been made since July. GMGM has to pass two big tests this season if he wants to keep his job: the trade deadline in 45 days, and the playoffs. If he is not able to pull off some masterful work before March, and then at least see the Capitals make it to the conference finals, Leonsis may finally have to bring in someone else. Because as it stands, this is no longer McPhee's team. This is a team that McPhee has largely brought in from the outside to fix what he thought were problems. The problem is that those problems were mostly overreactions and falsehoods, and now there are real issues at hand.
• Every game this season seems to have led the fans to question whether that particular game was representative of the team. Whether it was the 7th straight win, the 5th straight loss, or the first road win, we as fans have read a lot into each point that the team has earned or lost. Many Caps coaches, too, seem to do the same thing. Unfortunately, overanalyzing based on miniscule data sets is what bloggers and sports analysts are supposed to do, while the coaches are supposed to look at the big picture. Thankfully, whether or not you are a fan of his standard lineup (I am not, if you have any doubts by this point), Dale Hunter has been doing at least one thing right by letting the lines mesh for a few games before switching out one or two players. He seems to understand that this is a skilled roster that will not have the same sorts of lines that other teams, or even that he as a coach, typically have. Typically gone are the days of multiple line moves in a period, and that is one thing to look forward to for the second half: chemistry.



I think this is how lower body injuries happen...

• Nobody saw any of this coming once the season began. I even wrote a post saying I was wrong, that Boudreau was doing well, and that a lot of the demons had been exorcised. Well, I was wrong about being wrong. I was right. Boudreau obviously was unable to coach the team anymore, and he is gone as a result. The Capitals, in retrospect, really were winning those seven straight games as much because of scheduling and facing backup goaltenders as because of skill. The playoffs are the current goal, not the Cup. Thankfully, Alex Ovechkin has started to shake off the rust and play like his old self again. He is hitting hard, he is shooting more, and he has been scoring. In fact, he has been playing better than his old self in a lot of ways. He has been less selfish with the puck. He has played with fire when the rest of the team wants to quit. He has even been blocking shots and backchecking. Let no one question Ovechkin this year. A lot may be wrong, but it's not on the captain. Backstrom, too, has continued to play to old form. Dennis Wideman is playing some of his best hockey, and Jason Chimera is having a career year. There's a lot of good going on with this team, and every night it feels like they're going to turn the corner. We're halfway through. There aren't a whole lot of corners left. It's time to see what they can do.
• Trade talks are sure to be on fire right about now in McPhee's office. Jeff Schultz has a decent sized contract, is a very capable defenseman, and has barely played under Dale Hunter. Given Orlov's promotion ahead of him on the depth chart and the shocking callup of recently acquired prospect d-man Tomas Kundratek, Schultz appears to have lost his spot on the team. I don't think it's because Sarge lacks skill. I do think it is because he lacks physicality, and that is no longer an option on this team, even for guys who aren't listed as 6'6" and 230 lbs. As evidenced by the 19 teams with a negative goal differential, plenty of teams need a top-4 defenseman. It's only a matter of time folks. Expect a salary dump here. The Caps have less than a mil in cap space and are STILL lacking a legitimate second line center, and they cost money. I'm thinking Schultz moves for a pick or two to a bottom-15 team. He won't be the only guy gone by the trade deadline, he is just the most likely.
• So I took a page from the book over at Japers Rink, and I encourage you to read the bullet points vertically, and then do what I tell you after that. Give me a reason to update this more often!

Avs-Caps Recap and Thoughts on Value

As life becomes more hectic, posts become more sporadic. But after a (very) brief back and forth with Neil Greenberg (@ngreenberg, probably the best guy to follow for Caps stats) about Schultz's role on the team and trading, I felt compelled to say a bit more here.

For those of you who do not know, the Capitals lost to Colorado tonight 2-1. A couple quick thoughts on this before moving on to the rest:

• 

  McLeod, MacLeod, same dif. The point is, there can be only
  one (goal like that ever again or else I will get a sword and...)
  

  A lot of bloggers, fans, and game announcers called the first goal of the game, scored by the Avs' Cody McLeod from about five feet past the blue line, "fluky." I call it "Neuvirth needs to get his ass outta his head." (It's still ok to quote Boudreau and his staff, right?) That was pathetic, and if he had been paying any attention, maybe he would have put his glove up during the time it took that lob pass to make it him rather than waiting until it over his shoulder. A fluky goal banks off three players or a divot in the ice. That was a crap goal against a guy who has looked like little more than a crap goalie this season.
• Glad to see Semin scored tonight, but it is unbelievable that it was only his sixth of the season. That puts him on a 16-17 goal pace. I cannot say enough times that I think Johansson is the wrong guy to center Sasha. Not a knock on MoJo, who I have generally been impressed with this season, but just looking at the reality that something is wrong here, and realizing that you can't force a pair or trio of players to be successful if their skillsets and styles simply do not mesh.
• Knuble on the fourth line? Halpern playing wing on the second line? Halpern is a skilled guy. Knuble can grind it out with the best of them. But they don't belong where Hunter has put them recently. Neither has done poorly, mind you, but the team as a whole is not performing. The Avalanche and Jets are absolutely lesser teams that the Capitals should DOMINATE (yes, in capitals), not score a goal against in close, grinding games. Put the guys where they belong, where they have had success, and see that success return. Knuble belongs on the top line with Ovi and Backstrom. Halpern belongs on the fourth line centering Hendricks and another player. Play with the rest of the lineup as needed, but those five should be set in stone if you ask me, which I am assuming you did.

Ok, so what to do? The team, on paper, is a top-notch group of guys that should have no problem winning a cup. There are rookies and veterans, snipers and grinders, role players and elite talent. Our starting goalie is (was?) tied for the league lead in save percentage since the lockout. Leonsis has like ten dollars left to spend under the salary cap. Bruce Boudreau was fired when things took yet another turn. All the stops have supposedly been pulled out to win a Cup, and it has been the team's worst season in four years. A trade seems likely if nothing changes in the next week or two, but the way the team has performed, who would net anything of value?

The funny thing about value is that it's relative. There are a number of trades that appear to be "bad trades," but at the time they involved moving a player who simply did not work out with teammates, coaches, or both. I think that the Fleischmann trade was absolutely awful, for example, but Boudreau was clearly not going to give Flash the consistency and ice time that he needed to succeed. A point-per-game player for the Avs/Panthers and a useless bust of a defenseman for the Caps later, and it looks even worse. When a coach handicaps a player, or the talent on a team is such that a guy cannot be unleashed or properly utilized, it is probably best to move him sooner rather than later.

As bad as the team's record is, the fact remains that there is a lot of talent and a lot of money at all positions. I say move Jeff Schultz is the guy to move. I actually kind of like Schultz, and I think he can be a good d-man when he is paired with the right guy and the right system. But he has probably had one of the worst times adjusting to style changes since the Montreal series and last season's losing streak. Coach Hunter has benched him the past couple games in favor of (inferior player) John Erskine and (budding stud) rookie Dmitri Orlov. Mike Green isn't even in the lineup, and when he returns, someone else will have to be scratched or sent down to Hershey. Schultz also carries a not-insignificant cap hit of $2.75 million. Trading him for a draft pick simplifies a crowded blueline, frees up cap space, and hopefully gets Schultz some more NHL ice time. He has spent a lot of time on the top line with Mike Green during his stay in Washington, and he could fit in that role on a lot of other NHL teams. If he is not going to be used here, or if the style of play has changed so much that he is no longer a comfortable fit, I think it is best to move him now to help the team and help his career. Schultz's value in DC may have dropped as a result of the changes made over the last year, but he is still a valuable player in the league and should be able to net some decent value in terms of a second round draft pick and maybe a late round pick or prospect in a year that is supposed to have a strong draft.

Semin has been the name floated around in most rumors, and a year ago it made sense. When McPhee made the bone-headed move of giving him $6.7 million for this season, he skyrocketed Semin's face value. Any team looking to sign him has to determine if he is worth that much money while giving up something of value to the Capitals. At his current pace and level of play, he is not worth the money. That means that the Caps would not get $6.7 of value back in a trade, and would essentially be sending away a guy that has all the skill in the world, if not the desire, for someone that very likely does not have either. Not worth it for the team.

Then you have one of my favorite players: Mathieu Perreault. Perreault is a guy who is probably undervalued by the Capitals, and apparently especially by Hunter. His ice time has been absolutely pathetic, especially since Boudreau left. On a night when Cody Eakin was benched and Matt Hendricks had to sit five minutes for a fight, Perreault saw his lowest total ice time of the season, playing a measly 3:14, last on the team behind Hendy's 3:49. You better believe that there is a team out there aching for a young, hardworking forward that is in the top three for goals- and points-per-sixty minutes on his team. You also better believe that the Capitals would only get back in return what they value him at, and not what the other team would. However, much like Fleischmann, he would benefit greatly in his personal life if he was to be traded because he would surely see more ice time and greater development. But because he has the second-lowest cap hit of any forward on the team, and only if you include Jay Beagle, and because he would net very little in return, trading MP85 would be a pretty stupid move.

All of the players have fans, and all of them have value. They will not all be here when the trade deadline rolls around. Hopefully McPhee bucks his past trends of lousy trades and figures out how to properly judge value on the team under Hunter, and is able to extract the same or greater value from another GM. My vote is for Schultz, and to a lesser extent Erskine, who is a guy I think fits in between Sarge and Perreault on my makeshift value scale. Who is yours?